RADIO
Doosan helped make Thursday a little brighter, dropping 14 runs on SK. Meanwhile, NC somehow scored two runs in their first at-bat but then proceeded to just score one more run the entire game (in the ninth inning nonetheless). A split is better than going winless, but man I can't help but feel that one was left on the table. But this is why we love the game of baseball.
- Wednesday, June 24: 1-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 62-38-1 (61.3%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Friday, June 26th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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LG Twins (-180) at SK Wyverns
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
LG: Casey Kelly (3-2, 5.00 ERA)
SK: Geun-wook Lee (1-1, 3.42 ERA)
If you told me a little over a week ago that LG would go on a six-game skid, I would've had a hard time believing you, yet here we are. They seemingly lost all of their power at the plate, hitting just three homers in their L10. Roberto Ramos is back and healthy but hasn't hit a home run since returning from injury June 18 and has just two RBI in that stretch. They're missing Eun-sung Chae, Yong-taik Park, and Min-sung Kim from the starting lineup, leaving Ramos and Hyun-soo Kim to fend for themselves. However, they are back on the road where they average 6.7 runs per game so we'll see if their recent slide affects them away from home.
Casey Kelly has been bouncing around in terms of production this year. After holding down a 2.55 ERA in 2019, he's struggled mostly in 2020, carrying a 5.00 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP over 45 innings. His 4.11 FIP says he has a little improvement coming his way. Kelly did throw a quality start against Doosan his last time out, while also holding SK to one run in seven innings June 9, so it would seem that a handful of bad outings are hindering his overall numbers.
SK somehow shutout the Doosan Bears (on the road) in game two of Thursday's doubleheader. The win ended their eight-game losing streak and earned them just their third shutout win of the year. In the two games of the double-dip, they plated 13 runs with Jamie Romak and Jeong Choi driving in six combined. Might this be an aberration due to facing a shoddy Doosan pitching staff? It's likely, as they've averaged just 3.7 runs per game over the L10. Also worth keeping in mind is that they're missing arguably their best player in Dong-min Han (leg).
Geun-wook Lee has made just five career start, all of them in 2020, and he's performed fairly well for the Wyverns. Surrendering 10 earned runs in 26.1 innings aren't the best or worst numbers, but he hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any start yet. Meanwhile his 13 BB% is very worrisome. He has faced LG three times this year, twice in relief and one start. In the start, he held them to just one run on three hits over five innings with a 3/4 K/BB.
Both of these offenses are banged up and struggling at the plate over the last week. Kelly has shown glimpses of his 2019 self, but overall has been a disappointment for LG, while Lee has been giving SK short, but effective outings. The two arms come together here and show their respective organization what they bring to the table, keeping it a low-scoring game.
Pick(s): Under 9.5 (-105, Draftkings Sportsbook)
Kia Tigers (-118) vs Kiwoom Heroes
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Drew Gagnon (3-3, 3.94 ERA)
Kiwoom: Young-gun Cho (1-0, 4.70 ERA)
Kia hasn't picked up a baseball since Tuesday thanks to Mother Nature so they're certainly nice and refreshed. Drew Gagnon gets the ball and he'll get to face the hottest team in the KBO over the last week. The former Met has just one start where he's allowed more than five runs and in each of his last three starts he has surrendered more than five hits in any start. His control has waivered in that stretch, however, but his 12/7 K/BB is plenty serviceable. His 2.77 FIP and 60% strand rate tells the real story of how he's been pitching, but one could expect the latter number to regress at some point in time.
The Tigers are in the wrong dugout if they want to score runs. They have scored 42 fewer runs on the road than when they play host. In fact in their last 10 road games, they've scored six or more runs just three times, and two of those occurrences were against KT'slowly pitching staff. Preston Tucker is fresh off a 10-game hit streak but has cooled off a bit the last three games. Min-sang Yoo and Hyung-woo Choi have been pretty boom-or-bust of late while Seung-taek Han has also struggled for any type of consistency. One plus for Kia is that they hit righties at a .292 clip, second best in the KBO.
The Kiwoom Heroes have catapulted themselves up into second place thanks to an eight-game win streak. Over their L10 they've averaged 5.6 runs per game, including the 21 runs scored in the recent LG series. Byung-ho Park has come to life this week, going 8-for-16 (.500) with four home runs and nine RBI, raising his average from below .200 up to .231 in the process. Jung-hoo Lee has contributed his fair share too, registering five multi-hit games with eight RBI in his L10. Kiwoom averages 5.5 runs per game at home but hit just .254 as hosts, so it's reasonable to think their production might regress a bit.
Young-gun Cho will be making his fifth start of the season but he has yet to complete more than five innings in an outing and in each of his last three starts, the Heroes haven't even let him finish the fourth inning. It's incredibly hard for a pitcher to get into any kind of rhythm with such a short leash but you'd have to imagine this leash gets longer as he continues to pitch. He's got a dreadful 6.12 FIP and 1.89 WHIP over just 15.1 innings, but again, until we see him work deeper into games, it's hard to truly evaluate his profile.
Kia averages the fewest runs per game on the road but now they are completely rested after two days off and have a solid matchup against a young, inexperienced right-handed pitcher. Kiwoom might be the hottest team in the KBO but following a doubleheader where their bullpen and lineup got plenty of use, I think they're in a vulnerable spot against a pitcher like Gagnon who has a fresh bullpen to back him up. From a totals perspective, Kia road unders are 16-5-1 while the under is 12-8-1 when Kiwoom is at home.
Pick(s): Under 9.5 (-120, Fanduel Sportsbook) and Kia ML -118 (Draftkings Sportsbook)
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