RADIO
CURRENT ADP: Not Drafted
RANKINGS STATUS: Undervalued
ANALYSIS: After being a trendy midseason pickup last year, Milwaukee SP Jimmy Nelson struggled with a 4.93 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. He subsequently dropped out of favor with fantasy owners. However, his peripherals suggest he was actually better than he pitched as he posted a 3.78 and 3.92 FIP and xFIP, respectively. While neither of those numbers are eye popping, once you consider that Nelson suffered from a .344 BABIP and 66.6% strand rate, there is considerable room for improvement.
While Nelson struck out batters at a middling 7.4 K/9 clip, his minor league numbers suggest he has serious K potential. The Brewers young arm sat at 8.8 K/9 for the length of his minor league career including a 9.24 level in his final year at AAA Nashville in the hitter friendly PCL. Additionally, he continued his trend of slashing his walk rate in the minors into the major leagues by posting a sub-3 BB/9 for the Brewers.
A pitcher who has the ability to post a sub-3 BB/9 and above a 9 K/9 is draftable in nearly every league. Nelson should become less hittable in 2015, dropping his BABIP and LOB% to sustainable levels. Subsequently, his ERA and WHIP will fall to more than serviceable rates.
Nelson sits at 1020 in the Yahoo ranks, which means he's not being drafted in most casual leagues. He could provide staggering returns when you consider what it takes to get him (essentially nothing). For the prudent manager, this presents obvious opportunity. Nelson's low price, an offseason for adjustments, and former high-end prospect status make Nelson a pitcher who should be owned in every 2015 fantasy baseball league
Don’t forget to read all of RotoBaller’s 2015 fantasy baseball rankings and rankings analysis for every position to help prepare for your fantasy drafts. Let’s win some leagues!
