RADIO
You had to know it was coming at some point. I've had losing days, winning days, and sweeps, but I haven't been swept across my picks yet. It was a tough card to gauge, and following a 3-0 Thursday, I was pressing myself and that's never a good thing with sports betting, especially with a new, volatile league. Regardless, tomorrow is another day!
- Friday, June 5: 0-2
- 2020 KBO Season: 50-19
However, I can't stress it enough that you need to read my analysis of the games and make the best decision for you. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? If you don't want to get run dry, trust what the numbers tell you, manage your bankroll to your means and even if a pick loses, you did what you thought was right. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Yes, I've had success but I'm not getting out of my means for that exact reason. This is still such a new league to all of us and we need to make sure we look at value not just dollar signs.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Saturday, June 6th starting at 1:00 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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NC Dinos (-350) at Hanwha Eagles
O/U: 9 | 1:00 am EST
Probable Pitchers
NC: Chang-mo Koo (4-0, 0.51 ERA)
Hanwha: Chad Bell (0-0, 5.14 ERA)
Chang-mo Koo is hands down the best pitcher in the KBO right now and he gets such a juicy matchup on Saturday. The southpaw has allowed just two runs through 35 innings (or five starts) and hasn't given up more than four hits in a single start. Against the Eagles, Koo has an opportunity to shut down the lowest rated offense in the league and losers of their last 12. His 31 K% is unheard of and surely due for some regression, but not against Hanwha who has 202 strikeouts as a team, the second most in the league.
NC was able to pound on the Eagles' staff early and often, winning 13-2. Paced by Sung-bum Na, who hit two of the team's four homers, the Dinos scored 10-plus runs in back-to-back games for the first time all season. Aaron Altherr seems to have found his rhythm hitting in the bottom third of the lineup, registering a hit in eight of his last 10 while slugging four home runs and driving in 15 runs during that stretch.
Chad Bell will make his third start of 2020 and after being on a pitch count through his first two starts, we should see him be allowed to work a little deeper into games. The southpaw really struggled his last time out, allowing four runs in 3.2 innings, thanks to five hits and walks apiece. It's such a limited sample size, but he is better than the 5.48 FIP suggests and is likely closer to the 4.11 FIP he had in 2019. We'll get to see how he fares against the most dominant team in the league thus far.
The Eagles' batting order has been able to muster up just 27 runs in their last 10 games. Guys like Jared Hoying and Sung-yul Lee haven't been enough as the team is hitting a putrid .236 and they still have eclipsed the century mark in the run column after 28 games. It's just hard to point towards good things with this team.
Chang-mo Koo should have his way with the Eagles lineup, there's just not enough there to suggest otherwise. While NC's lineup is deadly, I think Bell will be able to give them a challenge now that he's back into the grind and draws a home start where he allowed just 2 runs per game last season. I won't fault you for taking the NC runline, but there's just too much juice tied to that line for my liking. Also, don't forget that Hanwha has seen the total go under nine times in 13 home games.
Pick: Under 9 (-122, DraftKings Sportsbook)
LG Twins (-134) at Kiwoom Heroes
O/U: 11
Probable Pitchers
LG: Tyler Wilson (2-2, 4.60 ERA)
Kiwoom: Seung-ho Lee (0-2, 7.83 ERA)
The Twins looked lost at the plate on Friday, besides Roberto Ramos of course, bedazzled almost by loopy curveballs by righty Won-tae Choi. LG will get to face a lefty for third time in four games and that's come with varied results. They put up just six against Yoon-dong Heo on June 3, before dropping 11 on Jung-hyun Baek on the 4th. With such a a lefty-heavy lineup, LG tends to get overshadowed against southpaw pitchers, but they're still hitting .278 against them.
American Tyler Wilson has been a bit up-and-down so far but the righty seems poised to mend himself into some consistency. He's allowed 15 earned runs in 29.1 innings and is right on pace with a 17.4 K% and 5.8 BB%, but the three home runs allowed will hopefully steady out as he allowed just seven in all of 2019. He's allowed four or fewer hits in three of his five starts and had a shutout appearance against Hanwha May 26. Sure he has a 5.01 ERA through 26.1 road innings, but he allowed just 1.8 runs per game on the road last year.
The Heroes are winners of six of their last seven but Friday's win was a bit odd. They scored six runs through the first two innings and then registered just two hits the rest of the game. Ha-seong Kim is on a six-game hit streak with two homers and nine RBI, while catcher Dong-won Park might be the best hitting catcher in the league, hitting .356 with seven long balls and 27 RBI.
Southpaw Seung-ho Lee hasn't had a great start to his 21-year-old year. Over 23 innings, he's allowed 20 runs and 29 hits, including 10 extra-base hits. His five home runs allowed are already half of his 2019 total and they've all come at home, with three being in his last start. Lee is pitching about at career norms with a 15.4 K5, 8.6 BB%, and a .329 BABIP against but his home numbers this season are worrisome. An 8.47 ERA on his own mound, fans or no fans, isn't good.
LG let us down Friday but they didn't look like themselves and you can't grudges when a matchup is good. Sans the lefty pitcher versus lefty-heavy lineup, LG's should be able to exploit Lee inability to draw soft contact. Wilson isn't some stud but he's a better arm in this matchup. LG has eight road wins this season and all of them have come by two runs, meanwhile in every game that Kiwoom loses, it's been by two or more runs. Give me the Twins again.
Pick: LG -1.5 (+115, FoxBet)
Samsung Lions (-120) at SK Wyverns
O/U: 9
Probable Pitchers
Samsung: Chae-heung Choi (3-1, 3.21 ERA)
SK: Jong-hoon Park (2-0, 3.54 ERA)
Samsung was on a nice string of winning, thanks to production at the plate and consistency on the mound. That kind fo went out the door the last two games, losing both by a combined 15-1. They lost third baseman Won-seok Lee (finger) Thursday and he's out for the time being. Tyler Saladino has been tearing the cover off the ball over the last 10 games, going 14-for-33 with three homers and 12 RBI. But the lineup as a whole is still slashing just .247/.323/.386 and being the visitors doesn't help their case, as they hit just .239 on the road.
Chae-heung Choi rolls into his sixth start following a blow up against the NC Dinos. He's not the only person to fall victim to them. Take out that start and he's allowed just five runs in 24 innings this season, with two shutout outings against Lotte and Kia. The southpaw has been iffy with control at times, but has only walked more than two batters twice and has a 19.3 K% on the year. If you're a believer in recent history against a team, Choi threw 14 innings against the Wyverns last year (two starts, one relief appearance) and allowed just one run.
The SK Wyverns have won six of their last eight in an effort to resurrect themselves. While they're still ninth in the standings, they've certainly been more competitive, even in most of their losses. They're missing Min-han Dong (leg) and his six home runs for awhile, but recently acquired Heung-ryun Lee has been a nice spark with two home runs and five RBI. Jamie Romak is still looking to get into a rhythm at the plate, but he's raised his average to .269. They'll need more out of the guy who hit 103 homers over his last three KBO seasons. As a team, they're hitting . 245 against lefties this season and only .242 at home.
Jong-hun Park has been one of SK better starters, not allowing more than three runs in any start and carrying a 28/10 K/BB through his first 28 innings. His defense has cost him two runs in his last two starts, thanks to errors, but he still held Doosan to one run over seven inning May 26. The righty strands runners at a 72% clip and his career numbers say the .307 BABIP against is due to come down about 20 points.
This has the making of a pitchers duel, as both arms are underrated on underachieving teams. Samsung has the offensive and pitching advantage, but not by much. Whether it be lingering injuries or recent performance, these lineups can be targeted for lower-scoring games in their position.
Pick: Under 9 (-114; DraftKings Sportsbook)
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