Kris Bryant to Giants - Fantasy Impact

July 31, 2021

Third baseman Kris Bryant was dealt from the Chicago Cubs to the San Francisco Giants ahead of the 2021 MLB trade deadline. Pierre Camus breaks down the fantasy baseball impact of this move for both sides.

It finally happened – the 2016 Cubs are a thing of the past. The core of a team that defied a 108-year curse and brought joy to one of the oldest and most storied franchises in Major League Baseball has been broken up in a matter of days.

The Cubs were 44-46 at the All-Star break and found themselves at a crossroads. They continued to tread water, languishing just under the .500 mark at fourth place in an unexceptional N.L. Central. A 50-55 record on the eve on the MLB trade deadline sealed the fate of their star infielders, all of whom will finish 2021 on contenders. Chief among those is third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, one of the most integral pieces of their championship squad along with Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez, who were also traded away.

While a fresh start and move to a better team may seem like a win for Bryant, he's moving on from the only team he's known to a less certain role in what might not be a better offensive situation. Let's dive into numbers to see what this means for Bryant's fantasy value as well as the effect on both teams.

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A Decorated Career in Limbo

Kris Bryant debuted in 2015 once the farce of service-time manipulation was settled by mid-April. He made an immediate splash, batting .360 with seven RBI in his first week as a Major Leaguer. He wound up batting .275 with 26 HR, 99 RBI, and 13 SB, easily winning NL Rookie of the Year. He followed up with an MVP season by slashing .292/.385/.554, hitting 39 HR, driving in 102 runs, and scoring a league-best 121 runs. Most importantly, he led the way for a historic postseason run where he hit .308 and became a hero in Chicago.

Bryant has been an All-Star four times, leading the Cubs to five postseason appearances in the past six years. However, his personal track record has been cloudier as of late. Injuries and inconsistency sapped him of power in 2018, leading to a down year with 13 homers across 389 at-bats. He bounced back in 2019 but was one of many players to suffer statistically in the shortened 2020 season. His slash line of .206/.293/.351 represented career-lows across the board and he only managed to drive in 11 runs across 34 games.

Trade rumors have surrounded Bryant since well before the 2021 season began, but he has pushed through to rank as the 44th-best hitter in terms of 5x5 roto production. He isn't necessarily enjoying one of the best seasons of his career but it's a strong bounce back from last year, particularly in the batting average department with an xBA to back it up.

Prime-age Bryant may not return, but he is proving to be a valuable player once more. The fact he has been successful despite the constant questions about being traded and the struggles of his team are a testament to his professionalism. The bittersweet sentiment of leaving Chicago to join a contender out west may not faze him, but it may impact his numbers for other reasons.

A Giant Finish to 2021?

The two factors to consider for a hitter switching teams midseason are home park and lineup context. Let's start with the one that might be most impactful.

Park Factors can be overstated in terms of actual impact, but in this case it bears mentioning that Bryant will see a big difference from Wrigley Field to Oracle Park. His longtime home digs in the friendly confines aren't typically known for boosting power, but in 2021 Wrigley is fifth-highest in HR Factor for right-handed hitters at 118 according to Statcast. Oracle Park is dead last at 72.

The swirling winds of the Bay Area have long been known to suppress power and the numbers prove that it is indeed the case. Oracle Park has been below league-average in HR Factor on both sides of the plate every year of its inception since 2000. It has been among the lowest in HR Factor for right-handed hitters for 12 straight years. That's a big consideration.

Bryant has hit for power all season with 18 home runs, 19 doubles, and a .503 slugging percentage. His 10.1% Barrel%, 38.7% HardHit%, and .416 xwoBACON are all the highest he's posted since that magical 2016 season.

While expected home runs (xHR) are an inexact metric, it should be noted that Bryant has been the single biggest overachiever on HR-xHR this season. While he has 18 HR at this time, his 12.2 xHR is far lower. It's not quite as low at Oracle, with a 15 xHR on his jacks this season.

The schedule is quite favorable despite the fact he joins an ultra-competitive N.L. West. The Giants only face the Dodgers for one three-game series the rest of the way, which is kind of disappointing. They will meet the Padres a whopping 10 times, but that's offset by 10 games against the Rockies and seven versus the Diamondbacks.

According to manager Gabe Kapler, Bryant is open to anything as far as position in the field or batting order.

"I’m down to play anywhere. I’m down to hit anywhere. I just want to help this team win."

This is the perfect fit for San Francisco and Kapler's mix-and-match mentality. Part of the reason Bryant was targeted by the team is his versatility. Bryant has played both corner infield spots and every outfield spot regularly this season. He's played well at each spot defensively too.

His positional eligibility is already in place and serves to make him more valuable in both reality and fantasy. As far as batting order, RosterResource currently projects him to bat cleanup, which makes sense since the Giants were looking for a middle-of-the-order bat. Bryant has spent 70% of his PAs this year batting second, 24% in the cleanup spot, and 3% in the third spot. Historically, he has performed best when batting second (.291 in 1,889 career AB) or fifth (.319 in 235 career PA). It's not as if the third or fourth spot has been a problem and it should be ideal for his RBI production. Ideally, Buster Posey stays healthy and Mike Yastrzemski has a stronger second half if they are going to hit in front of him.

Ultimately, it would almost be a shock if his HR rate didn't decline based on a career-high 20.9% HR/FB% and a home park that works against right-handed power. His RBI total could see a slight uptick and his batting average should hold steady since there's only a .004 gap between BA-xBA.

New-Look Giants

Although San Francisco only acquired one player, the inevitable domino effect has already begun. Former Yankee outfielder Mike Tauchman was designated for assignment after slashing .178/.286/.283 in 166 at-bats since joining the team on April 27. The addition of Bryant also pushes Wilmer Flores from third base to second base on many occasions and could relegate Donovan Solano to a pinch-hitting role full-time. Part-time players like Steven Duggar, Austin Slater, and Thairo Estrada may barely see the field anymore if/when this team is at full strength.

Once Evan Longoria is ready to return, he will resume duties at third base and we could see Bryant in the outfield five times a week. That is, assuming Brandon Belt is also able to return at some point. This very veteran team is rife with injuries, which again is why Bryant's versatility is so valuable. He may move around the field on any given night but that is mostly a DFS consideration and won't change much for season-long fantasy managers.

The hodgepodge nature of the Giants offense has meant very few consistent fantasy performers outside of Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, and Evan Longoria, all of whom are either on the injured list or just coming off of it. Although Bryant will help the team as a whole, it doesn't create much of a ripple effect in terms of fantasy except for providing a small boost to those veterans who were already producing at a high level. Again, assuming they ever stay healthy enough to play.

Meet the Cubbies

In exchange for Bryant, the Cubs received two young players that might seem like an underwhelming haul at first. Prospects Alexander Canario (San Francisco's No. 9 prospect according to MLB Pipeline) and right-handed pitcher Caleb Killian (San Fran's 30th prospect) will offer some hope for the future, although it's hard to imagine they couldn't have fetched more.

Marco Luciano would be asking too much and the Giants were reportedly not willing to consider moving Joey Bart, but a player like Luis Matos would be slightly more enticing or an upgrade at pitcher such as Sean Hjelle instead of Killian who could project into a mid-relief role. Then again, the Giants are simply using Bryant for a two-month stretch before attempting to take down the Dodgers in the postseason and are unlikely to sign or even pursue him in free agency. The Cubs fandom will be left wanting for more but they will be staring at a whole new roster and farm system from here on out, so it's all about development at this point.

Canario was signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic and has been brought along slowly through the minors. Now 21, Canario is slashing .235/.325/.433 with nine HR, 29 RBI, and 15 SB at Single-A San Jose. His raw power exceeds his speed, but he is still developing that power as he grows into his 165-pound frame. Like any young slugger, he needs to cut down on his swing-and-miss rate. His absolute ceiling may be that of Jorge Soler but the floor is a player who never cracks the Major League roster.

Killian has been used exclusively as a starter in the minors, posting a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at Double-A this season. His K-rate has dropped a tad as he moves up levels but his control has been impeccable with a total of 11 walks over 100 2/3 minor-league innings in 2019 and 2021. The Cubs clearly hope he can become a back-end rotation arm in the near future.

Canario and Killian will unite with fellow prospects including right-handed pitchers Anderson Espinoza, Alexander Vizcaino, left-hander Bailey Horn, second baseman Nick Madrigal, and outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kevin Alcántara. It may be tough for the loyal fanbase to accep,t but as the playoff window has officially been closed, it appears a new one may be 2-3 years away if things pan out.

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