Four Late-Round Fliers for RBI Production

March 14, 2020

Kipp Heisterman presents late-round draft targets for RBIs. Target these MLB sleepers in your 2020 fantasy baseball drafts for RBIs late in your drafts.

RBI production is a valuable stat in all fantasy baseball formats, but it is not always an easy stat to predict. Locating solid RBI production late in drafts becomes even more difficult.

Ideally, you want players who will hit in the middle of lineups that are expected to score plenty of runs. Now, this may sound obvious to most, but locating players like this later in drafts can be quite difficult, as so many of them tend to be drafted early.

This article will lay out a few players that fit into this mold, as well as a few players that could find themselves in this situation or are on the verge of a possible breakout. In any event, each of these players should be able to provide RBI value to fantasy owners in the later rounds of drafts.

Mark Canha (OF, OAK)

Mark Canha had a solid 2019 campaign in which he slashed .273/.386/.517 with 26 HR and 58 RBI. He had a surge in home runs in 2019 by hitting 26 after never hitting more than 17 in four previous seasons. His advanced metrics tell us he had an 8.5% barrel rate, 88.5 mph exit velocity, .248 xBA, and 41.1% hard-hit rate. Each of these was better than his career norms. The biggest reason for the surge was likely due to increased playing time. Canha had 410 at-bats, which was the most since 2015 when he accrued 441 at-bats.

It is also no coincidence that 2015 was the only season that rivaled 2019 as far as production. He also pulled the ball 49.2% of the time, which was the highest in his career and was nearly seven percent above his career average. This could be a sign of things to come if he continues to transition to this style of hitting. This being said, he was still able to show power to all parts of the park, as noted by his spray chart, so pitchers won't just be able to pitch him away to circumvent his pull.

Canha is also projected to hit fifth in a lineup that scored the eighth-most runs in baseball in 2019. He will have Marcus Semien, Ramon Laureano, Matt Chapman, and Matt Olson hitting in front of him, which cannot be overstated. In 2019, they had on-base percentages of .369, .340, .342, and .351, respectively. The opportunities to drive in runs for Canha are going to be frequent, especially with consistent playing time.

Canha currently has an ADP of 271. This means he is being drafted in the middle of the 22nd round in most 12-team mixed leagues. He should provide fantasy owners with plenty of RBI upside at minimal cost in this draft position.

Miguel Andujar (OF, NYY)

Miguel Andujar was not initially going to be on this list, but with the recent injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, he certainly deserves consideration here. Andujar was a non-factor for the Yankees in 2019 as he only played in 12 games due to a shoulder injury. Therefore, we will examine his metrics from 2018, which was a season that saw him finish second in AL Rookie-of-the-Year voting.

In 2018, Andujar slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 HR and 92 RBI. It was a tremendous season from the rookie and, as mentioned above, placed him second in voting for AL Rookie-of-the-Year. The 27 home runs were a bit surprising for Andujar as he had never hit more than 16 in any one season in the minor leagues, but his power metrics were above league average in exit velocity, xSLG, and hard-hit rate. Given this information, the young talent may just be starting to tap into his power at the young age of 25. Also, keep in mind he was 23 years of age in 2018 when he put up the 27 bombs. While most of his power was a result of pulling the ball to left field, he did show some power to straight away centerfield and to right field as well.

Andujar also showed a strong ability to make contact with pitches in the strike zone, as noted by his 88.9% zone contact rate, which was six percent above league average. Being able to do this consistently is going to drive up his RBI totals. He is also projected to bat between sixth and seventh (depending on the handedness of pitcher) in a lineup that scored 943 runs and led all of baseball in 2019. It also would not be surprising to see Andujar move up in the lineup if someone like Luke Voit or Mike Tauchman struggled to begin the season.

As of this writing, Andujar currently has an ADP of 235, which makes him a mid 19th round pick in most 12-team mixed leagues. This should be an absolute steal given the amount of playing time he is expected to see and his place in the Yankee lineup. However, it is likely his ADP will continue to rise and therefore, should be monitored as the month progresses. Ultimately, he would still provide value up to a round 15 draft pick, so keep that mind as you go through your drafts.

Christian Walker (1B, ARI)

Christian Walker is one of the best bargain RBI players you will find in 2020 fantasy drafts. He has everything going for him as far as RBI production heading into the season. In 2019, he slashed .259/.348/.476 with 29 HR and 73 RBI. It a solid performance for a guy that had only seen action in 99 games across five MLB seasons, and there is reason to believe improvement is on the way.

Walker had some peaks and valleys in 2019, as noted by his uneven monthly splits.

One positive to draw here is that when he went into a slump in May, he was able to pull himself out in June. The fact that he also had a superb August should not go unnoticed either.

Walker's power metrics were also stellar. He landed in the top 10 percent of the league for barrel rate (13.1%) and the top six percent of the league in hard-hit rate (48.4%). He was above league average in exit velocity (91.1 mph) and xSLG (.516) as well. He also showed some patience at the plate by having just a 23.8% chase rate, which was below the league average by 4.5%.

Walker is projected to bat fifth for the Diamondbacks in 2020. In 2019, the Diamondbacks scored 813 runs, which was good for 11th in the league. They have since added Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun to the mix, so it is very possible this lineup will be even stronger in 2020. Chase Field also ranked 16th for park factors in terms of runs scored in 2019, which certainly does not hurt Walker's case here.

He currently has an ADP of 216, which makes him an 18th round draft pick in 12-team mixed leagues. If you are looking for RBIs late in the draft, Walker is a guy to strongly consider.

Randal Grichuk (OF, TOR)

Randal Grichuk is another under the radar value for RBIs heading into 2020. In 2019, he slashed .232/.280/.457 with 31 HR and 80 RBI. While the .232 average is not ideal, the home run and RBI production he provided for the Blue Jays cannot be understated.

The RBI production came in large part because of the home run total, which was a direct result of his power. While Grichuk found himself below his career average in a number of metrics, he was still above league average in barrel rate (8.5%), exit velocity (89.3 mph), xSLG (.427), and hard-hit rate (.378). If he is able to return to a level near his career averages in 2020, we could see a spike in home runs and RBIs.

Grichuk finds himself in an ideal situation for RBI production in the Blue Jay lineup. He is projected to bat fifth or sixth depending on pitcher handedness in a lineup that should certainly outperform its run total of 729 from 2019. He will have the likes of Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting in from of him, who put up on-base percentages of .358, 364, and .339, respectively. He also calls the Rogers Centre home, which ranked 12th in terms of runs scored and first in terms of home runs in 2019. All of this adds up to Grichuk being a late-round value for RBIs.

He currently has an ADP of 284, which makes him a 23rd round pick in 12-team mixed leagues. Depending on your league's bench size, this could mean Grichuk is going undrafted in certain leagues. If you find yourself looking for RBI production with one of your last picks, Grichuk should be your guy.

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