KBO Betting Picks (5/19/20) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

May 18, 2020

Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 5/19/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.

I left off on a great note, another sweep, on Saturday's KBO slate. The matchups were right and the cards fell the right way, and I'm 8-0 in my last eight recommendations. We're moving onto the third week of the season and teams and players are starting to hit their stride, which is where we can learn more which helps make better informed decisions.

• Saturday, May 16 Picks: 3-0
• 2020 KBO Season: 17-6

My apologies for not being able to ride the train and get picks out for Sunday. It was a very busy and hectic Saturday, where life took over just about every second of my time. Everything is all good but sometime, you gotta do, whatcha gotta do! I do appreciate the recent communication with some of you on Twitter, it's nice to hear that I'm able to help someone make some money. Again, I'm not a professional with an algorithm.

Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Tuesday, May 19th at 530am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.

NC Dinos (-120) at Doosan Bears

O/U: 9.5 | ESPN at 530am EST 

Probable Pitchers
NC: Mike Wright (1-0, 2.45 ERA)
Doosan: Young-ha Lee (1-0, 2.38 ERA)

The Dinos sit atop the KBO standings at 10-1 and few would question why that is. A .281 team average, an .847 OPS, 69 runs scored, and 40 extra base hits are great, but it's their pitching staff that's carrying some real weight. They've surrendered five runs or more just four times in their 11 games. They've held opposing hitters to just a .225 average while holding a league-best 3.26 ERA. Mike Wright opens up the series on the hill for NC and he's been great through his first two KBO outings. Surrendering just three totals runs to Samsung and KT don't add up to the challenge that Doosan will bring, but he's shown the change of scenery doesn't affect him.

If Doosan wants any shot at repeating as champions, they'll need to get their pitching staff, specifically the bullpen, in order. Their key starters have been pretty solid, including Tuesday's starter Young-ha Lee. So far he's been able to handle LG and Lotte, who Doosan is tied with at 7-4, so going up against NC is no strange feeling. An important note is that through his last five home starts dating back to 2019, he's 4-0 and allowed just five runs over 30.1 innings (or a 1.48 ERA). This Bears offense will certainly be behind him to help. They're hitting .337 with 46 extra-base hits, and 82 runs scored through just 11 games. Jose Fernandez might be the hottest hitter in the league but Jae-hwan Kim and Jae-il Oh have driven in 27 runs combined.

This is going to be a great matchup to have on ESPN. Two of the top offenses in the league with a great starting pitching matchup is always a key to an exciting game, one way or the other. I'm targeting Doosan, due to Lee's performance at home. While those numbers were from a season ago, I'm a firm believer in pitchers performing well when they're comfortable.

Pick: Doosan +100

Hanwha Eagles at KT Wiz (-180)

O/U: 9.5 | 

Probable Pitchers
Hanwha: Si-hwan Jang (1-1, 3.75 ERA)
KT: William Cuevas (0-1, 5.73 ERA)

I love this KT offense and I think it's only a matter of time before everyone else (including Vegas) realizes it too. They just plated 33 runs in a three-game sweep of Samsung after scoring just 10 in the series prior. They now hit .311 with an .857 OPS, 42 extra-base hits, and 76 runs scored, all of which are second best in the KBO. While Mel Rojas Jr. is hitting .426 with a pair of homers, it's Baek-ho Kang and Sung-woo Jang that have done the dirty work with 14 extra-base hits and 23 RBI between the two of them. William Cuevas gets to come back home after quieting NC his last time out. At home in 2019, he went 9-6 with a 3.35 ERA, which includes six inning  of shutout ball against Hanwha.

Hanwha just got dealt an enormous blow by losing Oh and Ha. They could honestly be larger favorites here. Jang is certainly no push over on the mound, but the KT Wiz lineup is on a roll. Meanwhile, Cuevas being back at home will be a big boost and the Wiz should be able to take care of business.

Pick: KT -1.5

Lotte Giants (-128) at Kia Tigers

O/U: 10.5 

Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Jun-won Seo (1-0, 4.09 ERA)
Kia: Min-woo Lee (1-0, 5.09 ERA)

Lotte cooled off a bit to end last week, losing the series to Hanwha, yet they won the run differential 10:8, considering both of their loses were by one run. Consider that just the luck of baseball. The offense is hitting .289 with an .818 OPS, 66 runs scored, and 39 extra-base hits. Six guys have at least seven RBI while Dixon Machado and Jun-woo Jeon have done the heavy lifting with four long balls. The Giants are throwing out 19-year-old Jun-won Seo who's had a rough go in the early part of his career, but has also shown signs of potential. The downside here is that as a righty, some of Kia's heaviest hitter bath from the left side.

The Tigers have had their fair share of moments to open 2020, but aside from a handful of games, they've been pretty inconsistent. The .261 team average and .714 OPS are both middle-of-the-road for the KBO, but with the last series as evidence, they are capable of popping off for 13 runs. American Preston Tucker has blossomed into one of the most feared hitters in the league (he even won a car for hitting a home run!) and leads the league with five homers and 20 RBI. Righty Min-woo Lee will make his 15th career start and he's been pretty rough around the edges thus far. He's allowed just 10 homers through 68 appearances, but struggles mightily with command and getting hit around the yard. He has a career 1.58 WHIP and an astounding .345 BABIP.

Lotter is without question the better team here and you could easily take the moneyline on them and I couldn't question it. However, I'm going after the total here and think we see both bullpens get plenty of work in on Tuesday.

Pick: Over 10.5

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis