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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/30/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
We're back with a new week of KBO action and things have been shifting across the landscape of late. NC is showing some signs of weakness (though they're still at the top), while Kiwoom is finally thrusting themselves into the discussion of best team in the league. Injuries are certainly starting to pile up, so it will be interesting to see if teams start to monitor workloads for pitchers or give bench guys more starts throughout the week. This will definitely be something to watch as the season trudges along.
- Saturday, June 27: 2-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 66-39-1 (62.2%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Tuesday, June 30th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Hanwha Eagles at Kia Tigers (-230)
O/U: 9
Probable Pitchers
Hanwha: Si-hwan Jang (1-4, 6.21 ERA)
Kia: Gi-yeong Im (4-3, 2.91 ERA)
Hanwha might have been more competitive over the last week but their 3-7 record in the L10 doesn't give them much to show for it. Si-hwan Jang steps back out after the best start of his season so far, going five innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts and two walks against Samsung. His start prior against LG wasn't too bad either, but the fact that his ERA is still north of six after allowing just three runs over his last 10 innings is quite worrisome. Sure, his 5.21 FIP says he should continue to pitch slightly better than his numbers say, but Kia is one of the better lineups when facing a right-hander.
The Eagles' lineup has put up 4.7 runs per game over their L10 but still there's not much excitement in the batting order. Five home runs over that span are the second fewest, ahead of just the heavily injured LG Twins, and Hanwha themselves are now a little banged up. Outfielder Soo-kwang Noh had been performing since being acquired over a week ago and is now out for around a month with a side injury, while 34-year-old Jin-haen Choi is also set to miss a few more games to open this week. Eun-won Jung and Yong-kyu Lee have been solid and healthy but there's just too little around them to find much value here on a daily basis.
Kia looks to get their best out of Gi-yeong Im who has been quite solid thus far. Don't be deterred by just three quality starts through eight outings, as he's only completed six or more innings three times so far; however, he's only given up more than three runs once, his season debut back on May 9. His 3.13 FIP is Top 5 in the KBO, he's walked more than one hitter in a game just once, and he's never had fewer than four strikeouts in a start. At 27 years old, he's probably being overlooked by Aaron Brooks and Drew Gagnon, but Im has been just as steady as those guys, he just doesn't work as far into games.
The Tigers get to return home for a short three-game homestand against the Eagles, which is very welcome after losing four of their last five. Kia scores just under three more runs a game at home than on the road, while also hitting .307 as hosts, second best in the league. Think of them as the opposite of Doosan. They're mostly healthy and get to face a righty who's not too good. The Tigers hit .292 against right handers, mainly thanks to left-handed hitters Preston Tucker, Min-sang Yoo, and Hyung-woo Choi.
Kia checks all the boxes here: back at home, pitching advantage, and hitting split advantage. Due to to Kia's struggles over the last week, they're looking to boost themselves back up the standings a bit, especially when playing the worst team in the league. Something I didn't even touch on was Kia's bullpen advantage, so even if Im can't go more than five again, their best will be refreshed and ready to go.
Pick: Kia -1.5 (+100 Draftkings Sportbook)
SK Wyverns at Samsung Lions
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
SK: Jong-hoon Park (3-3, 5.81 ERA)
Samsung: Chae-heung Choi (4-2, 3.96)
SK is pressing Hanwha for being the worst team in the KBO. They've averaged just 3.1 rpg over their L10 and they haven't won a series since the first week of June when they took two games from these Lions. To give a glimpse of their recent performance, they scored 14 runs in back-to-back games June 25-26 and followed that up by getting shutout in the following two efforts. Jamie Romak is boom-or-bust but is essentially their only run producer with Dong-min Han (leg) still out. The Wyverns average just 3.85 rpg and hit a terrible .239 on the road, though they do hit slightly better (.260) against lefties, but it's still nothing to write home about.
Samsung has had such a roller coaster last week or so. They went 5-5 but averaged 5.3 rpg, the third most in the league over that period of time. However, their pitching hasn't done them many favors surrendering 5 per game in that span, so Chae-heung Choi has some work to do to get this homestand started off on the right foot. The 25-year-old gave up just one in six innings to Hanwha June 23, but gave up 11 combined in the two starts prior (including six against SK). He's had a tough time keeping the ball in the yard lately, giving up four of his five homers in the last three starts, but SK's bats shouldn't be much to worry about. His 5.38 FIP is a little worrisome, but aside from those two bad starts, he's done a good job minimizing blowups.
As previously mentioned, SK has found themselves fighting for the irrelevance of the KBO. Their recent performance isn't any good and their struggles on the road are well documented. Choi's game isn't perfect on the mound and we've seen SK get to him earlier, but there's enough of a resume this year that he can be trusted against a team like the Wyverns.
Pick(s): SK Team Total Under 4.5 (-132, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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