RADIO
Daniel Benjamin examines which New England Patriots offensive players are worth owning in fantasy football in 2018 and which could be buy-low candidates.
After struggling the first three weeks of the season, the New England Patriots offense has looked like the well-oiled machine it was expected to be. The Patriots have averaged 39.7 points and rolled up 462.3 yards of total offense per game over the last three contests. New England's offense was in overdrive versus the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, compiling season highs with 43 points and 500 total yards. The Patriots reached the red zone six times, scoring touchdowns in four of the trips, and put up points in nine of their 12 possessions. The Pats also racked up 173 yards on the ground, marking the second time in the last three games that they have topped the 170-yard mark, while averaging a season-best 6.7 yards a game. Quarterback Tom Brady -- who ranks sixth in the league in touchdown tosses (13) and 10th in completion percentage (67.8%) -- averaged a season-high 9.7 yards per attempt as he completed 24-of-35 passes for 340 yards. By contrast, they managed just 57 points and 900 total yards through the first three weeks, which included a subpar 10-point, 209-yard effort in their Week 3, 26-10 loss to the Detroit Lions.
A big reason for the Patriots increase in production is that they finally have a full complement of weapons. While the offense lost starting running back Rex Burkhead to injured reserve, they have added top offensive weapons in wide receivers Josh Gordon (trade) and Julian Edelman (suspension). In the two games with Edelman in the lineup, Brady has completed 73.4% (58-of-79) of his passes and has topped the 340-yard mark in each of the games while also tossing four touchdowns to go along with two interceptions. The 58 combined completions are his most in consecutive games as are the 681 passing yards this year.
The addition of Gordon and return of Edelman has allowed veteran Chris Hogan, who served as the team's No. 1 receiver through the first four weeks, to move back to his more comfortable role as a secondary option. With those two being in the lineup, it also has permitted Rob Gronkowski more freedom and opened up the running game. 12 different Patriots have caught a pass and nine different players have attempted a run, including Brady and backup quarterback Brian Hoyer. So, the question can be fairly asked: is the Pats offense better than ever? From a fantasy standpoint, who besides Brady and Gronkowski should fantasy owners target or add?
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The Candidates
Julian Edelman
Edelman is Brady's security blanket and the team's top playmaking wide receiver. Despite missing the first four games, Edelman remains Brady's preferred short-to mid-range receiving option. Of the 16 times he has been targeted this year, the 10th-year pro has yet to run a route more than 20 yards. In fact, only three of his routes that he has run have been 15 yards or longer.
Edelman has 11 receptions along with one touchdown for an average of 10.1 yards per catch in two games. All of those stats are similar to his career average.
Josh Gordon
Gordon is one of the most talented and freakish athletic receivers that Brady has ever had. The main question is whether Gordon, who has a history of off-field troubles, can stay on the straight and narrow path? If he is capable of avoiding trouble, Gordon can thrive in coach Bill Belichick's offense.
Gordon saw his most action with the Pats against Kansas City. The 2013 All-Pro selection hauled in five of nine targets for 42 yards against the Chiefs. He now has nine catches for 132 yards and one touchdown in three games with the team.
Chris Hogan
Hogan is coming off his best game of the season against the Chiefs, notwithstanding the Jaguars game when he reeled in two touchdown passes, despite nursing a thigh injury. Hogan -- who made a key 42-yard midway through the fourth quarter that helped set up Brady's four-yard touchdown plunge that put the Pats up 37-33 -- finished with four receptions for 78 yards.
The 29-year-old has produced half of his season's total over the last two contests. He has seven catches, on eight targets, for 112 yards during this two-game stretch. In his previous four games, Hogan totaled eight catches for 109 yards and two scores.
Patterson, who is in his first season in New England, is a very exciting athlete as he can do multiple things and play multiple offensive positions. However, the sixth-year pro has yet to develop into a full-time wide receiver despite being a late first-round pick in the 2013 draft. The two-time All-Pro selection as a special teamer has started 25 games over his career, including one contest this year.
Patterson has totaled 11 receptions for 115 yards and two touchdowns in six games this year. He has three multi-catch games and two games of three receptions. Patterson also has six rushing attempts for 32 yards and seven kickoff returns for 187 yards.
James White
White is on pace to smash his previous usage and scoring records. The versatile back already has touched the ball 66 times, which is only 33 fewer times than he has the last two seasons, and scored five touchdowns -- one away from matching his career best.
White has 149 rushing yards and one touchdown on 29 attempts along with 37 catches for 327 yards and four more scores. The 26-year-old has two games of more than 100 yards from scrimmage. He mainly serves as the pass-catching back in the Pats offense whether lining up in the backfield or out wide. The fifth-year pro has posted three receptions in each of the first six contests and five or more on four occasions.
Dorsett got off to a fantastic start to the season, nabbing 12 of 14 targets for 110 yards and one touchdown through the first two weeks. The 25-year-old receiver, who was a complete non-factor in Week 3, has only seven catches -- on 10 targets -- for 80 yards and a touchdown since then.
Who Is a Must-Have?
Edelman and Gordon are must-haves for fantasy owners in all leagues. Edelman is also a weekly play in DFS leagues. The 32-year-old has been one of Brady's favorite targets since 2013. He saw 71 offensive snaps in Week 6 and will continue to see targets and playing time consummate of a No. 1 receiver. Edelman, who has grabbed 25 of Brady's 501 career touchdown passes, is one of the most efficient pass catchers in the NFL today with a 66.3% catch rate. While he won't likely score a plethora of touchdowns over the remainder of the season, he should be considered a WR2 the rest of the way due to his high floor.
Gordon is more boom or bust, meaning that while he should be on the roster of an owner in all league, his success highly depends on matchups. Gordon, who has quickly moved up the depth chart, does give Brady a very exciting deep and red zone threat. More importantly, Brady trusts him. While he has had some success in the past versus the Patriots upcoming opponents -- Bears and Bills -- they have been average matchups, at best, this year for wide receivers.
White has been one of the best fantasy running backs this year and he will likely continue to see a high volume of touches. However, he is kind of in the same situation as Gordon in terms of boom or bust as his value is highly dependent on touchdowns. White only had one carry inside the 20 and was not targeted in the red zone, last week versus the Chiefs as he was on the field for 10 fewer snaps than in Week 5. If he is not currently owned in your league, you should pick him up or at the very least keep a close eye on him. White is a weekly flex option in PPR leagues, depending on the matchup.
Hogan is someone that fantasy owners should target. Despite the prospects of seeing fewer plays on the field, compared to the first four weeks, Hogan is still very much trusted by Brady. His ability to stretch the field as well as make things happen after the catch keeps him a shaky flex play on given weeks. Overall, Hogan's fantasy value this year is highly dependent on touchdowns and whether he is second or third on the team's depth chart.
Fantasy owners should not consider Dorsett or Patterson going forward, unless multiple players who are in front of them suffer injuries.
What is Sony Michel Worth?
Michel has emerged as a must-own and in most leagues he already is. So, the question becomes what is he worth?
Michel has been fabulous since taking over as the primary ball carrier following Week 3. In the three games since Burkhead's injury, Michael has garnered at least 18 carries and 98 yards on the ground in each game. He also has averaged a solid 4.7 yards per carry while scoring four times during this period.
The 2018 first-round selection is coming off his best fantasy game of the season against the Chiefs. He compiled 106 yards on the ground while scoring twice on Sunday night for 22.6 points, marking the third straight game of him producing 17 or more points. For the season, the 23-year-old rookie has racked up 400 yards and four touchdowns on 91 attempts. Michel also has three catches for 18 yards.
Michel projects as a mid-to-high RB2 for the rest of the season as he will likely see a high volume of carries, although his 22 carry average over the last three games is unlikely sustainable. BenJarvis Green-Ellis (2010), Stevan Ridley (2012) and LeGarrette Blount are the only Pats' running backs to surpass the 200 carry mark this decade. Those three players are also the only Patriots to roll up 1,000 yards in a season during this period.
Michel currently ranks in the top-10 of the NFL in rushing yards (ninth), rushing yards per game (fourth) and touchdowns (eighth). Michel, who has seen the field on 40% or more of the team's snaps in each of the last four weeks, really hasn't been too efficient in the passing game -- garnering just seven targets. He is currently being graded out as being above average as a runner overall (39th) and as a runner (30th) by Pro Football Focus. Additionally, he has graded out as an average receiver.
The answer to the question ultimately lies into how much fantasy owners really need a running back and what type of league are you playing in. If you are playing in a re-draft league, Michel may cost your best player at the position your strongest. I would not trade Juju Smith-Schuster ranked as the 12th best fantasy wide receiver --, though I would consider trading for Tyler Boyd or DeSean Jackson, ranked 13th and 14th, respectively, at their positions. In terms of quarterbacks, I would consider trading Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Joe Flacco, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford for him. In reality, Michel probably should cost fantasy players two of their players ranked between 14-25 at the running back and wide receiver positions.
Now, if you're playing in a keeper or dynasty league, I would think that involves players ranked below the top-three tight ends, top-20 wide receivers, top-15 running backs and top-15 quarterbacks plus possibly a low-to-mid-round draft pick depending on who the player is.
