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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/9/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
We got the weekend started off on the right foot, thanks to Samsung pitching a shutout, while SK and Lotte put their bats to good use. The NC and LG pick was looking good for about half the game before the teams exploded for 11 combined runs in the fifth and sixth. Nonetheless, there was some good baseball played on Friday and I'm having a blast learning more about these teams.
- Friday, May 8 Picks: 2-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 4-1
If you’re reading this, I’m sure you already have watched at least SOME of the first few KBO games. While we don’t know many players by name, it is still baseball and our sportsbooks are offering lines. Below I’ll be diving into the runlines, moneylines, and overs and unders for the each day's slate.
I won’t promise that I’m some expert on the KBO but once I knew they were playing, I’ve been spending my evenings doing research and trying to become acclimated with the teams, players, and any stats that I can get my hands on. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. And feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Hanwha Eagles at Kiwoom Heroes (-180)
O/U: 9.5
Hanwha is 2-2 but I'm not too confident in them at the moment. Aside from their 8-4 win of SK on Thursday, they haven't scored more than three runs in a game through the first four. The pitching hasn't been great either, except when Warwick Saupold is on the mound, but it's still entirely too small a sample size. Yi-hwan Kim gets the nod on Saturday, and at just 19, he's one of the youngest players in the KBO. He made eight starts a year ago and went 4-3 with a 4.26 ERA but it's hard to ignore his 15/21 K/BB. Yikes. At the plate, there hasn't been much production aside from Kwang-min Song whose slashing .500/.529/.813 with a home run and three RBI. We still haven't heard much from American Jared Hoying, though he has driven in two runs.
The Heroes led the league in runs scored per game last year with 5.42, and they've scored 22 through their first four with 11 coming on Opening Day. Byung-ho Park is one of the best sluggers in the league after clubbing 33 homers last year, and he has two already this season. Outfielder Jung-hoo Lee hit a dinger on Friday, and the 21-year-old is slowly becoming one of Kiwoom's better players. As a team, there are six hitters with at least two RBI, so they're clicking right now. Hyun-hee Han will draw the start for the hosts. The 26-year-old has 62 career starts in 352 games over seven seasons. Between 2015-18 he made 58 of those starts and while he went 27-17, his ERA was 4.71. Whereas when he was a full-time reliever from 2012-14 and then again last year, his ERA was 3.25.
It seems that Han is better in shorter appearances so don't be surprised if the Heroes go to the bullpen early, which means the offense will be asked to pick up the slack. Luckily for them, Kim is a great arm to target when trying to put runs on the board. You could target the over here, but I like Kiwoom to cruise to victory here.
Pick: Kiwoom -1.5 (+120)
KT Wiz at Doosan Bears (-184)
O/U: 9.5
The Wiz slugged out 22 hits in a 12-3 series opening win on Friday. All but one starter recorded a hit and eight hitters recorded multiple hits on the day while seven guys drove in a run, proving it was a very good day for the team out of Suwon. Offensively, Mel Rojas Jr. continues to be a feared hitter. His .563 average is tied for the league lead, meanwhile he added his first homer of the year on Friday and he's also recorded four doubles thus far, which also tops the KBO. Behind him in the lineup is Jae-Gyun Hwang who is looking to get hot again after clubbing 20 homers a year ago. Righty Min Kim gets the ball on Saturday and he certainly has some ships to right after going 6-12 last year with a 4.96 ERA. His ratios don't help matters with a 14 K% and a near 10 BB%, all the while he served up 16 home runs.
Doosan was naturally the odds on favorite to win the league in 2020 after capturing the title last year. Their talent isn't hidden, boasting Jose Fernandez, Jae-il Oh, and Jae-hwan Kim but Jae-ho Kim has also stepped up as all four are batting over .350 through four games. While Fernandez hasn't driven in a run yet, Oh and both Kim's have driven in nine combined. On the hill will be Yong-chan Lee. The 30-year-old has been around the block since 2008, mixing between starter and reliever. In 26 starts last year, he was 7-10 with a 4.07 ERA, 16 K%, and 7 BB%. However, the 168 base knocks plus 15 homers allowed in 148.1 innings means he has the tendency to have some long innings.
Both teams have some of the best hitters in the league and either side has a plus pitching matchup. If sportsbooks offered KBO home run props, I'd place a bet on a Fernandez or Rojas home run. Regardless, this should be one of the higher scoring games on the slate.
Pick: Over 9.5
LG Twins at NC Dinos (-122)
O/U: 9.5 | ESPN2 at 4am EST
LG had a nice upset win over Doosan on Opening Day but have caught themselves enjoying it a bit too much, having dropped their next three by a combined 17 runs. While they scored five runs on Friday, their bats are pretty stale at the moment. Roberto Ramos is likely still getting adjusted to the slower pitching of the KBO from Triple-A, although he is hitting .438 but has just one RBI. Hyun-soo Kim and Min-sung Kim have been the primary run producers so far, but the Twins will need more to compete with NC. We'll see Chan-kyu Im on the hill for LG. He hasn't exactly been the model KBO pitcher the last three year, as he's averaged a 5.13 ERA, a .328 BABIP, and a 9 BB%. One positive is he does have some strikeout upside with a 19 K% over the same three-year span.
The Dinos are proving to be a very formidable opponent this 2020 KBO season. Through just four games they have 10 hitters with at least two RBI and seven guys with at least one home run; talk about production. Jin-hyuk No has been the leader in the clubhouse with two homers and five RBI, while Aaron Altherr and Eui-ji Yang sem to be waiting in the wings before taking off. 20-year-old southpaw Young-kyu Kim gets the ball for the first time this year and as a rookie in 2019, he was serviceable for NC. He went 5-4 with a 5.29 ERA in 66/1 innings, and while his 15 K% and 10 BB% are far-less than stellar, he did a good job stranding runners to a 72% clip.
The NC Dinos are still my favorite to win this league, and I think a lot of people are catching on as well. I'm banking on Kim having the lefty advantage over the five left-handed hitters in LG's starting lineup. We went this route with Chae-hyung Choi of Samsung on Friday, and while Kim might not be as solid, the Dinos offense should help carry this one to victory.
Pick: NC Dinos ML -122
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