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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/2/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
We had a beautiful way to end last week with a sweep and now we keep chugging along on the KBO train. One thing I will say from last week, is that if there is a team that can get their pitching under control and make a nice run through the season, it is the KT Wiz.
- Sunday, May 31: 3-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 43-15
For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Yes, I've had success but I'm not getting out of my means for that exact reason. This is still such a new league to all of us and we need to make sure we look at value not just dollar signs. Also, this article will be a little longer since it's basically a series preview.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Tuesday, June 2nd at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Lotte Giants at Kia Tigers (-182)
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Se-woong Park (0-3, 6.50 ERA)
Kia: Ki-young Im (1-3, 3.86 ERA)
Lotte is probably the most boring yet competitive team in the KBO. Their 101 runs runs are third fewest in the league, meanwhile they've hit just 15 home runs to go with a paltry .232 w/RISP, both of which are league-worst numbers. Chi-hong An has hit safely in eight of his last nine with five RBI, while Dae-Ho Lee has a hit in nine of his last 10 with eight RBI but hasn't hit a home run since May 8. This Giants lineup needs more run production from the guys around them like Jun-woo Jeon and Ah-seop Son.
Se-woong Park has been pretty rough through his first 18 innings, allowing 13 earned runs on 22 hits, eight of which have been for extra bases. He just faced Kia on May 21 and it was arguably his worst start of the season. The 24-year-old lasted just four innings while giving up five runs on six hits and had a 2/3 K/BB. In three of his four starts, he's had an even or negative K-BB%. Park has thrown just over 100 innings in the last two seasons and doesn't seem to be on a good pace for 2020.
Kia has gotten spanked around the last two series', dropping four and allowing 37 runs combined to the KT Wiz and LG Twins, both of which can stand up to any other team in the KBO. While Lotte presents a different challenge, Kia has a chance to pop off at home. They average 5.9 runs per game as hosts, compared to 3.6 on the road. Preston Tucker is the no-doubt leader on offense with with six homers and 25 RBI, while Seung-taek Han is finally contributing in his sixth season with four homers. However, they'll really look to improve on the .273 average w/RISP in this series.
Ki-young Im is on a nice upward trend, despite the lackluster record but consider it some tough luck. He's allowed 13 runs over 21 innings but just nine are earned. Oddly enough his best start of the year was at home against Lotte on May 21. He threw eight innings of one-run ball, allowing just five hits while fanning four and issuing no walks. He's had a tough time stranding runners thus far (52 LOB%) but his 2.65 FIP again point to some bad luck.
This is the exact same matchup from May 21 where Im beat Lotte and Park 6-1. The Tigers have proven to prefer being at home and that's again evidenced by their .304 average in Gwangju. Meanwhile Lotte is batting just .246 as visitors. I think the same Im from May 21 shows up and stifles the Giants while getting some much needed run support.
Pick: Kia -1.5
Doosan Bears at KT Wiz (-122)
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Hee-kwan Yoo (2-1, 3.27 ERA)
KT: Odrisamer Despaigne (2-0, 1.69 ERA)
The Doosan Bears return to the road for a three-game tilt with the KT Wiz. This is important to note because this lineup is quite the crew of road warriors, averaging 7.4 runs per game over their first 12 road contests (89 total). Compare that to just 4.6 at home in 11 games (51 total). Yes, their home stadium is pitcher-friendly, but that's a crazy difference. After the six-game homestand, they're still hitting .299 with 70 XBH, an .805 OPS, and a .327 average w/RISP. Six hitters have 10-or-more RBI and six have multiple home runs. The Bears have won three straight series and now that they're back on the road, they'll be brining the bats back out.
Southpaw Hee-kwan Yoo has honestly impressive for a 34-year-old who looked to be fading after the 2019 season. This should also immediately raise some questions. He's allowed just eight runs through 22 innings this season, which includes the five runs KT put up against him May 8. He's been tattered for 28 hits to go with a 10/10 K/BB. This is a classic case of not being fooled by a decent record and ERA. His 1.73 WHIP and .338 BABIP show the type of pitcher he really is.
The KT Wiz carry into the league's best offense after the almost first full month of play. A team slash line of .306/.361/.471 is nothing short of impressive and that's before I tell you they have 78 extra-base hits and scored 147 runs. While they scored just three runs through the first two games of the Kiwoom series, they exploded for 12 runs on Sunday. That came against lefty Seung-ho Lee and now they get another lefty in Yoo; they're hitting .326 against southpaws this year. Mel Rojas Jr. and Sung-woo Jang have made up for the loss of Baek-ho Kang and on top of them, there are four other hitter with double-digit RBI.
Odrisamer Despaigne has been absolutely fantastic through his first five KBO starts. Just six earned runs, 25 hits allowed, and a 28/5 K/BB in 32 innings is the numbers of an ace. Not to take away from his start, but a career 9.2 BB% in MLB hints that the 4 BB% he has now is set to recede a bit. And the .304 career BABIP in MLB but he's at .275 in the KBO. He's also stranding runners at a 75% clip, compared to the 64.6% rate he had in MLB. Not saying he can't improve, but at 33 years old, it's hard to imagine the difference would be that extensive.
This series is going to be fireworks. I wouldn't touch a ML or Runline to save my life, and might not this entire series. Despaigne has been outstanding but I don't see it mattering here. Doosan scores nearly three runs more on the road than at home, meanwhile KT just got done pounding a lefty on Sunday and they get to face another one on Tuesday, following a day off. If you're a trend truther, here's some back up.
Pick: Over 10.5
SK Wyverns at NC Dinos (-225)
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
SK: Seung-won Moon (0-1, 6.10 ERA)
NC: Jae-hak Lee (2-0, 4.37 ERA)
The Wyverns have found themselves playing their best baseball over the last week, entering this series on a four game win streak, including the most recent sweep of Hanwha. SK's bats came a live a bit, dropping 23 runs over that series, while surrendering just 13, but consider their opponent was none too strong. This team is hitting just .243 with a .685 OPS. However, they've gottena recent boost from recently acquired catcher Heung-ryun Lee who's hit two home runs in his first two appearances since Doosan sent him to SK. That's about it for excitement right now, as just one hitter has 10-or-more RBI with Dong-min Han on the injured list. American Jamie Romak has disappointed with just two homers and seven RBI.
Seung-won Moon has had his moments thus far, but over his first 20.2 innings, he's mostly disappointed. He's surrendered 14 earned runs on 31 hits, including 11 extra-base hits. He does carry an 18/3 K/BB or an 18.6 K5 and 3.1 BB% which would both be career bests. And then you look over at the .403 BABIP and your eyes open up a bit. He's a blow up waiting to happen.
NC got a nice kick in the pants against Samsung, losing the series, but they did get the last laugh winning 18-7 on Sunday. It was their first series loss of the season and the first time they lost consecutive games. I expect that momentum to carry over as they're probably not too happy; what competitor would be? They've plated a KBO-bets 152 runs thanks to a .296 average and .850 OPS. Sung-bum Na has been tearing the cover off the ball, while Aaron Altherr seems to be getting into a groove, hitting safely in six of his last seven along with two homers and 11 RBI.
Righty Jae-hak Lee is quietly having a good year, but is being overshadowed by Chang-mo Koo and Drew Rucinski's solid starts. The 29-year-old struggles a bit with control but limits big innings thanks to a 71 LOB%. The .290 BABIP is low but close enough to the .302 BABIP form the other eight years of his career that we shouldn't expect too much regression.
This is a greta spot for NC, following the strange series loss to Samsung. Moon is due for a bad game while Lee is quielty having a solid year that is slightly better than the rest of his career. I like NC to come out swinging early and take care of business. Their bullpen struggled a bit last series too, but the Monday off-day should do them some good to finish this one out.
Pick: NC -1.5
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