Why It's Worth Investing In a J.K. Dobbins Breakout

Fantasy football is a game of probability so logically selecting the players with the highest probability, also known as the players who will score the most points, would be the best strategy. The other primary consideration though is the cost or investment required to draft that player, also known as their average draft position (ADP).

The true art of fantasy football is when you select a player at a lower cost that provides the same output as other players with a higher cost. This will enable you to better utilize your overall draft capital and maximize the fantasy points your team will score. Identifying these players before your draft can be league-winning, which is the premise for a breakout candidate.

Breakouts occur every year across all positions and one player that seemed destined for a breakout in 2021 was Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins. Unfortunately, there would be no breakout because he tore his ACL in the final preseason game. This ended his campaign before it could ever begin delaying the excitement until 2022. Dobbins began the offseason as a player most were confident about but has since become someone many managers are avoiding due to the recent reports about his health. To accurately evaluate the situation, his health, talent, past production, opportunity (depth chart), workload, and the Ravens' offense all need to be explored.       

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Health

As mentioned above, J.K. Dobbins tore his ACL in the final preseason game entering 2021. The typical timeline for an ACL recovery at the running back position is on average about 10 months, which would have been late June. Given that Dobbins has been unable to participate in most offseason activities, there are concerns about his recovery timeline and the extent of his injury. This includes speculation that he may have also sustained LCL damage to his knee, which remains unconfirmed.

These concerns have been further exasperated by a recent report that the RotoBaller news team broke on July 1st, 2022, where Dobbins was cited as likely to begin training camp on the physically unable to perform list with pessimism about his availability and effectiveness this season, although the Ravens maintain he is on track for Week 1 and expect him to be a factor.

This report pushes the recovery timeline past the 11-month mark closer to a full year, which exceeds the typical duration but would still place Dobbins on the field and ready to play in Week 1.

The other health concern fantasy managers have is the potential impact on his effectiveness and efficiency once he returns, which can occur for running backs the season after an ACL injury. There are a variety of factors that would need to be assessed including age, prior injuries, athleticism, and overall health, so without an in-depth report from a medical expert, the best approach is to consider this as a possibility but not necessarily a probability.

Although it's difficult to predict his recovery, it seems reasonable to assume Dobbins will be on the field in Week 1, even if he's less than 100 percent at that point. What is certain, however, is the talent Dobbins possesses.

Talent

In a draft packed full of talented and exciting prospects, Dobbins was taken 55th overall by the Ravens in Round 2 of the 2020 NFL draft. This was for good reason, as evidenced by this highlight video, which was created prior to the NFL draft and includes many of the exciting traits Dobbins possesses.

The Ravens already had Mark Ingram II, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill on their roster, so selecting Dobbins was a pick they chose to spend on a player they truly believed in. Their concerted effort to acquire Dobbins with high draft capital was in large part because of his incredible Junior season at Ohio State, shown below:

Junior Season Production

With above-average receiving statistics and outrageous rushing totals, Dobbins showcased his outstanding production in his final year of college. Furthermore, he showed off his explosiveness and efficiency averaging nearly seven yards per carry and over 10 yards per reception, a skill set that was on full display in his NFL rookie season.

2020 Rookie Season

To understand the hype for Dobbins, it's helpful to review his 2020 production. In his rookie season, he played 15 games finishing as the RB22 in half-PPR scoring. He had 134 carries for 805 yards and nine touchdowns, adding 18 receptions for 120 receiving yards. This was all while competing for carries in the first half of the season, averaging only six touches (carries + receptions) per game over the first six games.

After Dobbins overtook Mark Ingram in Week 7, joining Edwards as the co-leader in the backfield, he averaged 14 touches per game, 77 yards per game, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. To project that over a full season, he would have had 1,309 all-purpose yards (rushing + receiving) and 14 total touchdowns, which is a possible outcome for Dobbins in 2022.   

Even more impressive than the raw totals are his underlying metrics, which are listed below:

2020 Underlying Metrics

Dobbins finished with top-five efficiency, explosiveness, and elusiveness as an NFL rookie. These are also the features that create his ability to break off long runs, which he had 11 of despite his minimal involvement over the first six weeks of the season.

This skill set is ideal for fantasy because he requires less volume to produce a similar amount of fantasy points as other running backs, reducing the impact of playing in a timeshare. Furthermore, he offers the opportunity to provide the week-winning blowup performances fantasy managers are hoping for.

Ravens' Depth Chart

Players are constantly battling before and during the season to position themselves atop their team's depth chart, increasing their involvement and opportunity for volume. Entering last season, the Ravens' running back depth chart seemed full of talented and capable backs as seen below:

2021 Ravens Preseason Running Back Depth Chart

1. J.K. Dobbins
2. Gus Edwards
3. Justice Hill
4. Ty'Son Williams

After being decimated by injuries in the preseason, only Williams remained, resulting in several free-agent signings and desperation from the organization to assemble a capable running back room. This prompted many experts and analysts to wonder how Baltimore would approach the position, anticipating a possible high-profile signing in free agency or an early pick in the NFL draft.

In the end, the Ravens recruited free agent Mike Davis from the Atlanta Falcons and spent a sixth-round pick to add rookie Tyler Badie, neither of which pose a threat to Dobbins or dramatically impact the depth chart, which remains similar to last year:

2022 Ravens Running Back Depth Chart

1. J.K. Dobbins
2. Gus Edwards
3. Mike Davis
4. Tyler Badie
5. Justice Hill

This leaves Dobbins cemented atop the depth chart as the lead back in the Ravens' run-heavy offense.

Ravens Offense

Baltimore has long been known for their elite rushing attack, priding themselves on pounding the rock. This was further amplified by the addition of Jackson, resulting in superb rushing statistics since he took over as the full-time starter in 2019, as captured below:

Ravens Rushing Statistics

After leading the league in rushing attempts and rushing yards, while finishing top-five in rushing touchdowns in both 2019 and 2020, they dropped to third in rushing attempts and yards, and 10th in rushing touchdowns last season. This was mostly because of their subpar personnel at the running back position and injuries to Jackson.

With a healthy Jackson and Dobbins, this offense will run the ball at a high rate with excellent efficiency.

Workload

Although Dobbins was involved in the passing game at Ohio State catching 23 passes in his Junior year, this is not generally a prominent role in the Ravens' offense. That said, Dobbins finished with 24 targets as a rookie, equating to a 6% target share, which was the sixth-highest on the team.

After trading away Marquise Brown to the Cardinals, his 146 targets are now available. Many of these will be distributed to Rashod Bateman with perhaps even a small increase for Mark Andrews. Inevitably though, some will also go to the running backs, which could lead to an increase for Dobbins.

Additionally, for a player who makes the majority of his impact on the ground, he only received 134 carries in his rookie season, accounting for 24% of the team's rushing attempts, a number guaranteed to increase as the lead back in 2022.

With a potential increase in both his receiving and rushing workload, Dobbins could see top-10 volume to pair with his top-five efficiency, resulting in massive fantasy output.

Conclusion

Determining breakouts, especially at the running back position, is very valuable for fantasy as they can be league-winning draft picks. Dobbins is much murkier to assess because of the recent reports about his recovery and question marks about his health entering the season. 

Despite these unknowns, his elite talent, history of production, and workload as the lead back in the league's most potent rushing offense offer immense upside. Under the assumption that Dobbins is available to start in Week 1, his range of outcomes would include finishing as a top-24 running back if his health impacts his efficiency and a top-10 running back if he's completely healthy.

Dobbins is currently being drafted as the RB22 with an ADP of 51 overall, which has fallen over the past week as a result of the recent news. This makes him an excellent pick who at worst finishes where you drafted him and at best provides an enormous return on investment, finishing inside the top-10.

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