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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 7/1/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Samsung got a great start out of Chae-heung Choi to quiet the already weak SK lineup. Meanwhile, Kia got hit with a rain storm that postponed the game, so Wednesday's matchup is almost exactly the same as Tuesday and my writeup on that game below is almost exact because I still like that game a lot. Just like that, we're on our way into another day of the wild KBO and also the wonderful month of July.
- Tuesday, June 30: 1-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 67-39-1 (62.6%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Tuesday, June 30th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Hanwha Eagles at Kia Tigers (-230)
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Hanwha: Si-hwan Jang (1-4, 6.21 ERA)
Kia: Gi-yeong Im (4-3, 2.91 ERA)
**This is the same writeup/play as Tuesday since the game was postponed; the pitching matchups are the same**
Hanwha might have been more competitive over the last week but their 3-7 record in the L10 doesn't give them much to show for it. Si-hwan Jang steps back out after the best start of his season so far, going five innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts and two walks against Samsung. His start prior against LG wasn't too bad either, but the fact that his ERA is still north of six after allowing just three runs over his last 10 innings is quite worrisome. Sure, his 5.21 FIP says he should continue to pitch slightly better than his numbers say, but Kia is one of the better lineups when facing a right-hander.
The Eagles' lineup has put up 4.7 runs per game over their L10 but still there's not much excitement in the batting order. Five home runs over that span are the second fewest, ahead of just the heavily injured LG Twins, and Hanwha themselves are now a little banged up. Outfielder Soo-kwang Noh had been performing since being acquired over a week ago and is now out for around a month with a side injury, while 34-year-old Jin-haen Choi is also set to miss a few more games to open this week. Eun-won Jung and Yong-kyu Lee have been solid and healthy but there's just too little around them to find much value here on a daily basis.
Kia looks to get their best out of Gi-yeong Im who has been quite solid thus far. Don't be deterred by just three quality starts through eight outings, as he's only completed six or more innings three times so far; however, he's only given up more than three runs once, his season debut back on May 9. His 3.13 FIP is Top 5 in the KBO, he's walked more than one hitter in a game just once, and he's never had fewer than four strikeouts in a start. At 27 years old, he's probably being overlooked by Aaron Brooks and Drew Gagnon, but Im has been just as steady as those guys, he just doesn't work as far into games.
The Tigers get to return home for a short three-game homestand against the Eagles, which is very welcome after losing four of their last five. Kia scores just under three more runs a game at home than on the road, while also hitting .307 as hosts, second best in the league. Think of them as the opposite of Doosan. They're mostly healthy and get to face a righty who's not too good. The Tigers hit .292 against right handers, mainly thanks to left-handed hitters Preston Tucker, Min-sang Yoo, and Hyung-woo Choi.
Kia checks all the boxes here: back at home, pitching advantage, and hitting split advantage. Due to to Kia's struggles over the last week, they're looking to boost themselves back up the standings a bit, especially when playing the worst team in the league. Something I didn't even touch on was Kia's bullpen advantage, so even if Im can't go more than five again, their best will be refreshed and ready to go.
Pick: Kia -1.5 (-132, Draftkings Sportbook)
Lotte Giants at NC Dinos (-360)
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Won-sam Jang (0-1, 15.00 ERA)
NC: Chang-mo Koo (6-1, 1.37 ERA)
Lotte very clearly wasn't the favorite Tuesday but they really took it to NC's bullpen, scoring seven runs from the 7th before winning in the 11th. Dae-Ho Lee smacked two homers, while Chi-hong An also homered to increase his hit streak to six games. However, their 10 runs was the most they've scored on the road all year. They average 4.5rpg on the road and now they get to face the most dominant arm in the league. Add in that he's a lefty and that the Giants hit .206 against southpaws, and things might not look too bright for Lotte on Wednesday.
The Giants starter, Won-sam Jang is an interesting player. He's 37 and will be making just his second start of 2020 and his fourth in the last two years. He got shelled against Doosan May 12, giving up five runs on 10 hits while walking one and striking out none in just three innings of work. He'll have a tough task against the Dinos.
NC was probably quite stunned when Lotte hit up their bullpen for seven runs Tuesday. They put up eight themselves, but lost catcher Uei-ji Yang (back) but he's listed as day-to-day, so there's no telling if he'll be back for game two. Regardless they get a juicy matchup against Jang. They already hit lefties to a .275 clip while also hitting .306 at home so going against the 37-year-old should be ripe picking for NC.
Chang-mo Koo is coming of his "worst" start of the season where he lasted just four innings after giving up four runs on eight hits to the KT Wiz. No one expected him to continue at the pace he was on, but if this is as bad as it gets for him, woof what a stud. His 2.42 FIP and .221 BABIP against are easily the best in the league and now he's back at home where he has just 0.93 ERA and 34/7 K/BB.
Seeing as NC had to use their bullpen so much Tuesday, I don't want to know what their arms look like for the rest of the series. With Koo on the mound likely looking for vengeance following his last start, combined with the juicy pitching matchup for NC, this is excellent value on the Dinos early.
Pick(s): NC First 5 Innings -1.5 (-125, Draftkings Sportsbook)
KT Wiz at LG Twins (-130)
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
KT: Je-seong Bae (3-2, 3.91 ERA)
LG: Woo-chan Cha (4-3, 4.98 ERA)
The Wiz were able to scatter 10 hits Tuesday but could only muster three runs against LG. Mel Rojas Jr. registered his fifth multi-hit game in the L10 but needs some help behind him. Baek-ho Kang had an 0-fer Tuesday and hasn't hit a homer since June 21; however, Jae-Gyun Hwang has had a nice profile at the plate of late, hitting two homers with nine RBI in his L10. The Wiz get a favorable matchup against a LHP; they hit them at a .305 clip. On the road, they average 5.1 rpg and hit .276 so they're certainly no slouches. We have seen them fall flat before in good situations, however.
The Wiz will look to Je-seong Bae to even the series out and he's fresh off a solid start against the NC Dinos where he held them to just two runs over six innings. However, looking not too far back, he allowed 12 combined runs in the two starts prior to that. He's given up five long balls in his L3 starts, while his 5 FIP with a 10 BB% on the season are extra worrisome. His road splits aren't any better with a 4.28 ERA, four homers allowed, and a .288 BAA.
LG is down in the dumps over the last week or so going 3-7 and averaging just 3.4 rpg. They've dealt with some injuries and poor play but their walkoff win Tuesday could be the kick in the pants they needed. Roberto Ramos is healthy but he has two hits in his last 15 at-bats but don't expect it to last long, as this is the guy with 15 homers and 33 RBI. Hyun-soo Kim and and Ji-hwan Oh are still around and doing their best to get LG out of their 3-7 slump in the L10. They hit .270 against RHP and average around 5 rpg at home, so there is certainly room for improvement but it's definitely viable in a pitcher's park.
The Twins toss out Woo-chan Cha on Wednesday and he's fresh off his best start of the season, holding Kiwoom scoreless over six innings June 25. However, the 33-year-old carries a 6.62 ERA at home which doesn't bode well against a team who hits southpaws well. He struggles a touch with control (10.5 BB%) so he'll really need to be on his best against the Wiz.
Given KT's prowess against LHP and LG yearning for a big day at the plate, runs should be plentiful here. Neither pitcher has any ounce of consistency. I got this before the line jumped and but I still like it at 10.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-127, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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