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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/23/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
We're back for a new week of KBO action. Last week started very strong but ended on a sour note, though we still ended up .500 from a record standpoint. There have been some interesting roster moves over the last week, like Addison Russell signing with the Kiwoom Heroes, or Jared Hoying being released by the Hanwha Eagles. The further and further we go without Major League Baseball, I wouldn't be surprised to see another foreigner step over to play in Korea.
- Saturday, June 20: 0-2
- 2020 KBO Season: 58-36-1 (61%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Tuesday, June 23rd starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Kiwoom Heroes at LG Twins
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
Kiwoom: Won-tae Choi (2-3, 4.34 ERA)
LG: Yun-sik Kim (0-0, 7.56 ERA; First career start)
Kiwoom is starting to climb up the standings, winning each of their last three series', including a sweep of SK last weekend. Offensively they've been solid over their L10, averaging 5.9 runs per game and have utilized the long ball (14 home runs) often in that stretch. Byung-ho Park made a strong return from the injured list, clubbing a homer and driving in three over his first two games back. Meanwhile, guys like Ha-seong Kim and Jung-hoo Lee are also finding a nice rhythm at the plate as well.
Won-tae Choi has been a steady arm for the Heroes, throwing five quality starts in eight attempts. His last two starts haven't been his best work, allowing nine runs over 11.2 innings while serving up four homers with a 7/1 K/BB. Lee has certainly had his ups and downs but a 4.60 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, and .285 BABIP against are overall solid numbers. He does tend to struggle on the road, carrying a 5.06 ERA and .299 BAA over 16 innings.
LG just suffered a kick to the throat by Doosan, getting swept and being outscored 29-13 over the weekend. Though they got their slugger Roberto Ramos back, the team's power has suffered as they've hit just five long balls in their L10, second fewest in the league. In such a pitcher's park, averaging 5.3 rpg at home through 41 games is a good number to have on your side but following their recent dud, LG needs to refocus heading into a very big series.
The Twins turn to first-round pick Yun-sik Kim Tuesday to make his first career KBO start. At 18 years old, he made eight relief appearances in May before being sent down due to his experienced struggles. Over 8.1 innings, he allowed seven earned runs on 11 hits but did have a 7/1 K/BB. Now the southpaw gets a chance to start against a lineup that has been trending upwards over the last two weeks.
Pitching advantage is heavily swung in Kiwoom's favor. Choi might struggle on the road but LG's power totals have been down and they're coming off a poor showing against Doosan. Kiwoom sits just a half-game back of LG and I like the Heroes to come out and make a statement early in the series.
Pick(s): Kiwoom -144 (Fanduel Sportsbook)
Doosan Bears (-175) at SK Wyverns
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Chris Flexen (2-1, 3.29 ERA)
SK: Tae-hoon Kim (1-3, 4.74 ERA)
Doosan enters the SK series looking to silence those questioning how legit they are. After dropping their fourth straight game June17, the Bears have reeled off four straight wins, including a weekend sweep of LG. They scored 29 runs in the series, but 18 came in the series table setter, but of importance here is that they are truly back on the road. As visitors, Doosan has scored 103 more runs on that road than at home for an average of 7.5 rpg.
They're still missing Jae-il Oh but could possibly get back infielder Kyung-min Hur Tuesday which will only benefit the lineup. They'll face a lefty to open the series, which with such a lefty-heavy batting order might raise some questions, but consider that lefty hitters like Jose Fernandez and Joo-hwan Choi both are hitting over .340 against southpaws and as a team, the Bears lead the league with a .311 average against lefties.
Wyverns starter Tae-hoon Kim has been around the block for 10 years now but the seven starts he's made so far this year are already the most of his career. On the surface, he's been pretty solid allowing four or more runs just two times and has only given up two homers in 38 innings. However, he hasn't had a positive K/BB in his last three starts and carries a 20/23 K/BB over his seven outings. With such control issues, his 65% strand rate, 5.28 FIP and .218 BABIP against mean he is due for some serious regression.
There's not too many scenarios so far in the KBO that make me not want to target Doosan on the road. Sure, they're facing a lefty but I'll ride with this offense against a large majority of pitchers in the KBO.
Pick(s): Doosan Bears Team Total Over 5.5 (-120, Draftkings Sportsbook)
Kia Tigers (-162) at Lotte Giants
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Aaron Brooks (3-2, 3.00 ERA)
Lotte: Jun-won Seo (3-1, 3.71 ERA)
Kia has been on a nice little run of late, winning seven of the last 10 and winning each of their last three series. They've scratched across just under six runs per game over that 10-game stretch but now they start a six-game road trip. The issue here is they hit just .246 and average just 3.9 runs per game on the road (fewer than Hanwha). Aside from Preston Tucker, the Tigers' lineup hasn't had any other heroes of late, as guys like Ji-hwan Na and Dae-in Hwang have cooled off. Infielder Sun-bin Kim (hamstring) should return this series but there hasn't been any true indication on what day.
We get to see Aaron Brooks back on the bump again. The American has been fantastic through his first eight KBO starts, allowing just 16 earned runs through 48 innings. His 3.01 FIP is one of the best in the league and his control seems to be back where it was when the season started, issuing just one walk in his last two starts. The former Athletic squared off with Lotte June 4 and allowed just two runs over 6.2 innings with five strikeouts and two walks.
Lotte has had some seriously tough luck over the L10, going 4-6 but five of those losses have come by one run. The bats haven't been too much of an issue in that span, averaging around five runs per contest, but they actually have a +7 run differential. They could possibly be without star Ah-seop Son (side) which would be a big hit to the offense, so it will be interesting to see if Dixon Machado can step up and continue his seven-game hitting streak. Veteran Dae-Ho Lee seems unfazed at 38 years old and is still hitting .301 with seven homers and 29 RBI this season.
If Jun-won Seo isn't in his best form right now, then it's hard to imagine how much better he'll get. Over his five starts since May 24, he's allowed just six earned runs, including two shutout starts against Kiwoom and Hanwha. He's struggled with control a bit though, issuing seven walks in his last two outings and his 5.61 FIP hints at some heavy regression coming his way. Could it be against Kia? He gave up seven to them in a road start May 19 but that was the last time he gave up more than three runs.
Brooks is one of the better arms, period, in the KBO. He has a 1.93 ERA on the road this year and is in very consistent form right now. For Lotte, Seo isn't Dan Straily but I think he could challenge the Tigers' lineup that struggles on the road. Neither of these lineups scare me really. With Kia on the road, the total has gone over nine just three times in their last 10 road games (the under is 15-5-1 in Kia road games), meanwhile Lotte is playing their first home game since June 11.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-115, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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