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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/10/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Well if going winless isn't a terrible way to start the week off, I'm not sure what is. I went with the public on Hanwha and Lotte and it totally flopped. I expected KT's offense to comeback to form but they really look to be struggling right now. Meanwhile LG seems to be a one-trick pony, and that trick is Roberto Ramos. Outside of him, they are becoming tough to predict.
- Sunday, June 7: 0-3
- 2020 KBO Season: 51-26 (66%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Wednesday, June 10th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Doosan Bears at NC Dinos (-210)
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Raul Alcantara (5-1, 4.63 ERA)
NC: Drew Rucinski (4-0, 2.11))
The Doosan Bears are back on the road which means runs will be scored. While they lost 12-8 Tuesday, they scored more runs than they did combined in three games against Kia the series prior. On the road this season, Doosan has scored 123 runs, the most in the KBO and more than Hanwha has scored all year! Guys like Jose Fernandez and Jae-il Oh are hitting over .400 on the road, while Joo-hwan Choi and Jae-hwan Kim have slugged five and six homers on the road, respectively. That being said, they draw a tough matchup Wednesday.
Raul Alcantara has a solid record, and interestingly enough, four of his five wins have come on the road. He got touched up for five runs by KT his last time out but still managed to fan eight hitters. He's given up anywhere between five and 12 hits in a start this year but has served up 17 extra-base hits in just 35 innings. He's certainly a solid KBO starter, but he is prone to blow-up moments and a matchup with the scorching hot Dinos won't be easy.
NC might be on one of the best runs I've seen by any baseball team in recent memory. The Dinos have assembled a five game lead over Doosan, scored 219 runs in 30 games (7.3 rpg), and allowed just 120 (4 rpg). At home they have a +40 run differential and have won eight of their last 10 in Changwon. Eui-ji Yang has a hit in nine of his last 10 as well as 16 RBI in that stretch, while Aaron Altherr seems to have caught on to KBO pitching as he's driven in 18 in his L10. Every person in Tuesday's starting lineup has a .288 average or better, so this offense has few holes, if any right now.
Drew Rucinski is battling his own teammate (Chang-mo Koo) to be called the best pitcher in the league. The former Marlin has allowed just two runs in his last three outings and both of his home runs allowed came in his second start May 12. He's carrying a 24 K% and just a 1.20 WHIP into Wednesday. Just to play devil's advocate here, but Rucinski has made all of his six starts against Samsung (2), SK (2), KT, and Hanwha, so he hasn't yet faced the cream of the crop this season.
Here is something you've heard almost every day for the past month: The NC Dinos have an advantage on the mound and at the plate. While Doosan's lineup is a force to be reckoned with on the road, NC is the team that can go toe-to-toe with them, as evidenced by Tuesday's result. Both of these plays are straight bets and I like them a lot. It's hard to ignore the over here, despite the pitching matchup as both teams are fully capable of cashing it themselves.
Pick(s): NC -1.5 (+100, Fanduel) and Over 10.5 (-116, Fanduel)
Kia Tigers (-150) at KT Wiz
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Aaron Brooks (2-2, 3.13 ERA)
KT: Min Kim (2-2, 7.83 ERA)
Kia took down the series opener thanks to a solid bullpen effort. Offensively, they took a massive hit when Sun-bin Kim (hamstring) when he had to exit the game. Kim was one of the surest bats in the lineup, and his .340 average led all starters. Now Preston Tucker has to take on an even larger role as run producer since newly acquired infielder Ji-hyuk Ryu (leg) might also miss a few games. The Tigers will get some help from their star starting pitcher Wednesday, but they'll look to take advantage of a poor KT pitching staff after scoring just nine total runs in their last four road games.
Aaron Brooks has had a fantastic start to his KBO career. Through six starts, he hasn't allowed more than five runs and has a 31/7 K/BB over 37.1 innings. His 3.26 FIP says he's in mid-season form right now and while he has walked six batters over his last three outings, he didn't walk any in his first three, so there is some middle ground to be found here. The former Oriole is building himself a nice resume to get back to the bigs, but a matchup with KT won't be the easiest matchup he's had so far.
KT is struggling to score runs right now (4.7 rpg L10) and have lost five straight and eight of their last 10. Tuesday was no different as they mustered just two runs and one was a solo shot by Han-joon Yoo. Mel Rojas Jr. did notch a hit but he seems to be cooling off following the absolute tear he was on a week ago. Baek-ho Kang officially returned to the lineup and drew two walks, but they'll need him to piece together some good games to help get the Wiz back on track.
Min Kim got sent packing by Doosan in his last start, but before that he been able to limit major damage despite a treacherous control issue. In his five starts, he has three games with at least three walks, and while he's also given up four homers, all four have come in two starts against the Bears. Outside of those two starts against Doosan where he gave up 18 hits, he's allowed just eight total hits in the other three, but the 14 walks cancel out that stat. Kim does have a low .289 BABIP, but when you walk so many guys it's hard for a batter to put it in play.
Kia has a clear pitching advantage here and with the Wiz lineup kind of scrambling right now, Brooks should be seen as a dominant arm in this matchup. Kim isn't very good, but outside of some starts against Doosan, he's been serviceable and has shown an ability to limit runs. I think this one is low scoring early with all options open once the KT bullpen steps on the mound. Overall, I think Kia wins this game but would be more comfortable eating the juice and taking it at -1 instead of -1.5 and don't feel comfortable making that an official play.
Pick: First 5 Under 5.5 runs (-110, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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