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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/21/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
These last two days have a been a bit more controversial than how I ended last week. While the two unders cashed easily, the NC/Doosan game went down to the wire. Following the Dinos tying the game at 1-1 in the 4th inning, Doosan didn't record a hit between innings 5-10. Then the host Bears kept us from another sweep by walking off and ending NC's seven game win streak.
- Wednesday May 20 Picks: 2-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 21-8
Tuesday almost every game went over. Wednesday every game went under. Just another reason to love baseball, because more often than not, you never know what to expect. Luckily I've been able to keep pretty good tabs on the early trends of the KBO.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Thursday, May 21st at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Hanwha Eagles at KT Wiz (-167)
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Hanwha: Ee-whan Kim (1-0, 1.64 ERA)
KT: Hyeong -jun So (2-0, 3.18 ERA)
The Hanwha Eagles probably feel like they're so close to getting a few good breaks. Five of their nine losses have come by less than two runs and if it weren't for the pitching staff, these numbers could be much worse. While their 1.43 WHIP could use some work, the 4.43 staff ERA is third best in the league. Ee-whan Kim makes his third start of the 2020 season and the 19-year-old is looking to carry a hot start.
The 19-year-old has allowed just two runs over 11 innings but his 5/5 K/BB shows there's not much upside for the youngster. He won't have much offense behind him, as the team is hitting just .258 with only six home runs and 50 runs scored. Only two hitters have more than five RBI but keep in mind Jared Hoying (back) has been out for a week. This team han't proven a thing so far and being the most injured team in the league doesn't help matters.
The Wiz are truly rolling right now, winning each of their last five games, all of which have come at home. They've averaged 10.8 runs per game in that span and won by an average of six runs; they clearly weren't happy after getting swept by NC two series ago. In that stretch, they've also established themselves as the premier offense in the league.
Their 54 extra-base hits, 97 runs scored, and .907 OPS are all better than their opponents. KT is home to 10 hitters who have at least a .300 average or better and have driven in at least six runs or more. Hyeong-jun So is somehow younger than his mound opponent but has performed admirably in two starts this year. He's allowed just two earned runs in 11.1 innings, en route to a 2-0 record. At such a young age, it's hard to know what to expect, but being at home will give him an extra comfort level.
Hanwha has definitely had some tough luck this season but in seven of their nine losses, they have fallen by two or more runs. They do have two away wins, but both of them were in a season-opening series against SK (the worst team in the KBO). KT's offense has been on a tear over their winning streak and there's no reason it shouldn't continue here.
Pick: KT Wiz -1.5
NC Dinos (-127) at Doosan Bears
O/U: 9.5 | ESPN2 at 5:30 am EST
Probable Pitchers
NC: Jae-hak Lee (1-0, 3.97 ERA)
Doosan: Hui-kwan Yu (1-1, 5.00 ERA)
The NC offense was a bit sluggish on Wednesday. While they out-hit Doosan 5-3, one run against one of the worst pitching staffs in the league is just not going to cut it. However over their previously mentioned win streak, they plated 37 runs while allowing just 24. Unfortunately, this Dino offense has a few issue right now.
Third baseman Sok-min Park left Wednesday's game with a back injury and is considered day-to-day, meanwhile American Aaron Altherr is hitting .182 with just four RBI, though he has hit two homers. On the hill is Jae-hak Lee who cruised through six innings against the SK Wyverns his last time out. He's shown strikeout upside in the past (23.5 K% in '16), but in each of the last four seasons, he's had a 1.38 WHIP or higher and at least a .306 BABIP.
Doosan snuck their way into a win on Wednesday but those are the games that championship teams win. However, they also lost a big part of their offense when Jae-il Oh went down with a side injury and is now listed as day-to-day. While he's a premier run producer for them, they have Jose Fernandez and Jae-hawn Kim among others who have had no issues in the early going.
Lefty Hui-kwan Yu is an interesting arm for the Bears. In his 10th season, he's gone 88-52 with a 4.38 ERA. However, his strikeout numbers have dwindled significantly over the last three years. After averaging 111 punchouts from 2014-17, he went down to 81 in '18 all the ay to just 64 in 2019, all while appearing in at least 28 games over those years.
Both teams might be missing some key contributors on offense, but down one player aside shouldn't be enough to dismantle either of these potent lineups. Yesterday will prove an outlier and we'll see quite a few more runs in this one.
Pick: Over 9.5
LG Twins (-130) at Samsung Lions
O/U: 11
Probable Pitchers
LG: Min-ho Lee (First career start)
Samsung: Won-tae In (1-0, 5.73 ERA)
Before this series, the LG Twins were fresh off winning six of their last seven. While they've split the first two games with the Lions, they're still tied for second place at 8-5. So why not throw out an 18-year-old for his first career start. Min-ho Lee has surrendered just one unearned run and three hits through four innings of relief work, so LG decided to slot him into a starting spot.
Offensively, the Twins have had a few big games, but in five of their last six, they've scored five or fewer runs. They, of course, have Roberto Ramos whose homered in back-to-back games and has 11 RBI while Eun-seong Chae and Yong-taik PArk also have 12 and 10 RBI, respectively. However, much of that offense stems from a 10-run outburst on Tuesday and LG might not be as consistent as their record suggests.
Samsung earned a pitcher's duel win over LG on Wednesday to break a four-game skid. While they got run over on the road by the KT Wiz the series before, the Lions are looking to gain some ground in game three of a six-game homestand. Opposing Lee is Won-tae In. While young himself, at 20 years old, In has 22 starts of experience on his opponent.
He's 1-0 this year with a 5.73 ERA, while his peripherals weren't much better last year, he was generally been much better at home. Samsung's offense has certainly been better, as their .233 average, .653 OPS, 10 homer runs, and 63 runs scored are some of the lowest in the league. Dong-yub Kim has been solid, driving in 12 runs but the Lions are looking for the right spot to break out.
Sitting higher in the standings, LG doesn't feel much pressure throwing an 18-year-old out of the hill to start against a lower tier team like Samsung. Unfortunately, the 18-year-old will likely be feeling some pressure. I don't doubt LG is a better team, but sports betting is about value and there is some value in targeting the Lions at home.
Pick: Samsung +110
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