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On Thursday we saw Doosan took care of business early, scoring seven runs on Kiwoom before blowing their late-game lead. KT and LG going under was a disappointment, as the Wiz scattered 15 hits but could only muster four runs. Now we head into the weekend and begin a new set of series some interesting matchups and also some one-sided matchups. Let's get after it!
- Thursday, July 2: 1-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 70-41-1 (62.5%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Friday, July 3rd starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Kiwoom Heroes (-162) at KT Wiz
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Kiwoom: Eric Jokisch (7-2, 1.42 ERA)
KT: Odrisamer Despaigne (4-4, 4.64 ERA)
Kiwoom is making their best case for being best team the KBO. Winners of eight of their last 10, they've averaged 6.3 runs per game with a +20 run differential. It's not like their last three opponents were scrubs either, winning series' against LG, Kia, and Doosan. They're now back on the road where the Heroes have been quite solid, averaging over six runs per game, hitting .276, and clubbing 1.3 home runs per game. Byung-ho Park snapped out of his little cold streak Thursday, hitting two bombs, meanwhile Dong-won Park and Ha-seong Kim have continued to be run producers in the heart of the order.
Odrisamer Despaigne has really come back down to earth following his impressive start. Since shutting out Kia over eight inning son May 27, he's allowed 28 runs over six starts (4.6 runs allowed per start), but if anything he's been consistent (below). His worst start was against Doosan by far, but he's also allowed a home run in five of those six starts, and consider there are outings against SK, Hanhwa, Lotte, and Samsung in there; those are some of the worst offenses in the league. His home road splits are oddly identical, so that shouldn't factor into much, but he'll definitely have his hands full with Kiwoom.
I'm shocked to see the juice (-148) on Kiwoom to score less than 5.5 runs here. I don't see why? Despaigne is at best league average and the arms backing him up in the bullpen are the worst in the KBO. This Heroes offense is thriving right now. Sure, you could look at Kiwoom runline, but their bullpen has been used an abused the last few days, so it's not worth the risk of trusting them to pick up Jokisch.
Pick: Kiwoom Team Total Over 5.5 (+112, Draftkings Sportbook)
Kia Tigers (-113) at NC Dinos (-113)
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Drew Gagnon (4-3, 3.88 ERA)
NC: Sung-young Choi (0-0, 5.94 ERA)
Kia got just three games at home before jumping back on the road to face the NC Dinos. This isn't great news for the Tigers, as they average just 3.7 runs per game as guests. In their last road series against Kiwoom, they scored eight runs in game one only to not score a run over the next 18 innings of play. Preston Tucker has been ice cold, recording just two hits in his last seven, while 36-year-old Hyung-woo Choi continues to stand the test of time hitting .323. Ji-hwan Na and Min-sang Yoo have been so hit-or-miss that their contributions haven't made much of a difference. They'll face a lefty on Friday which could complicate their run-scoring problems even more since they hit LHP at a paltry .242 clip.
Drew Gagnon has been going through some strange starts but has put up very solid numbers regardless. Over four June starts, he's allowed more than three runs just once, has allowed more than five hits just once, and he also hasn't served up a home run since his first start on May 8. The 30-year-old's 2.90 FIP is among the league's best and his 62% strand is due for some serious positive regression. He also apparently prefers to not pitch at home, as his 3.28 ERA on the road two whole points better than when at home, though he does have 20 more innings pitched on the road.
The NC Dinos had to step their game up over the last two series' against Doosan and Lotte, but they managed, going 4-2 and scoring 40 runs. Infielder Min-woo Park (hamstring) just got placed on the injured list Wednesday, so he's a hole in their lineup. However, guys like Aaron Altherr, Sung-bum Na, and Eui-ji Yang are there to lead the league's top team. The Dinos average 6.5 rpg at home and .305 as a team, so missing just one guy shouldn't be too much of a problem.
NC gets another look at southpaw Sung-young Choi on Friday, and the 23-year-old isn't exactly an ace, or even average. His last start was the first time he finished more than 3.2 innings and he's given up three-or-more in every start. However, consider each of his last two outings were against Doosan. You also don't have to look very far to see that he's given up a home run in all four of his appearances and that his control is very shaky. His 9 BB% is actually better than his 2019 mark of 13%, but his current 7.47 FIP means that we can expect to see even worse outings from Choi.
Good pitching beats good hitting in this league, so Kia certainly has an advantage in that department, but that's where it stops. NC's offense is potent and even if they can tag Gagnon for a few runs, it will be enough. Kia will likely tag Choi a bit, but they're bad against LHP so he is in a good spot to quiet the Tigers on the road where they also struggle. Overall, NC is the much better team and there is plenty of value to be had here.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-102, Fanduel Sportsbook) and NC ML -113 (Draftkings Sportsbook)
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