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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/29/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
There was never a doubt for Thursday's slate. Casey Kelly was getting overlooked by Warwick Saupold but the numbers just didn't add up. Kelly was the guy to target and he showed that by spinning a gem against Hanwha. Then Kia and KT had an early offensive bout that saw the over cash in the fifth inning. It doesn't get much better than that.
- Thursday, May 28: 2-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 36-13
Most days I will try to find three games where there is some value to target, but Thursday was the perfect case that there is no need to chase. Find what you are comfortable in and roll with it. Also, please keep this in mind. I write these five paragraph writeups so you read them and can make your own informed decision as to whether you like the pick or not. I understand I've had success so far, but you should feel confident in these picks before submitting a bet!
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Friday, May 29th at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Lotte Giants at Doosan Bears (-190)
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Kyeun-Eun Noh (1-0, 6.00 ERA)
Doosan: Raul Alcantara (3-1, 4.13 ERA)
The Lotte Giants might still be 10-10, but they're 3-7 L10 and just lost a series to the eighth place Samsung Lions. Their struggles are real. as they've scored just 18 runs in their last six games (all at home too) with nine of those coming in one game. Dixon Machado has been hitting in the nine hole since May 23 and is hitting just .206 despite the four homers and 15 RBI. Guys like Dae-Ho Lee and Ah-seop Son might be generating hits, but they're not generating runs right now.
The 36-year-old Kyeun-Eun Noh gets to face his former team and will have his hands full. through his first 15 innings, he's allowed 10 runs and eight extra-base hits. His 10/4 K/BB isn't bad but the 1.54 WHIP hints that he is prone to getting hit around with a side of control issues.
Doosan was dealt a 6-1 upset by the lowly SK Wyverns on Thursday. Surely the Bears lineup will be looking to answer that to open the weekend. They've scored just 3.8 runs per game over their last six home games, en route to a 3-3 record. Runs might not be as plentiful in Bears home games, but the talent in this lineup is real. Jose Fernandez and Jae-hwan Kim have been leading the pack with four homers a piece and 21 and 19 RBI, respectively. They also should welcome back Jae-il Oh to the starting lineup after pinch-hitting Thursday. He was hitting .384 with three homers and 14 RBI before being sidelined.
Raul Alcantara gets to make his first home start as a member of the Bears. The former Wiz hurler has won each of his last three starts and has yet to give up more than four runs in an outing. The righty has already faced the Giants once on May 12 and gave up four in five innings on 12 hits. He's got a high K% and low BB% and while Alcantara has also served up four homers already, he'll get a big boost being at home in the large Jamsil Baseball Stadium.
Not only does Doosan already have six lefties consistently in their lineup, they now get back Oh who adds another dimension of danger for opposing righties. The Bears are probably none-to-pleased they weren't able to sweep SK before returning home and I see them taking it out on Noh at home. Also, Alcantara is the far better pitcher here and should be able to take advantage of a down Lotte starting nine.
Pick: Doosan -1.5
KT Wiz at Kiwoom Heroes
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
KT Wiz: Min Kim (2-0, 6.32 ERA)
Kiwoom: Eric Jokisch (3-0, 1.17 ERA)
Min Kim gets the nod for the Wiz following a big home series win over the Kia Tigers. Unfortunately for Kim, they're back on the road which is where he struggled mightily in 2019. The 21-year-old gave up 61 of his 83 earned runs and 14 of his 16 home runs allowed on the road in 2019. His 2-0 record this year has some luck tied to it. Through 15.2 innings, he's allowed 11 runs with a 9/11 K/BB. I'll let you be the judge if that's sustainable, given his history.
The Wiz offense has been solid in their last six, scoring 30 runs in their last six games. However, it's only a matter of time before they feel the effects of missing two starters, Baek-ho Kang and Han-joo Yoo. Luckily for them, Jae-Gyun Hwang is back and producing, while Mel Rojas Jr. has continued his tear through the early part of the season.
American Eric Jokisch has dominated in his time with the Heroes. After a 13-19 campaign in 2019, he's started out 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP across 23 innings. He has yet to allow more than six hits in an outing and also hasn't let up a home run. A 20 K% is pretty and a sub 5 BB% is what coaches dream of. He's shutout LG already this season, but facing the dangerous Wiz lineup will be a different challenge, even when missing a few starters.
If you want to talk about streaky, look no further than the Kiwoom Heroes. They won four in a row earlier this season, but have also endured multiple losing streaks, including the current four-game skid they're on following a sweep by the NC Dinos. they're definitely anxious to get home where they've scored 47 of their 109 runs and earned six of their 10 wins. This is still an offense looking to breakout. Their .263 average and .755 OPS are middle-of-the-pack, but a .305 average w/RISP is nice to see. They also have five hitters with three or more long balls. Like I said, they're ready to breakout.
Kiwoom averages about 5.2 runs per game at home but they have a juicy matchup here. Kim has had a rough start to his career, and while he's still young, Kiwoom's lineup has experience and history to back them up. Jokisch is a great arm with good recent form, but I'm staying away from a side here.
Pick: Kiwoom Team Total Over 5.5
NC Dinos (-250) at Samsung Lions
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
NC: Drew Rucinski (3-0, 2.49 ERA)
Samsung: Dae-woo Kim (0-1, 4.09 ERA)
It's one win streak after another for the NC Dinos. A sweep of Kiwoom extended their win streak to five and ups their KBO-best 17-3 record. The Dinos have dropped 42 runs over their last six and just when many thought they couldn't be any better, they're slowly climbing to the top of several offensive categories, including their 31 home runs. Back on the road now, they average just under six runs per game as visitors. They have eight guys with nine or more RBI and Jin-sung Kang and Sung-bum Na are at the forefront with 18 and 17, respectively.
American Drew Rucinski will make his fifth start and he's already made work of the Lions once this year. On Opening Day (May 5), the former Marlin went six scoreless innings, allowing just three hits while striking out six and walking four. In 2019, he made two road starts at Samsung. Over 15 innings, he allowed just three runs on nine hits with 13 strikeouts and one walk. He's one of the top arms in the KBO and this is a great matchup for the 31-year-old.
All things considered, Samsung has been playing their best baseball of late. Winners of three of their last four, the Lions have also scored 40 runs in their last six, which is just under 40% of their season run total. Consider their missing Ja-wook Koo and Sung-gyu Lee's 10 extra base hits and 13 RBI and their recent string is impressive, considering the 8-13 record. DH Dong-yub Kim OF Hun-gon Kim have been solid run contributors in their absence, but otherwise, this lineup is barren.
Dae-woo Kim will make his second start of 2020 after being moved from the bullpen.In his first start against Doosan, he was "okay," throwing four innings of two-run ball (both solo home runs) against arguably the best offense in the league. Including his relief appearances, he has a 7/7 K/BB in 11 innings, but at 31 years old, a career 6.00 ERA and 1.65 WHIP shouldn't exactly instill confidence in fans and bettors alike.
The Dinos are the biggest favorite on the slate and they likely will be all weekend. While they should have no issues getting the win here, it's Rucinski that will play the biggest role. If he can silence the Lions through six or seven innings, the NC bullpen can take care of the rest. Samsung's relief situation isn't too shabby either and both teams actually have a top four bullpen. If you see the risk here, consider that NC has had six unders hit in nine road games, while Samsung has seen five unders hit in 12 home games.
Pick: Under 10
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