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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/16/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
We had another nice day with a big ZERO in the loss column, however, we also had Kiwoom get rained out so it wasn't a full card sweep. Doosan is a wagon but as you keep reading you'll see I don't think they're indestructible. The KT Wiz will also be an interesting team to follow through the coming weeks as their offense is stout but the pitching staff has been abysmal.
- Friday, May 15 Picks: 2-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 14-6
Please also note that Kiwoom will be playing a doubleheader on Saturday. While we won't be targeting them, another game we are targeting will be played at 1am EST as well. I can't say I've ever had a night cap of 1am baseball but I'm here for it.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Saturday, May 16th. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Lotte Giants at Hanwha Eagles (-157)
O/U: 9.5 | 1am EST
Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Jyung-eun Noh (0-0, 9.00 ERA)
Hanwha: Warwick Saupold (1-0, 1.20 ERA)
Lotte didn't get Dan Straily's best stuff on Friday and fell to Hanwha 2-1. Next up is 36-year-old Kyung-eun Noh will try to stymie the Eagles. Noh will make his second start of the young season after posting a solid 2019 where he went 9-6 with a 4.08 ERA. While he struggled to keep the ball in the park (gave up a career-high 18 home runs), he did a good job challenging hitters, posting a 16 K% and a career-low 5.5 BB%. The bats went a little cold in the last two but they're still batting .300 with an .836 OPS. They have four guys who have at least five extra-base hits, including Dixon Machado who has also driven in 13 so far.
Hanwha, for lack of a better term, is the most boring team in the KBO. They sit at 4-6 with a five-game skid mixed in there. However, that doesn't mean they aren't worth paying attention to. Warwick Saupold is a big "foreigner" name in the league and for good reason. He went 12-11 with a 3.51 ERA in 2019, and followed it up by opening 2020 with a complete game, shutout of SK. His previous start against Kiwoom was solid as well, throwing six innings, while allowing two earned runs on five hits, while fanning five and walking one. The offense is where the boredom of the Eagles kicks in. The .265 team average isn't bad but consider the .676 OPS, four home runs, and 32 runs and it's moderately impressive they have four wins already.
Saupold is the name people will cling to here, and for good reason. However, Noh shouldn't be overlooked against a Hanwha lineup that has only scored four runs or more twice in 10 games.
Pick: Under 9.5
Doosan Bears (-134) at Kia Tigers
O/U: 9.5 | ESPN2 at 4am EST
Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Yong-chan Lee (0-0, 9.00 ERA)
Kia: Hyun-jong Yang (1-1, 6.00 ERA)
Kia gets a third turn with their ace, Hyun-jong Yang whose had mixed results in starts against Kiwoom and Samsung. The lefty is in his 14th season and fresh off one of the best seasons of his career where he went 16-8 with a 2.29 ERA. He seems to have struggled with control so far, striking out four and walking three in nine innings of work, but Yang carried over a 22 K% with just a 4.5 BB% in 2019, so it should only be a matter of time before we see him turn it on. After a rough start at the plate, the offense has gotten better, though they've still plated just four runs in each of their last three games. Preston Tucker continues to rake, while Sun-bin Kim and veteran Hyoung-woo Choi look to get the wheels rolling.
It's hard to bet against Doosan given their offensive prowess. However, with five lefties in their lineup, Yang is in a good spot to slow them up at home.
Pick: Kia +118
Samsung Lions at KT Wiz (-132)
O/U: 11.5
Probable Pitchers
Samsung: Sung-hwan Yoon (First Start of 2020)
KT: Min Kim (0-0, 15.75 ERA)
Samsung was finally gaining some momentum after a series win over Kiwoom, just to get throttled 14-6 by KT on Friday. Top to bottom, the lineup has been performing well over the last few games, but outside of Dong-yub Kim and his eight RBI, they still need someone else to step up and be a leader. On the bump will be 38-year-old Sung-hwan Yoon. He has started at least 24 games since 2014 and has had a fair amount of success mixed in there. However, to end 2019, Yoon went 1-7 over his last nine starts, with five coming on the road. It's only fair to assume he's slowing down.
The Wiz finally exploded for 14 runs on Friday, thanks to an eight-run seventh inning. This is what this offense is capable of. Mel Rojas Jr. went off with a double and home run, while Han-joon Yoo and Baek-ho Kang added five more RBI combined. They're tied with the second most runs scored (57) and they have the second most extra-base hits in the league with 35. So their 2-7 record is clearly a pitching issue. Min Kim gets the nod at home, and it should be a welcome return. He got tattered for seven runs against Doosan on May 10, but at just 20 years old, he's likely still finding his rhythm. An interesting note for Kim is that in his 10 home starts in 2019, he allowed just 21 earned runs, which means the 62 other earned runs came on the road. This is a nice little edge.
We're rolling with the Wiz. The offense has been clicking through the early going, they've just needed an inspiring pitching performance, and they should get that from Kim on Saturday.
Pick: KT Wiz ML -132
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