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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/23/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
The LG Twins, or comeback kids as I'm calling them, gave us a sweet, sweet capped off a 3-0 sweep on Friday. What a wonderful way to open up Memorial Day weekend. Lotte, like clockwork took the lead in the sixth inning, and while the total had already went over, it's always reassuring to not just win, but demolish a bet. NC and Hanwha gave our under a bit of a scare through six innings, but the bullpens came in to slam the door shut on either side.
- Friday, May 22 Picks: 3-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 25-10
While we keep chugging along here through this fantastic run to open the season, I would like to say to step up on a soapbox for a second. For those of us in America, this is an important weekend. Please always remember our veterans, but especially those who have given the ultimate sacrifice. On this Memorial Day weekend, despite it being different than every year before it, it's more than just a day off work (if you're lucky enough) and barbecues. We're the lucky ones who get to live normal lives because they answered the call of duty.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Saturday, May 23rd at 4:00 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Doosan Bears (-194) at Samsung Lions
O/U: 11 | ESPN2 at 4:00 am EST
Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Raul Alcantara (2-1, 4.00 ERA)
Samsung: Dae-woo Kim (0-0, 3.86 ERA)
The Doosan Bears could be a frustrating team to be a diehard fan of. One minute they're up six but then you blink and the bullpen just gave up seven late in the game. That means they'll need starter Raul Alcantara to be at his best on Saturday. His recent form suggests that's what they'll get. He's allowed eight earned runs in 18 innings but hasn't given up more than four in an outing and carries a 16/2 K/BB. He is prone to getting hit around but has done a great job at stranding runners at a 78% clip.
What isn't there to say about the offense? They're hitting .322 as a unit, with 53 extra-base hits to go with 106 runs scored. Joe Fernandez continued his tear Friday, going 3-for-4 with a home run and six RBI and he's arguably the best player in the league right now. Jae-il Oh is on the injured the list, but they did get back outfielder Jae-hwan Kim on Friday. Kim leads the team with four homers to go with his 15 RBI.
If it weren't for the SK Wyverns, Samsung would be the weakest team in the league. They've had a handful of close games, but they're not able to get into shootouts to win games. They'll need everything they can get from Dae-woo Kim who will shift from the bullpen to start, though he has made 14 starts since 2017. In five relief appearances this year, he's allowed three earned runs in seven innings to go with a dismal 3/6 K/BB.
Offensively, the Lions will struggle to keep up with the Doosan bats. While they did plate seven on Friday, they have scored six or more runs just four other times this season. They're batting .232 with a .647 OPS which will not get the job done. Ja-wook Koo has a 1.051 OPS but has driven in only six; they'll need more production from their heart of the lineup.
These teams are just on two different levels of offense. Doosan has a pretty large starting pitching advantage too with Alcantara, but it's the Bears' bullpen that can be worrisome. However, I'm going to trust the fact that Samsung struggles mightily at the plate regardless of who is on the mound.
Pick: Doosan -1.5
Kia Tigers (-144) at SK Wyverns
O/U: 8
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Aaron Brooks (0-1, 3.00 ERA)
SK: Tae-hoon Kim (0-0, 1.38 ERA)
Kia is on a nice run recently, winning five of their last six and by a 40-14 run differential, and that includes games against Doosan and the recent sweep of Lotte. Now they get the worst team in the league. American Aaron Brooks is likely licking his chops as he looks for his first KBO win. The former Athletic has impressed through three starts, allowing six earned runs through 18 innings, while striking out 18 and walking none. An interesting progression is that after surrendering just five hits in his debut, opponents have tallied 18 knocks in the last two starts,
As stated, the offense has been great over the last week of games. Preston Tucker continues to carry things with five homers and a league-leading 20 RBI, but four other hitters have at least a pair of home runs, so there is fire power in this offense.
I haven't written about the Wyverns too many times, and for good reason. Their pitching staff has struggled mightily with a 5.67 ERA, 1.62 WHIp, and a .287 opponent batting average. Lefty Tae-hoon Kim will take the ball Saturday, and he's been one of their bright lights so far. Through two starts, he's 0-1 but has allowed just two earned runs with a 9/6 K/BB. A reliever most of his career, he's been able to work through at least six in both starts so it will be interesting to see how he holds up as the season progresses.
The Wyverns lineup has shown it's ability to score runs here and there, but you don't get to 2-13 without having a pretty bad lineup. They've scored a league-lowest 54 runs, thanks in part to a .234 team average and .647 OPS. They do have Dong-min Han whose slugged six homers and driven in 12, but around him, guys like Jamie Romak haven't carried their weight.
This total is low because of Brooks and the Wyverns offense being terrible. Realistically, Kia could drop eight runs themselves on Kim, but even if the 30-year-old lefty stymies the Tigers, the Wyverns bullpen has their fair share of problems too, boasting a 6.63 ERA.
Pick: Over 8
KT Wiz at LG Twins (-175)
O/U: 10.5 | 1:00 am EST
Probable Pitchers
KT Wiz: Min Kim (1-0, 9.00 ERA)
LG: Woo-chan Cha (2-1, 5.62 ERA)
The KT Wiz have jumped onto the scene thanks to a recent five-game win streak. However, they've dropped their last two, including Friday where they held a 5-2 lead after the seventh inning before LG walked off. They have the best offense in the league with a .326 average, a league-leading 60 extra-base hits, and 106 runs scored. Mel Rojas Jr. is tearing the cover off the ball with a .452 average, while Kyung-su Park and Baek-ho Kang are the main run producers, with 13 and 14 RBI, respectively.
Min Kim will make his third start Saturday, taking with him a 1-0 record with a 9.00 ERA. The 21-year-old has been topsy-turvy so far, allowing seven runs in his 2020 debut before holding Samsung to just three his last time out.
LG is on fire, losing just twice in their last last 11 and they're just two games back from the NC Dinos. The lineup has certainly done their part, dropping 66 runs in that 11-game stretch. Roberto Ramos and Eun-seong Chae have done the heavy lifting with nine homers and 28 RBI combined.
Southpaw Woo-chan Chae toes the bump for the fourth time and is looking for a bounceback from his last start. He allowed two runs through his first to starts before letting up five total on May 17. His 19/6 K/BB is nothing to scoff at, so he should be able to give KT their money's worth.
KT has the best first five inning record in the KBO thus far. I'm going to target KT here because they take care of business early then the bullpen lets things get a little rocky.
Pick: KT Wiz 1st 5 Innings ML +135
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