RADIO
What a terrible start to the weekend. However, it was quite a weird day in the KBO overall, but then again, what day isn't? NC wasn't able to get Chang-mo Koo much run support despite facing a bullpen arm at home. Then there was the debacle that was the Doosan/LG game. Doosan plated 13 runs themselves in the first two innings and with my taking the under and LG straight up, but with a situation like that, you have to just laugh it off and move on. These are the ebbs and flows of sports betting.
- Friday, June 19: 0-3
- 2020 KBO Season: 58-34-1 (62.3%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Saturday, June 20th starting at 4:00 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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SK Wyverns at Kiwoom Heroes (-155)
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
SK: Geun-wook Lee (1-1, 2.91 ERA)
Kiwoom: Young-gun Cho (1-0, 5.40 ERA)
At the onset of June, SK had people thinking they were about to turn things around, thanks to a five-game win streak. However, they've turned back around and went the other way going 2-8 in their L10. They're still missing slugger Dong-min Han (leg) and they're definitely feeling the effects. They've scored just 30 runs in their L10 and haven't scored more than five runs in a game since June 6. Jamie Romak isn't given many opportunities to drive guys and has just five extra-base hits since June 9. The Wyverns hit just .243 on the road and .244 against righties; the exact situation they have Saturday.
Geun-wook Lee gets the nod for SK, making his fifth start of 2020. The 25-year-old has been great, aside from a five-run outing against NC June3, but who hasn't been victimized by the Dinos? The Wyverns have been conservative with Lee, not letting him get passed 88 pitches in any start and thus he hasn't finished a six inning yet. His .226 BABIP against is surely due to regress hard as is his 82% Strand Rate, but Lee has arguably been KS's best starter.
Kiwoom is starting to heat up, winning their last three and six of their last 10, including a series win over NC last weekend. The Heroes are a little banged up at the moment and their offense has struggled for the most part despite their success. Averaging 4.9 runs over the L10 isn't a bad number at all but if you take out the 18 run outburst against NC, the Heroes average just over 3 rpg in the other nine games. No individual hitter is taking control right now and that's likely a big reason why they're struggling to plate runs.
Young-gun Cho is just 21 and has had some very interesting starts so far. After making one relief appearance, he got moved to the rotation and has yet to complete more than five innings. He's given up seven runs on 13 hits with a 6/7 K/BB which obviously isn't very good. His 6.58 FIP is very bad but keep in mind he has yet to make a start at home so a small sample size just got smaller.
Both teams are missing some key bats from the lineup and have had real trouble scoring recently. Friday's game ended 2-1 with Kiwoom scoring their two on a walk-off in the 9th. Lee has been great for SK while Cho is making his first start at home so he'll look to get things on a steadier track. In the last seven home games for Kiwoom, the total has gone over 10 just once and I don't see that changing Saturday.
Pick(s): Under 10 (-109, Draftkings Sportsbook)
Lotte Giants (-132) at KT Wiz
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Adrian Sampson (1-3, 7.78 ERA)
KT Wiz: Hyeong-jun So (4-3, 6.34 ERA)
Adrian Sampson has had a pretty rough professional career and things haven't gotten better in Korea like it does for some. Through his first four starts in the KBO, he's given up 17 runs in 19.2 innings with a 13/6 K/BB. His sky-high .429 BABIP against is surely due for some positive regression but 28 hits over his last three starts is terrible. Facing a healthy KT team at their home field will be a challenge for Sampson, but he's probably starting to worry the Giants organization.
The KT Wiz have kept a pretty constant style of play throughout the first 39 games; great hitting/run production and abysmal pitching. They average just under six runs per game on the year, but when at home that number jumps to 6.6 rpg. Over their recent four-game win streak, they've scored 26 runs and Mel Rojas Jr. and Baek-ho Kang are key factors in that. When playing in Suwon Baseball Stadium, the Wiz hit .316, the best home average in the KBO. They also hit .289 against righties.
Foreign arms typically come into the KBO and perform very well. While Sampson got a late start, he just hasn't adjusted well at all and has really been getting hit around of late. With KT at home and the offense healthy and clicking quite nicely over the last week, I like them to be able to get to Sampson. Even if they can just work his pitch count up, Lotte will have to go back into their worn down bullpen that has been getting used a ton recently.
Pick(s): KT Wiz Team Total Over 4.5 (-117, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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