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Chicago Bears RB Jordan Howard has been a fantasy football bust so far in 2018. Dom Petrillo analyzes Howard's fantasy value going forward and provides advice on what to expect of him and Tarik Cohen the rest of the season.
Coming into 2018, Jordan Howard was said to have been working very hard on his game. He was practicing on the Jugs machine after practice and he was going to be a better pass-catcher than in his first seasons in Chicago. Not like he could have gotten worse, but I digress.
Many analysts, myself included, had him as a top-12 running back as he was going to grow with Mitch Trubisky and be in the alpha role in the Bears backfield. Six weeks in and it looks like he is barely a number two running back for fantasy purposes. Yes, Trubisky has had a breakout in recent weeks but it seems with these performances, he has left Howard behind.
Whether you are a fan of the Monsters of the Midway or not, you are still wondering like the rest of us, what is going on with Jordan Howard this season? Is he the guy who put up over 1,100 rush yards last season or is he the guy who is only averaging 54 rushing yards a game this season? The truth is, no one knows. He is not as good as last season and I find it hard to believe he is as putrid as he has been playing this season. So, what do you do if you are a Howard owner left wanting more than you are currently getting from your second or third-round draft pick?
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Barely Holding Value
In the Week 4 domination of the Buccaneers, Howard was limited to 11 rushes for 25 yards. You could say he was removed from the game plan due to the score, as he was not needed with Trubisky throwing for six touchdowns. This may be true but coming out of the bye week and facing the Dolphins in a closer than thought game he again disappointed. Against the Dolphins, he ran the ball 14 times for 69 yards and also had a lost fumble which accounted for a fantasy score of only 4.9 points making his total over the last two games only 7.4. Not only is this bad for a two-week total, especially out of your probable RB1, but it would be terrible even for one week.
With the running back position beleaguered this season with down years from David Johnson and the eternal holdout of Le’Veon Bell along with the addition of Devonta Freeman to the IR ranks this week, it is likely you will need to keep and start Jordan Howard, at least for the foreseeable future. This said, he may not even be the best running back on his own team at this point with Tarik Cohen showing a stronger upside.
Matt Nagy comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree which has had running backs like Kareem Hunt, LeSean McCoy, and Duce Staley. These backs have a lot more in common with Cohen than they do Howard. They were all known pass-catching backs like Cohen and this makes it likely the Bears may move on from Howard after this season through trade or after next season through free agency. If this likely scenario does in fact happen, the Bears will want to see what they truly have in Cohen before committing to him for their future.
This season, Cohen has rushed the ball 32 times for 170 yards and one touchdown. His 5.3 yards per attempt is almost a full two yards better than the 3.5 put up by Jordan Howard who has 272 yards on 78 rushes in 2018 and it is clear the bears are trying to get Cohen more involved in the offensive scheme taking more and more opportunities away from Howard. As stated this is due mostly to the fact that while Howard is a negative as a receiver with only 10 catches for 78 yards on 13 targets this season, Cohen is a plus in this area of the field having already caught 21 catches for 259 yards and one touchdown on 25 targets. His 21 receptions through the first five games are only two fewer than Howard had all of 2017.
Is Jordan Howard going to lose his starting job to Tarik Cohen this season? Probably not. But he is going to lose a lot of touches none the less as Cohen becomes more and more a focus of the short pass game. This makes both players risky propositions going forward and keeps them both firmly in the low end running back two conversation and not in the discussion for a running back one which is what especially Howard was drafted as in fantasy drafts. Given the current outlook for running backs, Howard can't be benched but he could be sold if another leaguemate is willing to pay close to his pre-draft price.
