X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Kyle Hendricks: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

 

Kyle Hendricks: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

You'd be forgiven for not having known Kyle Hendricks' name before his call up in 2014. An 8th round draft pick by the Texas Rangers in 2011, the closest he ever came to prospect status was a #11 ranking by Baseball America. Yet this same pitcher posted a 2.46 ERA with a 3.32 FIP in 80.1 innings with the big league team last season. This despite an average fastball velocity of 89.2 mph and a paltry strikeout rate of 14.6% (compared to league averages of 92.1 mph and 20.4% respectively). This of course begs the question: is Hendricks just another short sample wonder or a diamond in the rough we missed along the way?

Looking into Hendrick's profile as a pitcher, three skills jump out immediately: outstanding control, decent ground ball numbers, and a tendency to limit home runs.

2014 Stats League Average (SP) Kyle Hendricks
Walk Rate 7.10% 4.70%
Home Run Rate (per 9 IP) 0.91 0.45
Ground Ball Rate 44.60% 47.80%

 

Hendricks' fine-tuned command is nothing new. He reliably posted far below average walk rates and home run rates throughout his minor league career. He was recognized by Baseball America as the “Best Control” pitcher in the Chicago Cubs system after the 2012 season.

Questions exist over how these skills will translate to the majors. There are valid concerns that Hendricks' lack of strikeout stuff could lead to a tendency for longer counts, fewer innings pitched, and a reliance on favorable BABIP numbers. That said, a successful precedent exists for this pitching profile: Doug Fister. Compare their 2014 stat-lines if you will:

2014 Stats Doug Fister Kyle Hendricks
Innings 164 80.1
ERA/FIP/xFIP 2.41/3.93/3.85 2.46/3.32/3.92
Ground Ball Rate 48.90% 47.80%
Strikeout Rate 14.80% 14.60%
Walk Rate 3.60% 4.70%
HR/FB Rate 10.10% 4.90%

 

Of course, Fister is the better pitcher by virtue of being established. He has a clear edge in BB% along with a longer track record of excellence in the major leagues, and he's demonstrated stronger strikeout stuff in the past. There is also a cautionary tale to be told in the Hendricks' HR/FB rate. Despite his reputation against minor league hitters, I would not bet on him maintaining such a low rate over a full season.

The differences between Hendricks and Fister aren't as large as one might guess based on their draft stock. Fister proved last year that a pitcher can survive with mediocre strikeout numbers, provided he is able to limit walks and generate ground balls at an above average clip. These are all things Hendricks has done in the past and is capable of continuing to do in the future.

Playing time may be an issue of course. Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta are locks for the first and second spot in the Cubs' rotation. Short of playing himself out of a job, Jason Hammel should slot in after them, considering he was just signed to a two year deal. That most likely leaves Hendricks and Tsuyoshi Wada to fill out the rotation, but with names such as Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood, Dan Straily, Felix Doubront and Jacob Turner behind them, Hendricks will have to produce to keep his rotation spot. However, the good news is last year's performance should mean the job will be his to lose. With his skill set, I think he has a decent shot at keeping it. Given that, I'm comfortable with the 150.0 IP figure projected by the Fangraphs' staff.

 

In Summary

Hendricks' lack of strikeout upside, the risk that comes with any young pitcher, and the sheer depth of pitching in 2015's draft class will probably push him out of relevancy in standard 10 team leagues. That said, I think he could make an interesting play in deeper leagues and NL-only formats. For those leagues in which he is not drafted, he could make a prime streaming candidate, especially on those days in which he goes up against a particularly strikeout prone squad. In the end, 80% of Fister really isn't too shabby.

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF