Jon Anderson's Third Base Tiered Rankings and Projections

February 13, 2022

Jon Anderson looks at the third base position, separating ranked players into tiers to help you get a better understanding of the position at a high level for 2022.

We're really getting close to the draft season now, and we're firmly on our way through the different positions, ranking and tiering off the top-300 or so players.

Today, we look at third base. Typically, this has been a pretty heavy position full of big-time hitters. The top of the ranks is still that, we have a few of the game's best hitters here. What we don't have is many steals or much depth. After the top three tiers, you really aren't able to feel super confident with your pick. You can only cover so many positions with your first handful of picks, but third base does seem like a good place to get someone early.

Let's break down the third base fantasy baseball rankings tiers and see what we have to work with!

Tier One - The Elite

The lone man on top. Ramirez is one of only two players at this position projecting for more than 20 steals. He does that while also giving you a great supply of runs, homers, and RBI. The one slight hole in his game is the batting average, but you can see the "median" projection of .270 here is still pretty good in today's league. J-Ram is elite.

Tier Two

And just like that, the steals are gone. You can still get 5-10 from these two names, but the real appeal here is that these are two of the league's top power bats, and they both manage strikeouts very well. They can put up a really good batting average with some BABIP luck, and both are great bets for 35 homers and an easy 100 RBI.

Tier Three

I nearly put Riley in Tier Two; I think he's pretty darn similar to Machado and Devers. The thing that kept him out of there was the lack of sample size and the full lack of steals. It is really tough to get a steals projection of zero, you don't see it very often.

The rest of those three names are pretty similar. All were previously first-round guys in fantasy, but have struggled a bit in recent years. Arenado is great for power numbers, but won't steal and will probably hit below .270 for the rest of his career outside of Coors Field. Bryant has more upside than the rest of the group with some steals ability, and Bregman is a fine consolation prize at this price - although there are real questions about his power potential these days.

Tier Four

Rendon could certainly have a bounce-back healthy season and end up in Tier Two next year, but he has really struggled since joining the Angels. Not only has he struggled to stay healthy, he just hasn't been a great power source with them. You can see that evidenced by his low 23 homer projection. He's just not a game-changing fantasy bat with the lower power output and no steals.

The upside bats are Hayes and Mondesi, but honestly, I'm not sure why you'd want to mess around with Mondesi at this point - but I get it if you get absolutely no steals early on. LeMahieu is a fine source of runs and batting average but really does not have much else in his game.

Tier Five

I much prefer this tier, relative to price, as compared to Tier Four. I think Urias is a guy that will really have a nice year here with his contact and power abilities, but the ceiling is relatively low. Turner had one of his best years at the plate at age 36, showing off really great power while still hitting for a great batting average. Eventually, age will catch up with him, but I'm not sure it's this year. Donaldson hit plenty of lasers last year, but isn't quite an everyday player at this point and has had all kinds of troubles with injuries. As for Moncada, he's pretty much a "blah" player right now - but there's still hope for some upside to be realized at just the age of 26.

Tier Six

You're really giving up batting average with most of these names, but you can get some homers from this group. Chapman and Suarez have been all-or-nothing bats for a few years now, and the rest of these guys just don't do anything particularly well. It's not a tier you want to fill your starting spot with, but some fine utility or bench options here.

Tier Seven

And here's "the rest". There's some upside with young guys like Bohm and Biggio, and some boring but steady producers in Diaz and Moustakas. I don't think any of these are start-worthy fantasy players, but you can pick them for your bench and hope for the best.

My Third Base Strategy

Ramirez is my #3 overall player right now just because of the steals. I like Riley quite a bit as well as I think he's going to end up really close to Devers and Machado this year and is much cheaper. I also still like the buy-low on Rendon and Bregman.

As for late-round picks, there's no one I'm really excited about, but I do expect to have some shares of Urias and Donaldson in the middle rounds. I'm also not opposed to grabbing a lottery ticket on Bohm or Biggio very, very late. Thanks for checking out the third base tiers!

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