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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/10/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Mother Nature had other plans for us on Saturday morning, with three of five games getting postponed. Luckily Kiwoom was still able to get their game in and gave us a nice 5-3 win to cash at least one bet. Also luckily for us, the KT/Doosan game that was postponed on Saturday should feature the same pitching matchups for Sunday, so that area of the article will look exactly similar to yesterday's piece, as I think that game will be absolute fireworks.
- Friday, May 8 Picks: 1-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 5-1
Sunday brings us the return of some top of the rotation arms, so the pitching will be a bit better than normal. While we're still learning a lot about these organizations, sportsbooks are being very conservative with their odds. This will make finding value a little tougher in the early going but that makes researching all the more enjoyable.
I won’t promise that I’m some expert on the KBO but once I knew they were playing, I’ve been spending my evenings doing research and trying to become acclimated with the teams, players, and any stats that I can get my hands on. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. And feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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KT Wiz at Doosan Bears (-194)
O/U: 9.5
The Wiz slugged out 22 hits in a 12-3 series opening win on Friday. All but one starter recorded a hit and eight hitters recorded multiple hits on the day while seven guys drove in a run, proving it was a very good day for the team out of Suwon. Offensively, Mel Rojas Jr. continues to be a feared hitter. His .563 average is tied for the league lead, meanwhile he added his first homer of the year on Friday and he's also recorded four doubles thus far, which also tops the KBO. Behind him in the lineup is Jae-Gyun Hwang who is looking to get hot again after clubbing 20 homers a year ago. Righty Min Kim gets the ball on Saturday and he certainly has some ships to right after going 6-12 last year with a 4.96 ERA. His ratios don't help matters with a 14 K% and a near 10 BB%, all the while he served up 16 home runs.
Doosan was naturally the odds on favorite to win the league in 2020 after capturing the title last year. Their talent isn't hidden, boasting Jose Fernandez, Jae-il Oh, and Jae-hwan Kim but Jae-ho Kim has also stepped up as all four are batting over .350 through four games. While Fernandez hasn't driven in a run yet, Oh and both Kim's have driven in nine combined. On the hill will be Yong-chan Lee. The 30-year-old has been around the block since 2008, mixing between starter and reliever. In 26 starts last year, he was 7-10 with a 4.07 ERA, 16 K%, and 7 BB%. However, the 168 base knocks plus 15 homers allowed in 148.1 innings means he has the tendency to have some long innings.
Both teams have some of the best hitters in the league and either side has a plus pitching matchup. If sportsbooks offered KBO home run props, I'd place a bet on a Fernandez or Rojas home run. Regardless, this should be one of the higher scoring games on the slate.
Pick: Over 9.5
SK Wyverns at Lotte Giants (-124)
O/U: 9.5
The Wyverns have some real talent at the plate, but so far the pitching hasn't benefitted them. Outfielder Dong-min Han has been one of the hottest hitters in the KBO with three homers and six RBI already, but SK is still waiting Jamie Romak to pop off. He has three doubles and an RBI in 2020 but he has 103 home runs in three KBO seasons, so it's only a matter of time. On the hill, Tae-hoon Kim will make just his 13th career start in nine KBO seasons, and his first since 2018. Over the last two seasons, he's been one of the Wyverns most reliable bullpen arms with a 3.85 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and a 24.6 K%.
Dan Straily was one of the bigger names coming from Major League Baseball over to the KBO this year. His debut was solid, but nothing spectacular, allowing two runs, on just three hits, including a home run. He's looking for a redemption season after a dismal 2019 with the Orioles, so Straily will really look to keep the good mojo flowing against SK. Shortstop Dixon Machado is another new foreigner who has made an immediate impact, dropping two long balls through the first four games. He hit a career high 17 last year in Triple-A Iowa, so expect to continue seeing this power approach from the 28-year-old. Four other Giants have at least four RBI to this point, so they're definitely clicking.
Lotte should be favored much more heavily here. Given Kim's inexperience as a starter, the Giants will look to get into the Wyverns bullpen quickly. I don't think day off will cool Lotte down at all and this is a great spot at home.
Pick: Lotte ML -124
LG Twins (-143) at NC Dinos
O/U: 9 | ESPN2 at 1am EST
The Twins are thankful for the Saturday rain out so they can welcome back Casey Kelly from quarantine after being arguably their best pitcher in 2019. Kelly went 14-12 but carried a 2.55 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP through the year. The former first-round pick has never really been a strikeout pitcher but is a master at throwing strikes and pitching to contact. His 17 K% and just 5 BB% in 2019 is evidence of that. He'll look to get his Twins back on track after three straight losses following an Opening Day win. While they scored five runs on Friday, their bats haven't been much help. Roberto Ramos is likely still getting adjusted to the slower pitching of the KBO from Triple-A, although he is hitting .438 but has just one RBI. Hyun-soo Kim and Min-sung Kim have been the primary run producers so far, but the Twins will need more to compete with NC.
The Dinos are proving to be a very formidable opponent this 2020 KBO season. Through just four games they have 10 hitters with at least two RBI and seven guys with at least one home run; talk about production. Jin-hyuk No has been the leader in the clubhouse with two homers and five RBI, while Aaron Altherr and Eui-ji Yang sem to be waiting in the wings before taking off. 20-year-old southpaw Young-kyu Kim gets the ball for the first time this year and as a rookie in 2019, he was serviceable for NC. He went 5-4 with a 5.29 ERA in 66/1 innings, and while his 15 K% and 10 BB% are far-less than stellar, he did a good job stranding runners to a 72% clip.
The NC Dinos are my favorite to win this league, and I think a lot of people are catching on as well. Since Kelly is back on the bump, his ways of limiting big innings will be brought to the test against the Dinos. I'm also banking on Kim having the lefty advantage over the five left-handed hitters in LG's starting lineup. LG is the favorite here solely because of Kelly, so I wouldn't fault you if you rode NC moneyline here, but I like this one to be a lower scoring affair.
Pick: Under 9
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