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Analysis of five fantasy baseball first baseman drafted in the later rounds. Are these 1B undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, it would be smart to consider drafting some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. It is essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy.
Today we are looking at some late-round first basemen for you to consider. Do we think they are draft targets or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2020 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2020 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2020 Draft Kit.
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Edwin Encarnacion - 1B, Chicago White Sox
Encarnacion continued to defy Father Time during the 2019 season. While his .244 batting average and 21.2% K-rate were mediocre, the 37-year-old managed to blast 34 home runs and pick up 86 RBI in just 418 at-bats split between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees. Encarnacion has not had a campaign with less than 32 HRs and 86 RBI since the 2011 season, and more of the same is the expectation for the Dominican slugger heading into 2020.
Encarnacion joined the White Sox talented young core in the offseason and will see ample opportunity to produce in the middle of the lineup. Over the past five seasons, his exit velocity (90 MPH), barrel percentage (11.5%), and hard-hit percentage (42.1%) have stayed remarkably consistent, suggesting that his powerful stroke shows no signs of decay. All things considered, as long as Encarnacion can avoid injury, he should be able to breeze past his current NFBC ADP of 197. Expect a healthy Encarnacion to finish among the top-15 fantasy first baseman by season's end.
Luke Voit - 1B, New York Yankees
Voit was never going to sustain his .322/.398/.671 small-sample slash line from 2018, but he remained productive when healthy in 2019. Prior to suffering a sports hernia in late July, he hit 19 homers in 94 games with a .278/.392/.493 line. After returning, he hit just .200/.319/.338, which left him with an overall line of .263/.378/.464, with 21 home runs in 118 games. A .494 xSLG and 38 barrels on the season suggest that his results were somewhat worse than you might expect in the power department, although his .249 xBA was a bit low.
Voit had surgery after the season and will enter 2020 healthy. It's never 100% clear how playing time will work out on the Yankees; Voit had to compete with Greg Bird last spring training and may see a fight with Mike Ford this year. However, Voit has done nothing since 2018 to suggest he shouldn't be an everyday player when healthy.
Voit should ultimately hit plenty of homers and drive in runs for another strong Yankees offense. His ADP of 193 seems like an overreaction to his late-season slump that was connected to his hernia; his RotoBaller staff ranking of 169 is a better spot to target him. His price will rise if he is named the starting first baseman, but it will trend downward if Ford starts to gain traction.
Christian Walker - 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Heading into the 2019 season, Walker had amassed 99 career plate appearances over 61 games in four seasons. Then Paul Goldschmidt was traded, Jake Lamb picked up an early injury, and the flood gates opened for Walker. He had 603 PA over 152 games and slashed .259./.348/.476 with an impressive 29 home runs, 86 runs, and 73 RBI in what was essentially a rookie season.
The 28-year-old underachieved according to his expected stats as his xSLG was .511, 35 points higher than his actual slugging percentage, and his xWOBA sat at .358 compared to his actual wOBA of .341. Walker also made great contact last season and ranked 32nd in baseball in barrel percentage (13.1 percent) among players that had at least 250 plate appearances.
For drafters worried about the league adjusting to him in his second full season, they will be happy to learn Walker saw his walk rate rise from 8.9 percent in the first half of the season to 13.9 percent in the second. Also, he dropped his strikeout rate from 28 percent to 22.8 percent. He's the 19th first baseman off the board, and his ADP sits at 203 right now. Walker is a perfect corner infielder for a team that needs to find some pop in the later rounds of their draft.
Eric Hosmer - 1B, San Diego Padres
Hosmer had a decent season on the surface in 2019, hitting .265/.310/.425 with 22 homers, 99 RBI, and 72 runs as the primary cleanup hitter for the reloaded San Diego Padres lineup. Looking under the hood, though, reveals some brutal hitting metrics that need to be considered for his 2020 fantasy outlook.
Hosmer's 24.4% strikeout rate (highest of career), 6% walk rate (lowest of career), 73.7% contact rate (lowest of career), .160 ISO, .320 wOBA, and 4.6% barrels per plate appearance rate are all alarmingly terrible. He did hold a solid 40.1% hard-hit rate, and he was reliable against righty's (30% better OPS and 21-of-22 homers against RHP), so he could be deployed as a matchup-based option.
Hosmer is durable (at least 152 games played in seven of his nine seasons) and doesn't have much competition for playing time, so he'll get his opportunities. Expect him to hover right around what he did last season, holding a subpar batting average and contributing just enough in homers and RBI's in a somewhat-scary lineup to remain relevant. Hosmer is being taken as the 23rd first baseman at pick 219 in early drafts, which is right around where he should be valued. There are less-reliable, higher-upside options (Christian Walker, Yandy Diaz, or Michael Chavis) in his range if you choose to go that route.
Daniel Murphy - 1B, Colorado Rockies
Murphy's first season in Colorado didn't go as hoped, either for the Rockies or for fantasy owners who invested an early-round pick in his services. The veteran suffered an injury in March that cost him most of April and never seemed to get on track afterward. Ultimately, he turned in his worst performance since 2015, slashing .279/.328/.452, with just 13 home runs in 478 plate appearances.
Since winning the National League batting title with a .347 mark in 2016, Murphy's average has declined at least 20 points in each season. He has spent time on the injured list in each of the last six campaigns and will turn 35 in April. He has also lost second base eligibility for 2020, meaning he only qualifies at first base. Still, playing in the game's most hitter-friendly park lends Murphy some intrigue as a late-round flier. With an ADP of 235, he's the 24th first baseman off the board. Even a modest rebound would allow him to turn a profit at that cost.
