X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Kenny Pickett - NFL Draft Rookie Profile

kenny pickett NFL draft fantasy football rankings draft sleepers

Andrew Lalama's NFL Draft rookie profile for Kenny Pickett. Read his 2022 NFL rookie outlook, his NFL Draft prediction, and fantasy football value.

The 2022 NFL Draft Prospect Profile series features prominent 2022 NFL Draft prospects with film analysis and scouting insights. I have experience working in college football and have been studying the NFL Draft for over 15 years. My analysis is based on film study and analytics. In 2021, I profiled nine of the top skill players in the draft. Looking back on those articles, I feel really good about my process. If you're interested in judging how accurate or predictive my analysis was, here are the links to last year's articles:

A common misconception about the NFL Draft is that the college and pro games are very similar. They are not. Besides the obvious difference in speed and skill level, a college field has different hash mark distances and different rules. There are specific schemes and plays that NFL teams copy from college and vice versa. The differences between the two are understated in NFL Draft coverage. There's a reason many highly-productive college players are not considered legitimate professionals.

To that end, scouting prospects is not just about evaluating college performance, it’s about projecting traits that translate to the next level. This is not limited to just physical traits. There are certain football traits that are evident in college film and will translate to the pro game. For example, a wide receiver being able to get in and out of breaks efficiently will not change from college to pro. On the flip side, an edge rusher who got most of his sacks due to hustle or missed offensive line assignments may not have shown translatable traits on film. We will kick off our 2022 Prospect Profile series with Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Kenny Pickett - NFL Rookie Profile

Kenny Pickett is an intriguing late-blooming RS-Senior QB prospect who grew into Pittsburgh's all-time leading passer with a stellar final season for the Panthers in 2021. Pickett completed 67.2% of his passes for 4319 yards, 42 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions, leading Pitt to an ACC Championship. He also displayed notable athleticism, rushing for 233 yards and five touchdowns. Pickett had 21 total rushing touchdowns to go along with 81 passing touchdowns during his five years at Pitt. Productive with ideal size (in terms of height and weight at least), Pickett has emerged as one of the top QB prospects in the 2022 NFL Draft. While there is a lot to like about his decision-making and accuracy, Pickett has real question marks about his translation to the next level.

 

Placement Professional

The most obvious positive trait in Pickett's game is his ball placement. While most pro QB prospects are accurate (think a pitcher's control), some of them are not consistent in terms of placement (think a pitcher's command). Pickett is gifted at putting the ball where it needs to be, whether that means allowing a receiver to run after the catch, using touch in the red zone, or placing a deep ball where only his receiver can run under it. The clip below highlights another one of his strengths – being on time – as he hits the field dig against inside leverage man coverage in a tight window.

The clip below shows Pickett deliver a perfect ball to hit the wheel route in a hole with pressure in his face. In this pass concept, the wheel route is often open underneath the deep defender, so the ball must be placed on time. There were countless reps of Pickett instinctively knowing what type of placement was needed for various routes.

The clip below might be Pickett's most impressive throw on film. It's sprint-out protection with a deep corner route from the No. 3 receiver in the high red zone. It's just a perfect spot on the run.

Pickett's ability to throw rolling to his right and place back-shoulder throws was a recurring positive on film. Here's an example of both.

Many top QB prospects over the years have opted to only throw at their pro day and skip combine drills. Pickett made the confident decision to throw at the combine and by my count watching the broadcast, didn't miss a single throw. He wore gloves and displayed his elite placement ability, outshining the other QBs.

 

Arm (Hand?) Talent?

People throw around the phrase "arm talent" a lot. While Kenny Pickett obviously has a special arm in comparison to the entire population, when dealing with the elite of the elite, it's fair to be critical of his arm. Now, what does arm talent even mean? To me, arm talent is a general phrase used to describe the combination of arm strength, tight spiral, ball speed, and platform angle versatility a QB possesses. Guys like Patrick Mahomes have clearly incredible arm talent, as they frequently display a mastery of those four components. Sometimes I believe analysts use the phrase arm talent to describe simple arm strength, which by itself doesn't matter that much assuming a pre-requisite level, which 99% of college QBs possess.

My concern with Pickett isn't that I believe his arm isn't strong enough to throw down the field, pierce windy conditions, or zip the ball into tight windows. His ability to anticipate and process information quickly will help him make up for less-than-elite arm strength and make all the throws necessary. However, Pickett is a creative baller and does have a propensity to throw across his body too much. NFL defenders will make him pay more than ACC defenders, and if he continues with that habit, he's going to get picked off a lot. Mahomes and Josh Allen can throw across their bodies and get away with it because of ridiculous arm strength

Pickett has question marks regarding all four components of arm talent. The clip below is a rare bad read by Pickett, but it's also a concerning example of his lack of elite arm strength. In the face of pressure, he doesn't have the luxury of stepping up to deliver this deep ball. The result is a floater that hangs and has no energy on the backend.

The clip below shows a bad habit and overcompensation for a weaker arm. Pickett drifts to his left in the pocket and throws a late looping pass to the sideline. The trajectory of the ball doesn't need to be at such a high angle, and his overcompensation leads to an overthrow. A QB with better arm talent would have been able to zip the ball outside the numbers on time as the clearly open receiver gets out of his break.

Much has been made about Pickett's hand size. He declined to have his hands measured at the Senior Bowl, and his 8.5-inch hands will be the smallest in the NFL next year. If Pickett had a rocket arm, I'd love to ignore a seemingly ridiculous rigid size requirement. However, his lack of elite arm strength, mixed with some bad reps in the rain (at the Senior Bowl and against North Carolina), does make his hand size a concern.

There were numerous reps on film where Pickett threw wobblers, including the clip below. While the result of this play was positive, the receiver did have to double-catch the ball.

In the aforementioned North Carolina game, Pickett went just 25 for 43, taking four sacks and throwing the interception below.

It's worth noting that Pickett led the Panthers to an overtime victory in the rain, but his traits simply didn't look as impressive in the rainy conditions.

Pickett also fumbled 26 times for Pitt. Ball security is another concern for a QB with small hands.

 

NFL Outlook

Kenny Pickett is an intriguing QB prospect with franchise signal-caller squarely within his range of outcomes. A close study of Pickett's game will lead any evaluator to the same conclusions – he can place the ball anywhere on time and has coveted athleticism. He didn't luck into 47 TDs as a Senior, as his positive traits popped off the screen in terms of accuracy and making plays with his legs. However, I think NFL teams will struggle with his evaluation in terms of projecting his arm to the next level. The essential question is can he succeed when the windows get tighter and the bullets get faster considering his lack of elite arm talent? I expect a team that either plays in a dome or warmer weather to make a bet on Pickett.

When Pickett enters the league, his legs will make him a very interesting fantasy asset. However, as Matthew Stafford and countless others have taught us, situation matters a lot. Pickett can develop into a franchise QB, but surrounding him with good coaching and talent will be crucial. I rank him second among 2022 QB prospects and would be comfortable taking a risk on him in the middle of the first round.

Thanks for reading and stay tuned for more prospect profiles and other NFL Draft content.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More NFL Rookie Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Dalton Rushing

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Max Muncy

With A Pair Of Doubles Back At Triple-A
Michael Lorenzen

Tosses Quality Start
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
A.J. Puk

Likely To Miss Multiple Months
Marquis Grissom Jr.

Notches Fifth Save At Double-A
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Records Third Save
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Shane Smith

Tosses Five Shutout Frames
Roman Anthony

With Home Run No. 5 On Thursday
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Andrés Muñoz

Andres Munoz Secures Ninth Save
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall

Matthew Golden Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
NFL

Texans Trade The 25th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Giants
Jakob Marsee

Up To 18 Steals At Triple-A

Omarion Hampton Taken No. 22 Overall By Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Selects Derrick Harmon At No. 21 Overall
Denver Broncos

Broncos Build Secondary By Selecting Jahdae Barron At No. 20

Buccaneers Add Emeka Egbuka At No. 19
Jeff McNeil

Activated From Injured List
Brett Baty

Optioned To Minors
Zack Gelof

To Begin Rehab Assignment Next Week
Ryan Walker

Remains Giants Closer
Kumar Rocker

Heads To Injured List
Brent Rooker

Resting For First Time This Season
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Bryan Woo

Picks Up Third Win, Strikes Out Eight On Thursday
Cade Cavalli

Moving Rehab Assignment To Double-A
Paul DeJong

Having Surgery On His Nose
Royce Lewis

Starting His Rehab Assignment On Friday
Tyler O'Neill

Out On Thursday With Sore Neck
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Gabriel Landeskog

Delivers Six Hits In First Game Since 2022
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha

Recovering From Small Procedure
Nikolaj Ehlers

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Miro Heiskanen

Still Out On Wednesday
John Klingberg

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Evander Kane

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF