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Kev Mahserejian (RotoSurgeon) gives his bold predictions and hot takes for the 2021 fantasy football season.
If you've followed me (@RotoSurgeon) on Twitter for more than a short period of time or even had the displeasure of scrolling my timeline, you will know that my opinions are...plentiful.
Going against the grain is my lifeblood. It keeps my dopamine receptors busy and provides the fuel to keep searching the sports realm for new and/or different information.
It's only right that I share some of these takes with the readers at RotoBaller, so here are my Hot Takes (taeks) for the 2021 fantasy football season. Enjoy!
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Joe Burrow finishes outside the top-20 QBs, outscored by Sam Darnold.
Before pitchforks and torches are pulled, hear this out. Yes, a rookie Burrow outscored Darnold by 5.68 PPG in 2020 but only one of these QBs had their knee eviscerated prior to the season's end. Burrow not only tore his ACL but MCL as well and there are fears of capsular damage but this is not the place to speculate there.
Burrow's game is not necessarily predicated on athleticism nor his fantasy production via rushing but even a slight hit to his mobility is a ding to his overall value because he is not the most physically gifted QB. Burrow's game is composed of timing, accuracy, and ability to escape the pocket and make off-platform throws.
There are already reports of struggles early on in camp and this may seem foolish to consider with a month until the 2021 season kicks off but the warning signs are worth noting. If Burrow is uncomfortable in the pocket, he will be taking more sacks and throwing more picks. Also, that will throw off his timing and accuracy as well. For a small-armed QB, none of this is ideal.
Darnold, on the other hand, is as athletic as ever and exited one of the worst offensive environments in the NFL. Moving from little receiving or even rushing talent to a top-eight skill room and one of the league's most ingenious offensive coordinators is certainly a plus. He might not be a great QB or even average but fantasy value can be ripped from bad QBs in great offenses as long as they lean on their talented receivers and aren't bad enough to get benched (Blake Bortles had a 35 passing touchdown season lol).
Other than passing providing fantasy value, consider that Joe Burrow rushed for 142 yards and three scores on 37 attempts in 10 games last season. We can safely presume he will not be rushing as often or as efficiently this year. Darnold rushed for 217 yards and two scores on 37 attempts in 12 games and could be even better this season. He will maintain a significant advantage in this department and while that is not enough to push him over, just playing with more talent and having easier decisions to make could cause a major shift.
Darnold > Burrow in 2021. Put it in ink.
None of the Bengals' WRs finish as a WR2 or better
This carries over from the previous Burrow take and may seem even crazier given the talent of Cincinnati's trio. It is a sort of chicken and the egg situation with fantasy value where if the QB is broken, the WRs can't produce up to their expectations. Not that incredibly gifted WRs can't make it work on their own (see: DeAndre Hopkins prior to Deshaun Watson) but when there is a non-consolidated target share, brutal OL, and potentially a broken QB, you have a recipe for disaster.
Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the best WRs on this roster and are getting drafted as such. No matter what platform is utilized, these two are roughly back-to-back (Chase first) as back-end WR2s via ADP. Outside of an injury to them or Tyler Boyd, their draft position is their ceiling for the 2021 season.
As the saying goes, "Rising tides lift all boats" but when there's a hole at the bottom, what benefit is there? Can Burrow even game manage if worst comes to worst and he's next to useless? If that's the case, the overall ceiling of the offense is lowered significantly. Also, would the team allow Burrow to repeat the insane pass rate of 2020?
40 passes per game is not inherently a bad thing but the team may opt for fewer hits to their franchise QB. Maybe the passes are called, but as extensions to the run game as screens, those may well go to Joe Mixon. Also, if the defense keeps opposing teams honest enough, they may just play through their $48 million dollar RB who is the lone wolf sans Giovani Bernard.
Avoid the top two receivers on Cincinnati and buy Mixon instead. Tyler Boyd is palatable as well at his price, especially if it dips. Boyd outscored Higgins in PPG last season and could be a pseudo-dump off if the perimeter WRs are tough to target.
DeVante Parker finishes as Miami's WR1
DeVante Parker gets a bad rap. His career has been quite tumultuous with injuries and underperformances but he finally showed life in 2019 with a high-end WR2 season, averaging 15.4 PPG and finishing as the WR11 overall! Parker displayed his upside in this season and then faceplanted as WR39 last season while the QB switcharoo came game-to-game and Miami's offense failed to hit any semblance of rhythm.
Now, heading into the 2021 season, the Dolphins have added competition to the WR room that has created even more Parker skeptics. They signed former first-round pick Will Fuller via free agency and drafted Alabama dynamo Jaylen Waddle sixth-overall.
While both WRs are undoubtedly talented, Will Fuller is not only suspended for Week 1, but he has sustained a foot injury in the preseason and has hardly practiced. Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle fractured his ankle in October 2020 and may not be fully comfortable or explosive in 2021.
Parker is in his prime at age 28 with 231 targets in 30 games over the past two seasons. He has the build of a WR1 and a fantasy finish as one. While contested catches are his calling card, the presence of the speedsters Waddle and Fuller should open up the field like he's never seen.
Derrick Henry catches at least 30 passes
First off, Derrick Henry's targets have incrementally increased in each season since entering the NFL.
While he may not have cracked even 20 catches yet, he has been close with 19 just last year. Despite Henry's limitations as a receiver, the team has him on the field so much that they are forced to target him. He had a significant dip in catch rate and yards per target in 2020, which come off as aberrations relative to his career averages.
The biggest reason for my optimism on Henry's passing game involvement is the presence of Julio Jones and the added gravity for the Tennessee offense. Jones will command significant attention opposite fellow alpha WR A.J. Brown and create spacing that will allow Henry and other pass-catchers to take advantage of. These soft spots in the defense will be taken advantage of because passes have to go somewhere beyond the top two targets.
While Corey Davis--a talented WR in his own right--is upgraded with Julio, Jonnu Smith, their TE1 last season, has not properly been replaced. Anthony Firkser will take on a larger role in the passing game but we should project Henry to as well. He can potentially hit the 40 target mark, further solidify his floor, and keep his ceiling around RB2 overall.
Bryan Edwards leads Raiders’ WRs in scoring
Is he a Dragon Ball Z fused concoction of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss? No. However, Bryan Edwards is talented and the training camp hype going his way is somewhat legitimate. Edwards is constantly propped up by his extremely early (17.8 years old) breakout age (a threshold metric for when a WR took a certain % of his college team's targets/TDs/yards in a particular season).
While this is certainly not a bad thing, breaking out is only part of the story. Edwards has the stature of a traditional alpha perimeter WR which is still a sought-after archetype for modern NFL teams and especially a Raiders offense that is desperate for more than just fine production. He was extremely productive throughout his time in South Carolina as a usage monster who produced nearly 50% of UofSC's WR stats.
Edwards provides a glimmer of hope for them which is why he was selected on Day 2 of the 2020 draft. He would have been drafted earlier had he not suffered a broken foot while training and being prevented from pre-draft drill participation. The injury history is long with Edwards but luckily the issues are not compounding like soft tissue injuries.
While Henry Ruggs III was drafted earlier and more productive as a rookie (though neither were very productive in general), Ruggs III is not the type of receiver Edwards is. Ruggs III's presence provides value in keeping defenses honest but he can become a decoy quite easily. Edwards is the chain-mover, red-zone target who can become a major fantasy boon if health and Jon Gruden's ego don't get in the way.
Gruden has whispered his frustration with backlash from the Ruggs III pick and intends to prove dissenters wrong. Whether that comes to fruition or lasts very long is something to wait and see but the facts at hand display Edwards as the most talented WR in the room and far more valuable for fantasy.
Michael Carter does not finish as Jets’ RB1
It is absurd to see a Day 3 RB jump into the top-100 of ADP as a rookie. Michael Carter isn't bad per se but what exactly warrants this assumption that he is not only better than players drafted behind him (Jarvis Landry, Marquise Brown, Ronald Jones + more) but better than Tevin Coleman? Coleman has his knocks by all means. Lower body injuries early in the season have severely limited him over the past two years. However, Coleman has familiarity within OC Mike LaFleur's system and is going nearly 100 picks after Carter.
The only reason Carter is getting drafted so early is that he hasn't disappointed us *yet*. Using that and the RB room as a whole as reasons to draft him early are terrible arguments. Yes, his agility profiles as elite, and his college efficiency speaks for itself but he never cracked 200 touches there and didn't see triple-digits until his junior season. There should be legitimate questions as to what his rookie workload will be and whether he can hold up if profusely fed.
The best Jets RB may just be no Jets RB.
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