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One of my favorite preseason series here at RotoBaller has been the “10 Bold Predictions” series. It allows authors to pump up a few of the players and teams they like (and deflate the guys they dislike), while also going on record with actual stats and metrics.
Be sure to check out just how wonky we all get this time of year with our entire Bold Prediction Series.
I figured I might as well throw my hat into the ring. Like the others who have gone before me, I’ll be bringing the heat with these predictions. Fire up the fantasy hot take machine and let’s do this.
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Jim Turvey's Bold Predictions for 2017
1) Matt Carpenter ends the season as a top-10 player at all three positions where he qualifies (1B, 2B, 3B)
Carpenter had an alright season in 2016, finishing in the top 20 (just barely) at 1B, 2B, and 3B. That positional flexibility alone gave him added value, but Carpenter should be even better in 2017. Carpenter finished third among qualified hitters in hard hit ball rate in 2016 (just behind David Ortiz and Freddie Freeman), but unlike his fellow hard hitters, didn’t have a great BABIP nor a great HR/FB rate to show for it. Despite a hard hit ball rate of 41.9 percent, Carpenter had a rather pedestrian .307 BABIP and 13.3% HR/FB rate. In order to find a player with a lower HR/FB rate than Carpenter, one has to go all the way down to Daniel Murphy at 38.2%, the 24th-highest last year. If Carpenter sees his HR/FB rate make the moderate jump into the 17-19% range, he could easily top 25 HR and maybe approach 30. Looking at BABIP, only two go-big-or-go-home types (Jose Bautista and Chris Carter) had a worse BABIP among the top 10 in hard hit ball rate. If we regress Carpenter’s BABIP to hit career (.329), he should end up back in the .285 range. Add those two figures to his steady R and RBI production and you have a guy bound to outperform his current draft slot.
2) Keon Broxton steals more bases than Billy Hamilton
Stats are great and all, but sometimes you have to go with your gut. And my gut loves it some Keon Broxton. Broxton has absolutely no fear on the basepaths, stealing 23 bases in 75 games with the Brewers in 2016. If we merely prorate that number over 162 games, we have 50 steals for Broxton. Hamilton has averaged 57 steals a season over the past three years, so Broxton is certainly going to be in his range. When we factor in Broxton’s on-base ability and the fact that he has a lot more room for growth than Hamilton, who is pretty much what we know he is at this point, and it’s not at all hard to imagine Broxton with more steals than Hamilton in 2017.
3) Dexter Fowler finishes the season as a top-75 player in OBP leagues
When Fowler first came into the league, many folks assumed that he would be a slash-and-run type of player. What the folks who didn’t do the research didn’t know is that Fowler is much more of a wait-and-see type player, one who has had incredible walk rates throughout his entire career. Last season, Fowler posted his best walk rate of his career (14.3%), leading to a .393 OBP that was topped by only ten others in all of baseball. Fowler swung at the fewest pitches out of the strike zone of any hitter in 2016, yes even fewer than Joey Votto and Jose Bautista. With a bit of pop and a bit of speed in his game as well, Fowler has all the tools to post an excellent campaign in 2017.
4) Salvador Perez finishes the season outside of the top 20 at the catcher position
This could happen one of two ways. The first, and far more likely, is that Perez suffers an injury. The Royals have worked their catcher harder than any other backstop in the history of the sport (no, seriously), and it’s bound to come back to haunt them at some point. The other way this could happen is a massive drop in production. Perez has notoriously seen his BA drop each of the past six seasons while his HR total has risen in each of those seasons. What happens if that power slips a bit, though? This is a man with a lot of mileage on his legs already and it’s not hard to imagine his body starting to break down a bit. There are some decent names in the 10-20 range for the catcher position (Welington Castillo, Cameron Rupp) who could easily overtake Perez in 2017.
5) Rougned Odor either finishes the year as a top-2 second baseman, or outside of the top 15
This seems like one of those boom-or-bust seasons for the young Rangers’ second baseman. If he can make a few adjustments at the plate and cut down on his exorbitant strikeout rate, he could jump into the tier of the truly elite in fantasy. He could be a .300 hitter with 30 HR power and 100 R and RBI each. Toss in 15 SB, and he’s a borderline first-round talent. Of course, the flip side of that is if pitchers start to realize just how frequently Odor will offer on pitches out of the zone, and they start to get ahead in the count more often and his BA plummets, dragging his R and RBI with it. Among the top 10 hitters who swing on pitches out of the strike zone (O-Swing% on FanGraphs), only Freddy Galvis (another relative unknown) had a lower first strike rate. If pitchers start to go out of the zone and put Odor behind in the count more often, he’s going to be in a lot of trouble unless he adjusts. Considering Odor’s personality, I don’t see him being too kind to adjustments, meaning I’m leaning towards the “outside of the top 15” half of the prediction.
6) Steve Souza Jr. will end the season out of the league
Sometimes you just have to say goodbye and cut your losses while you still can. The Rays gave up a lot to get Souza (the projection darling, as he was at the time), and that’s the only reason this is a bold prediction and not just a prediction. Souza has seen his strikeout rate increase in each of his three seasons in the big leagues, and his walk rate has dropped in each of those three seasons. Those aren’t good trends. Add in the fact that he can’t stay healthy and isn’t a particularly good fielder and you have a pretty useless player. If the league-wide power boom continues in 2017, Souza has even less value, as that is just about the only thing he brings to the table at this point.
7) The Astros trade Alex Bregman for Jose Quintana
I have to give full and absolute credit for this idea to Michael Baumann who blew my mind with this trade idea in his Astros column last week. As Baumann noted in his piece, the move makes tons of sense for each side, as the ‘Stros already have superstars at each of Bregman’s two more natural positions (Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve) and have Yulieski Gurriel out of position at first instead of third right now. Plus, the Astros rotation could really use an anchor, and there aren’t many better fits than Quintana for that role right now. It would take some hefty stones from Houston to make the move, but a slow start could really put the pressure on for the front office who is beginning to reach make-or-break time.
8) Trevor Story ends the season higher on the player rater than Mookie Betts
Sorry Mookie, I still love you! This prediction is a mix of being incredibly high on Story as well as being a bit low on Betts. It is also predicated on Story staying healthy for the entirety of 2017. If he does, watch out. If we pace out Story’s 2016 to a 162-game pace (dangerous, but again, this prediction is predicated on his complete health), here are his totals: 112 R, 45 HR, 120 RBI, 13 SB, .272 BA - that’s insane. Again, this was his rookie year, and he might get even better… The production was legit, as he hit the ball as hard as anyone in the game last year (second to David Ortiz in hard hit ball rate among hitters with at least 400 PA), and, of course, he has the friendly confines of Coors to play in again in 2017. On the Mookie side of things, he’s obviously awesome, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a slight slip in production. There really aren’t any flaws in his statistical profile, this is just a bit of a gut feeling about the Red Sox missing Ortiz more than some might imagine, both in terms of production and in the dugout. You can’t go wrong with either of these guys, though.
9) The Seattle Mariners break their 15-season playoff drought
Let’s move to a little real-life baseball for these final two predictions. Jerry DiPoto has been Lord of the Minor Moves this offseason, and it’s going to pay off in spades for him come September. The Astros will win the division (more on them in a second), but the Mariners are certainly good enough to win one of the two wild card spots, and then win that game when they get there. The lineup should have some extra oomph with Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura joining their current Big Three of Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager. James Paxton looks ready to make the leap to club ace, allowing King Felix to thrive in the club’s number two role. Edwin Diaz may actually be the protagonist in a superhero TV show that we just don’t know is filming every time he takes the mound. Get ready for playoff baseball once again Seattle.
10) Your 2017 World Series winners: The Houston Astros
Sports Illustrated will be proven prophetic come October. The moves the Astros made in the offseason (Brian McCann, Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick) were just what the club needed to give them the most potent offense in baseball this season. And once we make our hypothetical Bregman-for-Quintana trade above, they will have a legit top three to take into the playoffs (Quintana-Lance McCullers-Dallas Keuchel). The Red Sox are going to be a bit down this year, the Indians will be a bit worn down from last year, and the Cubs are soooo 2016. So who do they beat in the World Series? The Dodgers, of course.
