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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/30/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Nothing like some Friday morning gambling sweat. Every single piece of action came down to the wire, with Doosan winning by two and Samsung graciously walking off on NC and not letting the game go to extra plus cashing the under. However, the Kiwoom Heroes really let me down, not being able to push across a sixth run despite having many opportunities to do so. Thus is life, thus is sports betting.
- Thursday, May 28: 2-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 38-14
I'm sure some of you wonder why I don't include recommended units with my picks. Just assume that every pick is one unit. This is a weird term for most novice gamblers, but I'm sure if you're betting the KBO, you're not really a novice. Either way, I want you to decide how comfortable you are, based on my analysis, and make your decision from that. Like many say, don't bet something you're not comfortable losing.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Saturday, May 30th at 4:00 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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KT Wiz at Kiwoom Heroes (-136)
O/U: 10 | ESPN at 4:00 am EST
Probable Pitchers
KT: William Cuevas (1-1, 5.55 ERA)
Kiwoom: Won-tae Choi (0-2, 3.86 ERA)
The Wiz are starting to rely heavily on their pitching, due to the injuries in their lineup. Min Kim gave them a chance on Friday, now they need Cuevas to do the same on Saturday. The 29-year-old hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, allowing 15 earned runs in four starts. However, his 21/6 K/BB and just six extra-base hits allowed offers some insight that he's been unlucky.
KT's lineup hasn't been bad, they have just taken a big step back from where they were, and it's no coincidence that Baek-ho Kang's absence is a part of that. They nearly got shutout at the hands of Eric Jokisch and get another tough tilt on Saturday. Mel Rojas Jr. and Jae-Gyun Hwang can only do so much to carry a lineup of nine.
The Heroes will look to 23-year-old Won-tae choi to pick up a series win Saturday. This is a budding star if he hasn't already reached that status. Through 21 innings, he's allowed nine runs but has yet to allow a home run and carries a 15/6 K/BB. Last season was the best of his short career, going 11-5 with a 3.38 ERA while allowing just five long balls in 157.1 innings.
Kiwoom broke my heart a little bit Friday. They left a RISP in the 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th inning. While they won, those are opportunities that can't be left on the table. However, this is still an offense that has scored 35 runs in their last seven. Jung-hoo Lee has been on a tear, while Byung-ho Park is always a threat and Don-won Park is arguably the best hitting catcher in the league right now. Like I said in Friday's article, they're just waiting to breakout.
We're going after the better pitcher here. Choi is a young ace in the making and with Jake Brigham now out for the foreseeable future, Choi will need to step it up even more. He'll get his first win here with some help from a solid Heroes lineup.
Pick: Kiwoom ML -136
NC Dinos (-235) at Samsung Lions
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
NC: Mike Wright (3-0, 2.86 ERA)
Samsung: David Buchanan (2-2, 5.40 ERA)
The Dinos blew their would-be six game win streak thanks to a walkoff by Samsung Friday. The lineup didn't exactly struggle but they certainly left some to be desired after failing to record a hit after the sixth inning when they scored their fourth and final run. Guys like Aaron Altherr who is on a five-game hit streak along with the recently returned Eui-ji Yang and Sung-bum Na have been the spark that light the fire for the Dinos. The .293 team average and 133 runs scored are provided in part by the KBO-best 32 homers.
Mike Wright has seen some success early in his KBO career, with his worst start being his most recent one where he went six inning, allowing four runs on just two hits against Hanwha. Samsung's offense is a bit stronger than Hanwha but considering the former Oriole also threw five scoreless against the Doosan Bears on May 19, the Lions offense should be just another start.
Has Samsung started to find their groove? As winners of four of their last five, the Lions have caught a few teams by surprise. They outscored Lotte 14-3 over their last series and then their ninth inning win on Friday is quite a momentum builder. The .244 average and .698 OPS are interesting when you consider they have 60 extra-base hits and 108 runs scored. Tyler Saladino seems to finally be catching onto KBO pitching with hits in four of his last five, and Don-yup Kim pinch-hit on Friday so he should be able to return to the lineup Saturday.
David Buchanan has had a roller coaster first four starts in the KBO. The 31-year-old got pinged for five runs in his KBO debut before shutting out Kiwoom over seven frames. He then proceeded to give up 10 runs (!!) against the LG Twins, before following that up with another seven inning shutout start against Doosan. He's served up four long balls, but three came in one start. He's a coin flip until we see more consistency out of him.
NC was stunned by the late-inning walkoff on Friday. Wright wins the pitching matchup here and NC's lineup is far-and-away better. Also, in each of their three previous losses, the Dinos won the next day, and in two of those they won by two or more. Samsung has proven tougher over the last week, but the Dinos are not going to let a team at the bottom of the standings win a series against them.
Pick: NC -1.5
LG Twins (-162) at Kia Tigers
O/U: 10 | ** 1:00 am EST**
Probable Pitchers
LG: Chan-kyu Im (2-0, 4.50 ERA)
Kia: Min-woo Lee (2-0, 3.80 ERA)
LG is still riding high over the last week-plus. Winners of five straight and seven of their last eight, the Twins are clicking on all cylinders. They've outscored their opponents 46-26 since May 21. They have the second highest OPS (.823), average w/RISP (.324), and second-most extra base hits (70). Roberto Ramos continues to be a one man wrecking crew, homering in four of his last five, giving him 10 in just 21 games while also driving in 21. Eun-seong Chae has carried his weight with four homers and 20 RBI, while Hyun-soo Kim has plated 15 runners.
Chan-kyu Im is having a solid start to 2020, but I don't see it lasting long. After holding the SK Wyverns to just one in his first start, he's given up eight runs in starts against Samsung and KT, both considerably better offenses than SK. According to Fangraphs, his FIP is at 2.28 whereas over the last seven years of his career, the lowest it had been was 4.41. He's walked just two batters in 18 innings after holding an 11.7 BB% in 2019. Something has to give eventually.
The Kia Tigers find themselves in a bit of rut after winning straight the week of May 18. They dropped Friday's game 6-2 after not being able to string together any long innings. For the nice streak that they went on, they don't do anything particularly impressive at the plate. Preston Tucker is a moose with six home runs and 24 RBI while 35-year-old Ji-wan Na continues to be overlooked with his four homers and 16 RBI. Keep in mind they are missing Sun-bin Kim (elbow) but he's listed as day-to-day so he very well could return over the weekend.
Min-woo Lee is taking a shot at the rotation full-time and so far-so good. He's given up 10 runs over 23.2 innings, against the like of Kiwoom, Lotte, SK, and Hanwha; not the toughest of opponents. He made just six start a year ago, one of them against LG where he gave up six runs in four innings, though it was on the road. With most of his career innings coming out of the pen, it's tough to gauge how he truly embraces starting, but so far he limits extra-base hits but does struggle with control (9 BB%).
These pitchers just aren't very good. They've managed to make their way through lesser lineups but will get a nice challenge Saturday. The lefty-heavy LG Twins lineup will cause some serious issues for Lee, while Kia will need to be patient and work Im deep into counts, for which they'll likely be rewarded.
Pick: Over 9.5
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