Re-Squeezing the Juiced - Investigating Second Breakouts From 2017

April 25, 2019

Kent Shen investigates the Statcast numbers and resurgent power of surprising 2017 breakout players like Cody Bellinger, Marcell Ozuna, and Jose Altuve to see if there is a juiced ball to blame or a change in approach.

2017 was a strange year in baseball. The season shattered records and set new offensive bars for the sport as a whole, with speculation running rampant about MLB "juicing" the baseballs to create more excitement, with the end result being a home run surge that saw 1.26 home runs per game being hit - a huge jump over the previous high of 1.17 set during the heart of the steroid era in 2000.

On an individual level, this meant a ton of players setting career highs for power. With MLB seemingly moving away from the juiced balls the next year and power stats settling down, the general rule of thumb was to discard a lot of these career performances as a one-year blip under explained circumstances. Players such as Charlie Blackmon (37 HR in 2017, 29 HR previous career high), Jonathan Schoop (32 HR in 2017, 25 HR previous career high), Zack Cozart (24 HR in 2017, 16 HR previous career high) and even Giancarlo Stanton (59 HR in 2017, 37 HR previous career high) all had "breakout" seasons in 2017 before dropping down to numbers that more resembled their careers in 2018's less homer-happy ecosystem (1.15 HR per game).

Well, 2019 has started off with a blistering 1.33 HR/game so far, and there are a few guys who may have had their 2017 binges written off due to the environment flashing that kind of pop once again. It's still too early to say that this season will finish with the same kind of homer-happy wonderland as 2017, but with a month of production under their belts, it's not too early to look at some of these guys and look for any changes in approach or profile that may suggest that their 2019 re-breakouts are for real. Let's dive in.

Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, LAD)

2017: 39 HR, .315 ISO, .380 wOBA
2018: 25 HR, .210 ISO, .345 wOBA
2019 so far: 11 HR, .449 ISO, .541 wOBA

Bellinger stormed onto the scene in 2017 with a 39 home run rookie season where he slashed .267/.352/.581 before following it up with a still good but not eye-popping sophomore campaign where he hit 25 dingers and slashed .260/.343/.470. This year, Bellinger has been the best hitter in baseball through the season's first month, with the kind of line that is usually reserved for guys who share their last names with fish.

The thing with Bellinger is there was no previous MLB track record to work off of before the 2017 season, so most people didn't know what his normal actually was. Due to the circumstances in 2017, it was easier to just take his 2018 and call it normal, and this led to Cody being under-drafted this season, being projected as a mid-20s home run guy rather than the high 30s guy he was during the juiced year.

Taking a look at Bellinger's StatCast profile shows a 2017 and 2018 season that was almost identical, with an 89.6 average EV and 16.5 Launch Angle in 2017 and an 89.7 EV and 16.1 LA in 2018. The only discernible difference is his Barrel% dropped from 12.2 to 8.6, which just meant he wasn't squaring up to the ball as well. That looks a lot more like something a small change in approach can fix rather than the type of variance that would be caused by something like juiced balls.

That's exactly what it looks like Bellinger has done this year. The biggest difference is an improved strikeout rate, down from 26.6% and 23.9% in his first two seasons to an elite 12.5% this year. His launch angle is down a little bit to 11.8 but that is more than made up for with how much great contact Bellinger is making with a 15.6% Barrel Rate and career-high 93.5 EV.

All of this looks like an excellent young hitter improving his approach as he gains more experience in the league. While there's no way he can keep up his prime Barry Bonds pace for the whole season, xStats supports everything he's done so far, putting him at a .538 xwOBA, which means the regression will not be nearly as hard as some might expect. Bellinger is an even better hitter than his monster 2017 season, and this breakout is about as real as it gets.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, STL)

2017: 37 HR, .237 ISO, .388 wOBA
2018: 23 HR, .153 ISO, .327 wOBA
2019 so far: 8 HR, .359 ISO, .403 wOBA

Ozuna was one of the poster children of the 2017 power surge, putting up a career-high 37 home runs that was 14 higher than his previous career-high of 23 before settling right back to that number in 2018. Nothing in his 2017 profile suggested he was a much different batter in 2017 than previous years; despite an increase in Barrel Rate (9.3 to 9.7) and close EV and LA numbers (90.7/91.5, 10.1/10.8) from 2017 to 2018, many weren't surprised to see him return to his career norms given his approach didn't change much since he entered the league.

This season, Ozuna already has eight dongs in the first month and xStats backs up his power, pegging him at a .617 xSLG, almost identical to his .615 SLG mark. He's been in the 90th percentile in exit velocity his entire career, which meant his power output was locked behind his rather low launch angle that has sat between 10-11 since he entered the league, 2017 notwithstanding.

The difference this year is that Ozuna has made two key adjustments, increased patience at the dish that has seen him improve his walk rate to a career-high 11.2% and a greatly increased launch angle that has helped him to an excellent 17.5% Barrel Rate. His previous profile made him a perfect candidate to benefit from the fly ball revolution and he has done exactly that, bringing his average launch angle up to an excellent 15.4, which is more in line with what you'd expect from power hitters.

2019 Ozuna is certainly a better hitter than he was in 2017, and if he can keep those gains for the remainder of the season, there's no reason he can't match or even exceed his 2017 numbers, even without the aid of juiced balls this time around.

Jose Altuve (2B, HOU)

2017: 24 HR, .202 ISO, .405 wOBA
2018: 13 HR, .135 ISO, .364 wOBA
2019 so far: 9 HR, .322 ISO, .399 wOBA

This one might be cheating a little bit, as Altuve already had a breakout power season in 2016 where he smashed 24 home runs. Many expected that season to be the outlier and for him to return to his previous marks as he made small gains in Exit Velocity and Launch Angle but didn't really show anything to make us think that he had changed his approach to a more power conducive one.

In 2017, those gains all reverted back to his career norms, dropping from 87.5 to 85.5 and 10.9 to 9.1 respectively from 2016 to 2017. Despite the drops, Altuve matched his home run total and was a prime candidate for power regression the next season which saw an 11 HR and 77 basis point ISO dip. With 2018 also being the first time Altuve failed to steal 30 bases since his rookie season, it was a highly disappointing fantasy performance for a guy who many took early in the first round, and it looked liked Altuve's time as a truly elite fantasy option was over.

Enter 2019, where we see baseball's little guy join the fly ball revolution as well. Altuve has jumped out of the gate on a power binge, sporting a career-high 14.6 launch angle and 89.1 mph exit velocity, and that has translated to nine home runs less than a month into the season. xSLG supports the output as well, pegging him at .602, not far off from his .611 SLG. He's more than doubled his previous high water mark in Barrel% as well, posting a stellar 13.9% so far.

It does seem like baseball's premier contact hitter is selling out for power, as his K% has also shot up from his previously low marks to a closer to league average 19.2% number. All of these factors make it seem like Altuve's April is more likely explained by a real change in approach rather than just some fly ball luck, and it seems like this new (old) version of Altuve might be something we have to start getting used to again.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice