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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/14/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Wednesday was not great and a nice little reality check. However, I don't look back at any of the bets with regret or see flaw in my analysis. An eight-run second inning for LG destroyed any hopes for SK. Samsung's David Buchanan threw arguably the best game of his entire professional career against a potent Kiwoom offense. Hanwha fell 4-3 but ended the game with the bases loaded missing the over by two. Just a bad day, everyone is prone to them.
- Wednesday, May 13 Picks: 0-3
- 2020 KBO Season: 9-6
This league is certainly built for excitement and I'm glad that I'm not an absolute diehard fan of any of these teams, because so far we've seen no lead is safe past the sixth inning. You could say the same for just about any baseball game, but from what we've witnessed through just a week of games, the KBO is truly an experience that any sports fan should give a chance.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Thursday, May 14th at 5:30am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Doosan Bears (-165) at Lotte Giants
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Christopher Flexen (1-0, 4.50 ERA)
Lotte: See-woong Park (0-0, 5.79 ERA)
After holding down one of the best pitching staffs in the league last year (thanks to Josh Lindblom), Doosan has struggled mightily thus far, allowing at least six runs in five of their seven games. Right-hander Chris Flexen draws a tough card in his second KBO start, after earning a win on May 7 against LG. The former-Met is trying to prove he has what it takes after posting an 8.07 ERA through 68 major league innings. He's got a solid fastball-slider mix, but the slider was very bad against major league hitting. Luckily for him, he'll have arguably the best offense in the league behind him. A combined average of .330 with an .880 OPS is hard to argue against. Jae-hwan Kim, Jose Fernandez, and Jae-il Oh have driven in 25 runs themselves.
Lotte has become a team many new KBO fans have flocked to because people love a good underdog story. While their pitching staff has just been "okay," they're sitting tied for first at 6-1 and their offense is scoring over seven runs per game. They're tied for the KBO lead with 52 runs scored while clubbing 27 extra base hits. Six of their regular starters have over a .300 average while Dixon Machado and Jun-woo Jeon have each left the park three times. They'll try to back up Se-woong Park on the mound. Park allowed three runs on six hits over 4.2 innings on May 7 which is about where he's been over his career. However, he does do a solid job keeping the ball in the park, giving up just three homers in 60 innings in 2019.
Plain and simple these are the two top offenses in the league right now and either side could score 10 runs on their own. Flexen might still be young with a lot to prove, but once he's out of the game, the bullpen is set to implode almost daily. Thanks to @theMNdegen on Twitter, we see that once Doosan goes to the pen anything is up for grabs.
Pick: Over 10.5
Kia Tigers (-120) at Hanwha Eagles
O/U: 9
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Drew Gagnon (0-1, 5.06 ERA)
Hanwha: Min-je Jang (0-0, 5.40 ERA)
Kia pulled a win out on Wednesday by the skin of their teeth, despite a solid start by Min-woo Lee. Next up is American Drew Gagnon who gave up three over 5.1 innings in his KBO debut May 8. The former Met has a 92 mph fastball mixed with a circle change that clearly kept hitters off balance once he settled into his first game in Korea. However, it's difficult to ignore his struggles with the Mets last year, posting an 8.96 FIP with 11 homers allowed in just 23.2 innings. The Tigers are slightly better than Hanwha offensively, but not by much. If Preston Tucker wasn't a thing, Kia would be out 15 extra-base hits and 11 RBI.
Min-je Jang draws his second start of 2020 after a five inning no-decision on May 8. This will mark his first home start since early August 2019, but that's where he performs his best. In nine home starts, he went 4-2 and surrendered just 26 earned runs (2.8 per game), which is just less than half of what he allowed on the road (46 total). Also important to note that his best home start of 2019 was eight-innings of shutout ball with nine strikeouts and one walk against these Kia Tigers. On offense, the Eagles have been one of the least productive all season, evidenced by the 3.2 runs per game and .674 OPS. But there's more here, and we can't forget they ended Wednesday with the bases loaded.
It's tough to go against Gagnon and his solid changeup that will surely stifle hitters all season, but Hanwha is in a good spot at home with a Jang performing his best inside Daejeon Hanbat Baseball Stadium.
Pick: Hanwha + 102
SK Wyverns (-122) at LG Twins
O/U: 10 | ESPN2 at 5:30am EST
Probable Pitchers
SK: Jong-hun Park (0-0, 3.60 ERA)
LG: Tyler Wilson (0-1, 14.54 ERA)
The Wyverns haven't had much go right through the first two game of this series, losing both by a combined 23-7. Jong-hoon Park will try to right-the-ship on Thursday. He scattered eight hits while allowing two runs in five innings at home against Hanwha, May 7. When on the road in 2019, Park averaged 5.2 innings while allowing just over three runs per start. On the year, a 3.88 ERA with a 4.56 FIP hints that he got a little lucky, but he did a good job holding runners on-base at a 74% rate. I expected the Wyverns offense to break out on Wednesday, but it won't get easier against Tyler Wilson. Just 24 runs scored and a .704 OPS, they'' need more from literally anyone not named Dong-min Han who has four homers and 10 RBI. However, the team does lead the league with eight stolen bases.
Wilson's first start of 2020 was a disaster, allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings, walking four and striking out just two, but it's hard to expect much after he just returned to Korea post-quarantine. This is the same guy who went 14-7 with a 2.92 ERA to go with an 18 K% and 5.8 BB%, so until he shows something different, we'll expect him to be one of the top arms in the KBO. The lineup has six hitters with six or more RBI, including import Roberto Ramos who is raking with three homers and doubles apiece. A lefty-heavy lineup will benefit them at home.
While LG has a great offense, this has sneaky makings of a pitchers duel. Wilson will be ready to show his first start was nothing more than a fluke. Meanwhile, Park has been better than he might get credit for so I'm looking for a lower-scoring game.
Pick: Under 10
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