RADIO
San Francisco Giants outfielder Joc Pederson had a huge start to the 2022 season for fantasy baseball but has been a faller since July began. Mark Kieffer explains why fantasy managers should trade the slugger now while they can.
Joc Pederson got off to a great start this season. If you had him in your fantasy lineups during April, May, and June, you enjoyed elite production of 17 home runs, 33 runs, 39 RBI, two steals, and a .276 batting average in those first 65 games played. He hit six home runs in April and May each, then six home runs in June. He was on pace for over 30 home runs, 75+ runs, and 80+ RBI at one point this season. At the end of June, Pederson was tied for 13th in HRs, above average in batting average as well.
It was looking like his 2019 season all over again when he hit .249, hit 36 home runs, scored 83 runs, and had 74 RBI. Then he fell back to Earth. Hard.
In the month of July, Pederson's production slowed down. He hit .143, hit zero home runs, scored three runs, and had just four RBI in 20 games played through July 26th. In his last five games played, he has been a pitch hitter in four of them. As his production slows down, his opportunities at the plate will slow down too.
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What Should Fantasy Managers Do With Joc?
I recommend trading Joc Pederson if you play in a trading league. Admittedly, it would have been better to have traded him a month ago, you should still try to move him now while you can.
Even with the horrendous July, he is a top-40 outfielder in aggregate production, and someone who is not watching closely may not be noticing his downward trend as much as the person who has Pederson in their lineup is.
Who Can We Trade Joc Pederson For?
This is a great question and the answer will depend on what kind of league you are in and who is in your league. Below is a list of names to try to get and see if anyone bites.
Andrew Vaughn - OF for OF swaps don't happen often but Vaughn does have 1B eligibility as well and could be someone to look at to help at 1B if you have a hole there. In aggregate, he is hitting .295 with 10 home runs, 38 runs, and 49 RBI.
This could look like a power-for-average swap, and while he will boost your average, I have a better outlook for Vaughn going forward than Pederson. He is going to play every day, and in July, he has been trending upward with three home runs, 16 RBI, and 13 runs in 20 games played.
Alex Bregman - This might be a harder one to pull off because Bregman is a "name" meaning people place a higher value on him than they should relative to his stats. On the year, Bregman is batting .238 with 12 home runs, 49 runs scored, and 49 RBI.
Pederson has a higher batting average and more home runs than Bregman. If I had Bregman on my fantasy team, I'd be frustrated with him as there are at least 10 guys at third base I'd rather have this year.
Bregman is a career .276 hitter, his BABIP is just .247, and his batting average should improve. Additionally, he will outproduce the counting stats due to having more playing time.
Ketel Marte - Similar to Bregman, Marte is liked in the fantasy community and may be difficult to trade for. Marte is batting .267 with nine home runs, 47 runs, 35 RBI, and just four steals.
Marte is batting better than him, but .267 is a low average for Marte. Additionally, Marte has scored nine more runs and has eight fewer RBI than Pederson. Also, Pederson has three steals compared to Marte's four.
Marte is a career .285 hitter so he should hit for a better average than Pederson down the stretch, and if he stays healthy, he likely will outproduce Pederson in the counting stats by having more plate appearances than him.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - Gurriel is hitting .313 with five home runs, 40 runs, 41 RBI, and three steals. He has only outproduced Pederson in average and runs scored, while Pederson has hit 12 more home runs than Gurriel.
While the batting average should remain better (Gurriel is a career .289 hitter), hopefully more power is coming for Gurriel as he has a .191 career ISO and just a .121 ISO this season. In a full season with a .190 ISO, he hit 21 home runs.
It is reasonable to expect Gurriel to hit eight to 10 home runs the rest of the season, and that number could be close to what Pederson produces the rest of the season. Similar to the other guys, the counting stats should outperform Pederson due to having more plate appearances.
Carlos Carrasco - It might be tough to trade for Carrasco given the team he plays for and how popular they are. While he has 10 wins, 4.07 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP have been disappointing, he is striking out 23% of batters as opposed to his 25% mark over his career.
The good news for Carrasco is that his xFIP is 3.56. His WHIP should improve as well as his 6.4% walk rate is in line with his career 6.3% mark. His BABIP against is .344 and that number should come down. His WHIP going forward should be closer to his career 1.22.
Jose Berrios - People are so done with Berrios that he might be thrown in for something else. With Berrios, his xFIP of 3.95 is much better than his ERA of 5.20. He also has a high 1.37 WHIP due to his BABIP being .321 as his walk rate is the lowest of his career at 5.6%.
I am not expecting anything elite, but he could perform like his 2020 season down the stretch here with an ERA closer to 4.00 and a WHIP in the 1.20 range with his lowered walk rate.
Despite the struggles, he has seven wins on the year as a benefit of being on a good team with a good offense.
Lucas Giolito - He is very similar to Berrios in that his xFIP (3.72) is much better than his ERA (5.12). His 1.46 WHIP is super high but he has a .350 BABIP against, which is also ridiculous.
I would expect similar numbers as the ones cited with Berrios down the stretch with an ERA closer to 4.00 and a WHIP more in the 1.20-1.30 range.
Nathan Eovaldi -Eovaldi should have better numbers for the rest of the season. He has a 4.30 ERA with a 3.18 xFIP. While his strikeouts are down, he will still average more than one strikeout per inning, and his 4.4% walk rate is great. If he can get his ERA down, he would be a low-end SP2 to SP3 the rest of the season.
Alex Cobb - Cobb is another pitcher who should be pitching much better than he is. He has a 4.26 ERA but a 2.98 xFIP. His 22.8% strikeout rate is still higher than his career strikeout rate of 19.5%. His walk rate is the lowest it has been since 2019. Similar to some of these other pitchers, his BABIP against .332.
I would expect his ERA and WHIP to be better these last couple of months down the season. He should be a top 50-60 starting pitcher and he currently is not. Being 84% owned in leagues, he could be on the waiver wire in our league and you should consider adding him if that's the case anyway.
Wrapping Things Up
Joc Pederson had a nice run and we should move him off our fantasy teams before he starts giving us too many zeros in our fantasy lineups. In addition to the names above, I could probably list another 10-15 names to potentially trade Pederson for.
If you are looking to move Pederson and want some ideas, feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @Mark_Kieffer and I'd be happy to help you with your trade questions regarding Joc Pederson or other fantasy advice.
Good luck RotoBallers!
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