James Paxton (SP, SEA) - Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Ignore in shallow formats; Stream in 12+ team mixed formats

OWNED IN: 21% of Fleaflicker leagues

ANALYSIS: Overall, Paxton has pedestrian numbers: 2-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 6.99 K/9. These middling numbers mask a massive month to month split, however, as his April ERA was an inflated 5.74 while the May figure has declined to 0.86. The real James Paxton is likely in the middle of the above extremes.

Does that mean he should be on your fantasy team? Probably not, as Paxton's resurgence is the product of good fortune rather than skill. He actually recorded Ks with greater regularity in his terrible April (8.78 K/9) than in this month (4.71). Furthermore, his walk rate is too high overall (3.40/9) and worse in May (4.29). This is likely the result of a decreased O-Swing % (how often batters chase balls out of the strike zone), which has fallen 5.4% compared to last year. The improved performance recently can be traced to a low line drive rate (13%, 22.6% last year), a stat known for random fluctuation. This, in turn, has led to a low BABIP of .257 on the season, well south of both his .270 mark last year and the league wide norm of .300. With the expected regression, Paxton figures to more closely resemble his April self.

This is not to say that there is nothing to like in Paxton's profile. His flyball rate has risen thus far in 2015, with 37.7% of balls in the air against him compared to 22.6% last year. This would normally lead to more HR, but Safeco Field suppresses power (Nelson Cruz notwithstanding). Home games in such a pitcher friendly stadium should allow Paxton to take advantage of the low BABIPs associated with flyballs and maintain at least some of his "luck". His recent run of success also reveals that he can be an effective major league hurler when everything breaks in his favor.

The conclusion, then, is to stream him - you do not want to risk him in your lineup everyday, but he should do alright against weaker opponents in pitcher friendly stadiums. As a fantasy owner, you can control some of what Paxton needs to be effective, selecting him only in the most favorable situations. He won't be your ace, but he can help you cobble together a competent pitching staff.