Fantasy Baseball Champs or Chumps: Jackson Merrill, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wyatt Langford

Are top prospects Jackson Merrill, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wyatt Langford fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deeper dive into the 2024 fantasy value of three players to determine who to start or sit.

The Orioles sent shockwaves throughout the baseball world by sending top prospect Jackson Holliday to Triple-A to begin the season, leaving fantasy baseball managers who rolled the dice on him scrambling for a replacement. It seems some teams prefer service time games to being good, even with the incentives in the new CBA.

Fortunately, plenty of exciting rookies have made Opening Day rosters. Jackson Merrill, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wyatt Langford are among those expected to be fantasy relevant immediately. All are rostered in at least 40% of Yahoo leagues.

What can we expect from these youngsters? Let's find out.

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Jackson Merrill (SS, SD) - 40% Rostered

Merrill made his MLB debut in South Korea, hitting .250 with a double over the two games. That's a small sample size, but it was good to see him get his first big-league hit out of the way. Here's a snapshot of what scouts think of the 20-year-old:

MLB.com largely agrees with the FanGraphs assessment above, grading Merrill's hit tool as a 65, his power at 55, and his footspeed at 50. Based on this scouting report, fantasy managers should expect Merrill to help with batting average with a smattering of homers and steals.

Merrill doesn't have much high minors experience but did log 211 PAs at Double-A (San Antonio) last season. He hit .273/.338/.444 with five homers and steals, but the pedestrian batting line masks an outstanding 8.5% BB% and 11.8% K%. His 41.5% FB% offers some power upside, too, though his 7.4% HR/FB wasn't worth the hit to his .288 BABIP.

Overall, Merrill's profile is similar to Steven Kwan. He doesn't strike out often and runs well, so batting average and steals will be his best fantasy categories. That said, his 9.4% SwStr% at Double-A was higher than anything Kwan has put up at the highest level. Merrill has more power potential than Kwan, but there's no guarantee he will realize it this year.

The Padres are using Merrill in center field, but he primarily played shortstop in 2023. That means he'll start with SS eligibility and should add OF eligibility early in the year, providing versatility to his fantasy managers.

Merrill is a fringe option in mixed leagues. He offers batting average with HR and SB potential but might not make enough of an impact. He's also expected to hit ninth, a role that limits his counting stats while muting his average due to low at-bat totals. That makes him a Champ if your roster needs cheap batting average help with upside, and a Chump otherwise.

Ceddanne Rafaela (OF, BOS) - 41% Rostered

Rafaela reached Boston last season, slashing .241/.281/.386 with two homers and three steals over 89 PAs. The sample was small, but his 4.5% BB% and 31.5% K% were worrying. Here's what the scouts think of the 23-year-old:

Rafaela is a glove-first prospect, and that should give him plenty of playing time for defensively-challenged Boston. However, he can't hit. Many fantasy analysts are calling for a 20/20 season out of Rafaela in 2024, and that's extremely unlikely.

First, his plate discipline is awful. His MLB plate discipline stats were supported by a 15.5% SwStr% and 41.6% chase rate, both of which are atrocious. Sure, it was a small sample. His MiLB SwStr% rates likely provide a better picture of his contact abilities.

And they were worse! Rafaela logged 266 PAs for Double-A (Portland) last season and hit .294/.332/.441 with six homers and 30 steals. His surface plate discipline was fine with a 5.3% BB% and 20.7% K%, but the underlying 17% SwStr% suggests he should have struck out much more frequently.

The performance earned Rafaela a ticket to Triple-A (Worcester), where he hit .312/.370/.618 with 14 HRs and six steals in 219 PAs. Again, his 5.5% BB% and 21.9% K% don't accurately reflect his 16.9% SwStr%. Rafaela could see his K% rise to 40% as a full-time major leaguer, rendering his batting average unplayable.

If you're punting batting average, Rafaela still isn't a good play. He went 39-for-53 on SB attempts across all levels last year for a 74% success rate. The new rules improved SB success rates league-wide, and Rafaela's success rate wasn't high enough to maintain a green light.

Rafaela also struggles with elevating the ball. His 32.1% FB% at Double-A last season was too low to project immediate power production. His 35.5% FB% at Triple-A was a little better but still lower than we'd like to see from a power bat. Rafaela projects as the seventh hitter in Boston's lineup, a role that doesn't lend itself to counting stats even if he runs into a few homers.

The minor leagues have become so hitter friendly that players can put up great-looking numbers with mediocre skills, and that's what happened here. Rafaela is a Gold Glove contender with experience all over the diamond, and you can enjoy his highlight reel plays without rostering this Chump in fantasy.

Wyatt Langford (OF, TEX) - 88% Rostered

Langford was drafted fourth overall just last season, and it's absurd to think he's ready for the major leagues. The now 22-year-old torched four levels in 2023 though, slashing .360/.480/.677 with 10 HRs and 12 SBs in 44 games. Plate discipline is the best thing to look at when dealing with small samples, and Langford's BB% equaled or exceeded his K% at the Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels.

Then, he hit .375/.429/.732 with six homers in spring training. As if that wasn't enough to force Texas's hand, his scouting report looks like this:

A plus-hit tool with elite power and speed? Yes, that should translate well to fantasy. The one knock on Langford is that he isn't much of a defender, and we don't care about that. The Rangers won't have to either, as Langford projects as their designated hitter.

Langford is expected to hit fifth for Texas, a role that should produce many RBI opportunities behind Evan Carter, Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis Garcia. All-Stars Josh Jung and Jonah Heim are behind him, so Langford should score more runs than the average fifth hitter, too.

Langford hasn't struggled yet, but all of the pieces appear to be in place for an amazing Rookie of the Year campaign. He's a Champ, even if we don't have that much data on him.

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