It may be hard to remember, but 12 years ago when Carson Palmer left USC and entered the NFL Draft he was the golden boy. Palmer was the Andrew Luck of his generation. The prototypical quarterback with pedigree that had great success in college and was a can't miss NFL QB. Palmer was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals and was immediately expected to turn around the miserable franchise.

He was supposed to challenge Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the AFC for years to come and in 2005, in just his second season in the league, Palmer was living up to all the hype. Palmer's sophomore year featured a 3836 yard and 32 TD campaign, ultimately pitting him against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs.

Palmer's first throw of his playoff career highlighted everything that this young stud was capable of; pocket presence, arm strength, and accuracy were all on display. A 66 yard completion to start his first throw in his first playoff game. And then, the camera panned back to where the throw originated and all of the sudden the high expectations for Carson Palmer appeared to be in serious danger.

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Palmer tore his ACL and MCL on the play and while the injury didn't derail his career as some seem to think it did (the guy still has 35,000+ yards and 224 TDs in his NFL career), it started a string of Palmer injuries that never allowed him to sustain his high level of performance for long periods of time. Unfortunately for Palmer, the injury bug continued to bite last season with another torn ACL. The result in fantasy is that owners just can't trust Palmer to play the full season and provide stability at their QB position. The good news is that this fear has depleted Palmer's value to the point where he can be considered a true sleeper. So, what has to go right in order for Palmer to return value on his average draft position (between 22 and 25 amongst QB's on most sites).

Carson Palmer Needs to Trust in His Recovery

The thing you always hear about ACL injuries is that it is a two year injury. The first year is spent battling back physically, and strengthening the muscles around the knee. The second year is about trusting the knee and believing that it's healthy enough to do all of the things you need it to do. The good news for Palmer is that he has been through this process before. After his ACL injury in the 2005 playoffs, he was back on the field in week 1 of 2016 and ended up playing all 16 games, finishing with 4,035 yards passing and 28 TD's. That was good enough for Palmer to be ranked the #3 fantasy QB that season. Palmer has had more time to recover this time around (his ACL injury last season occurred in week 10) and will have the ability to draw on his previous experience in overcoming this injury.

Carson Palmer's Weapons Need to Perform

Personally, I'm very excited about the potential of this offense. The Cardinals have had success the past few years by relying on a stout defense, but I think they finally have the pieces in place to put up big numbers on the offensive side of the ball. They have three receivers on the outside that are all intriguing. Future HOF'er Larry Fitzgerald was still able to play well when a capable QB was in the lineup. Michael Floyd brings a big body that should be a great red zone target. And John Brown brings an explosiveness (4.34 40-yard-dash) that Palmer hasn't had the luxury of playing with in the past. What I'm most excited about though is a healthy Andre Ellington. Last season, during weeks 5-9 when Ellington and Palmer were both on the field full time, Palmer averaged 264 yards and 1.8 TD's per game. Prorated to a 16 game season and you have a 4,224 yard and 29 TD season...not bad.

Carson Palmer Needs to Stay Healthy

Well duh! I know it sounds obvious, but Palmer needs to stay on the field. The good news is in the previous three times when he's had a major injury (2005, 2008, 2011) he's always returned to play at least 15 games the following season. When healthy, Palmer has always performed. In seasons in which Palmer has played at least 15 games, he's averaged 3,908 passing yards and 26 TD's. For a player getting drafted outside of the top 20 among QB's you just can't do any better.

In a 10 or 12 team league, do I want Carson Palmer as my starting quarterback? Probably not. The injury risk is just too high. However, Palmer is the perfect guy to pair up with one of the starting fantasy quarterbacks with question marks. Worried about Ryan Tannehill regressing? Grab Palmer to back him up. Scared of Peyton Manning's age and injuries piling up? Palmer is a nice option. However, the way that I believe Palmer will be most effectively drafted is in couple with Tom Brady. Palmer's biggest concern is health. Well, we know that he's healthy at least to start the season, so grab Brady and Palmer, use Palmer for the first 4 games and then potentially sell high on him while he's still healthy and you have Brady coming back. That combo sounds like a top-10 fantasy quarterback to me, and considering how long you'll be able to wait to draft Brady and Palmer, what more can you ask for?