KBO Betting Picks (5/12/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

May 11, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/12/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.

Following the Monday off day, we're a full week down of KBO. It's been an exciting time being able to place bets on real baseball again, even if we're unable to watch parts of the game live. While there is still an acclimation period of knowing players, we can at least get a sense of which teams have talent, and which ones might find themselves at the back of the pack for the remainder of the season.

• Sunday, May 10 Picks: 2-1
• 2020 KBO Season: 7-2

One thing I've noticed so far is that the back end of most teams' rotations are very weak and that means we can exploit several pitching matchups. Again, it's still way too early to put any basis on how certain teams and players are performing but it's certainly something to watch out for.

Today, I'll be bringing you my advice, analysis, and best bets for the Tuesday, May 12th slate of KBO games that start at 5:30am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.

Kia Tigers at Hanwha Eagles (-157)

O/U: 8.5

Probable Pitchers
Kia: Aaron Brooks
Hanwha: Min-woo Kim

Brooks is another former MLB arm looking to run through the KBO with hopes a big-league club will give him another shot. Through 110 innings with Oakland and Baltimore in 2019, he piled up a 5.65 ERA, 5.35 xFIP, and a 15 HR/FB% so he took his chances overseas. His first start against Kiwoom on May 6 went well, going 5.2 innings, striking out six while allowing one run on five hits in a no decision. Offensively, they're middle of the pack in OPS at .796 but have had a terrible amount of luck, grounding into 10 double plays through six games. Outfielder Preston Tucker jumped onto the scene in Sunday's 12-3 win over Samsung, clubbing two home runs and driving in six.

Right hander Min-woo Kim has had a rough go through his first five KBO seasons, never having better than a 5.14 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, or a 4.75 FIP in 254.1 innings. His start against SK on May 6 wasn't much better, serving up two home runs on three hits in 4.1 innings; however, he did fan five hitters. At the plate, Hanwha has been one of the worst, averaging just under four runs per game, scoring just 22 runs which is the second fewest, and carry a team OPS of .701. Kwang-min Song has been solid with a .450 average, two homers and four RBI but the Eagles still need more from Jared Hoying and his .208/.240/.333 slash line.

Aaron Brooks might've had a rough run in the bigs, but if he can mix his 92 mph fastball with his slider that generated a Whiff  % of 34, he could be a dominant KBO pitcher. I expect Kia to carry over some of that offense from Sunday to give Brooks a nice advantage early, which will let him cruise past Hanwha.

Pick: Kia - 1.5

KT Wiz at NC Dinos (-132)

O/U: 8 | ESPN2 at 5:30am EST

Probable Pitchers
KT: Odrisamer Despaigne
NC: Drew Rucinski

The Wiz's early schedule included getting swept by the Lotte Giants followed by splitting two games with the preseason favorite Doosan Bears, only to get to play visitor to an equally hot Dinos team next. Odrisamer Despaigne will start the series off after impressing in his KBO debut, fanning eight hitters and allowing just one over six innings. The 33-year-old bounced around the bigs since 2014 but never really had that moment to prove he belonged. His control wavered and never could put away hitters despite a curveball that ranked in the 86th percentile in spin rate. However, a 93 mph fastball will put him in a position better than just about any arm in the KBO. The offense broke out against Doosan, plating 25 runs in 2 games, thanks to guys like Mel Rojas Jr and Sung-woo Jang. The .807 team OPS and 18 extra-base hits are some of the best marks in the league.

What's not to say about the NC Dinos of late? They were undefeated until a 10-8 loss on Sunday, and through their first five games they have a +17 run differential. Righty Drew Rucinski will open up the series on the hill. He began 2020 where he left off in 2019, completing six scoreless innings, while scattering three hits, striking out six and walking four on Opening Day. He won't blow hitters away, but his 16 K%, 6 BB%, and .243 opponent average from '19 show that he knows how to be effective in the KBO. At the dish, the team leads with nine homers, 37 runs scored, and an .871 OPS. Jin-hyuk No's six RBI lead's the squad but the Dinos have nine other hitters with multiple RBI thus far.

Given the names of both starters, many would favor a low-scoring pitchers duel; however, these two offenses are just too potent. While Rucinski is a little safer, Despaigne is certainly capable of having blow-up innings and I think either side could hit this total on their own with a big inning.

Pick: Over 8

SK Wyverns (-118) at LG Twins

O/U: 8.5

Probable Pitchers
SK: Nick Kingham
LG: Woo-chan Cha

After a week, it's the Wyverns who might have the worst lineup in the league. If they didn't have Dong-min Han in the middle of the order, they've be short of six RBI, including three solo home runs. They aren't able to get on base effectively (.293 team OBP) and even when they do get in scoring position, they hit at a .216 clip as a team. Nick Kingham was just "okay" in his KBO debut on May 5, scattering six hits, striking out four, and walking two through seven innings. There's a lot more to expect here from the Wyverns and once Jamie Romak can get going at the plate, things may change.

The LG Twins are a sleeper team this season, and once their top rotation arms get up to full strength, they'll certainly have their opponents attention. Woo-chan Cha was locked in against the preseason favorite Doosan Bears on Opening Day. The southpaw went six strong, allowing one run on a trio of hits while striking out seven and walking a pair. If nothing, he's been consistent since coming to LG in 2017. He's averaged 11 wins, 171 innings, and a 4.54 ERA. Not too shabby for a 32-year-old. Offensively, the Twins lineup has five lefties in the starting lineup, including Roberto Ramos and Hyun-soo Kim who've provided consistency when needed. As a team, they lead the league with 15 doubles and are second with an .832 OPS. We'll be paying attention to this team all season.

This is a sneaky good pitching matchup and would probably be a great game to have on ESPN. Cha may not have the stuff of Kingham, but he's been around this league and he knows how to work a lineup. Also consider the lefty-heavy Twins lineup at home and I like LG to take down the Wyverns.

Pick: LG Twins ML -105

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