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It's time for my favorite piece to write every year -- my bold predictions for the upcoming NFL season.
Last year's bold predictions went...okay. I hit on Leonard Fournette becoming a receiving threat and was basically correct on Josh Allen, who was almost a top-five fantasy quarterback. My Albert Wilson take, however, was something we can just safely ignore because...yeah, that wasn't great.
Anyway, below are five bold predictions. Will they be right? Who knows! These are the kinds of things that I really want to happen, even if I'm not so sure they actually do happen. Let's go!
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Will Fuller V Is A WR1 On A Per-Game Basis
Yes, I'm hedging here with the per-game part, because there's no way I'm predicting a fully healthy year for Will Fuller.
But look, if we're talking about a per game kind of thing, a healthy Will Fuller is -- and always has been -- the perfect wide receiver for Deshaun Watson. He stretches the field, allowing Watson to buy some time in the backfield and then launch the ball to him for the big play.
Let's talk about 2018. Fuller played just seven games but caught 503 yards and four touchdowns. That included three games with 100-plus yards and a touchdown, and it happened on a team that had DeAndre Hopkins taking on a huge target share. That also included a game against the Colts where Fuller played just 31 percent of the team's snaps, but still had four catches for 49 yards and a touchdown.
Fuller might lead the NFL in air yards per target this year. He's a key deep threat for a vertical offense. When he's on the field, he'll be a WR1.
There's No Quarterback Breakout
In 2019, the breakout quarterback was Lamar Jackson, and to lesser extents, Jameis Winston and Josh Allen. In 2018, it was Patrick Mahomes. In 2017, it could have been Deshaun Watson if he'd played more than seven games.
So, who will be this year's breakout QB?
No one.
Kyler Murray is a candidate, but he was already QB7 last year, so 1) improvement is expected and he's a No. 1 overall pick, so if he improves to QB4 or so, is that really a breakout, and 2) I'm not convinced he gets the passing volume or the touchdown rate needed to actually improve on his 2019 production.
Beyond Murray, breakout candidates are...who, exactly? Baker Mayfield, who had plenty of chances already and didn't do it? Daniel Jones, who ranked 28th among quarterbacks in true completion percentage last year and 23rd in accuracy rating? Joe Burrow, a rookie in a year where it will be harder than ever to be a rookie?
Nope. To borrow a phrase from the DFS world, I expect the quarterback position to be pretty chalky this year. If guys surprisingly sneak into the QB1 tier, it'll be because of injuries or struggles from players who we thought were better than them.
Someone In Washington's Backfield Becomes A Viable Fantasy Option
Look, no one is saying that the backfield is Washington isn't a mess. It is. They've got approximately 23 different running backs on their roster right now, none of whom inspire confidence.
But with Dwayne Haskins and some unproven wide receivers, Washington's going to need to rely on their running game, which is where someone comes in.
I think things could shift as the season goes along, but for 2020, Antonio Gibson could get the workload to be a fantasy flex starter as veteran Adrian Peterson was released. Bryce Love, Peyton Barber, and J.D. McKissic all exist, but it's unclear which could challenge Gibson when it comes to playing time.
It's worth noting that before Christian McCaffrey, Ron Rivera teams pretty consistently had someone finish as an RB2/3. From 2011 to 2016, the lead back in Carolina finished between RB24 and RB29. That's not great, but it's playable, which is better than people seem to expect from this team.
Jonnu Smith SZN
Hold on, let me pull up a graphic:
So, Jonnu Smith ranked second among tight ends last year in yards per target, fourth in catch rate, and third in fantasy points per target.
He's a top-10 tight end.
That's it. That's the whole section on Jonnu Smith.
Mike Evans And Chris Godwin Can't Save Tom Brady
Tom Brady has the best weapons around him since what...the Randy Moss days? It won't matter.
Brady is 43 years old. He's coming off a season in which he had his worst completion percentage since 2013 (and third-lowest of any full-time season). He had his fewest adjusted yards per attempt since 2002 and fewest adjusted net yards per attempts since 2013. All of those stats help us see Brady's fall off.
Want some more? His completion percentage on everything but his deep ball last year was rough:
Now, the completion percentage isn't everything. His supporting cast last year was not good, ranking 17th among quarterbacks in supporting cast efficiency while Jameis Winston's supporting cast efficiency ranked sixth.
But still. Brady's supporting cast can't get all the blame for his struggles in so many phases of the game last year. Brady took a step back. It happens when players get to this age. It usually happens way before players get to this age. No one can be good forever.
Many people think Brady's a QB1 this year. And if his deep ball completion percentage holds up like it did last year, sure. But I can't actually sit here and tell you that a 43-year-old quarterback is going to be a top-10 deep-ball thrower. Nothing is going to make me believe that. Brady is going to keep regressing. Bruce Arians' offenses are built around gunslinging, but if Brady can't gunsling, something's going to change. Brady will throw it short more. He'll hand it off to Leonard Fournette more. And when he has to throw it, he'll complete his passes at a progressively lower rate.
Age has caught up to Tom Brady.
He's not a fantasy QB1.
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