High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 9)

October 30, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 9 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're halfway through the fantasy football season, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The Rams and Vikings have two running backs that dominate the backfield opportunities. That's especially true inside the 10-yard line, with Kyren Williams rushing three times and Aaron Jones at two in Week 8. Jones garnered an 86.4 percent rush share, with Williams at 71.9 percent. Meanwhile, Williams bests Jones in targets (Seven vs. two) and target share (20.6 percent vs. eight percent).

The visual below shows the Week 8 leaders sorted by rush yards inside the 10.

Williams continues to be one of the league leaders in rush attempts inside the 10, accounting for 84.6 percent of the team's carries inside the five. Besides Najee Harris, Jones has been one of two rushers garnering 10 or more carries inside the 10 with only one touchdown near the goal line.  

We had four rushers with four or more carries inside the 10 in Week 8, and only one didn't score a touchdown. That's Alexander Mattison, who had four carries for negative four yards.

Meanwhile, Kareem Hunt maintained his role as the primary Chiefs' running back, garnering 21 carries and accounting for 72.4 percent of the team's rush attempts. Unfortunately, Hunt was inefficient, with 59 rushing yards, but the high-value touches boosted his expected fantasy points to 19.5. Besides Hunt's inefficiencies, we can't complain about the opportunities and role.

Raheem Mostert stole goal-line rushes from De'Von Achane. Mostert saw five of his nine carries inside the 10, scoring on two. That's likely unsustainable for Mostert, though he shared the backfield rush share (36 percent) with Achane (40 percent).

Achane showed us the high-end fantasy-friendly role via the passing game, finishing second on the team in targets (eight) and target share (21.1 percent) with Tua Tagovailoa back. Expect some touchdown regression in favor of Achane.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders sorted by rush attempts inside the 10.

Jalen Hurts, and the tush push highlighted the Eagles' rushing game against the Bengals. Hurts scored three times on four carries inside the 10, accounting for 60 percent of the team attempts inside the five in Week 8. Here's a wild stat comparing Hurts and Saquon Barkley.

Hurts has 12 carries inside the 10 with seven touchdowns (58.3 percent) compared to Barkley, garnering 13 attempts with three scores (39.1 percent). Furthermore, Hurts has 11 carries inside the five with six touchdowns, and Barkley has nine carries with three scores. Inside the one-yard line, Hurts has nine rush attempts with all six scores, and Barkley's carries drop to two with zero touchdowns.

Let's hope Hurts doesn't keep stealing short-yardage and high-value rush attempts for scores from Barkley. Or maybe regression hits, and Barkley scores more inside the five and 10-yard line since Hurts takes nearly all within one yard of the goal line. 

I use @FantasyPtsData a ton in my weekly article & fantasy lineup research. I love that the team defense data shows us the adjusted yards before contact & pass rate over expected for the given defense.

It can show us which teams can be a pass or run funnel & dive deeper. pic.twitter.com/328z7tLEgb

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 25, 2024

The Bills projected as a run funnel defense, allowing the seventh-most adjusted yards before contact while running two-high safety coverage at the fourth-highest rate. We can't blame the rainy weather since James Cook exploded for 111 rushing yards and two scores. However, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, who accounted for 16 combined rushing yards on 12 attempts, feel like an outlier performance.

The theme of Week 8 seems to be rushing regression since Walker and Charbonnet had three carries each inside the ten, though Charbonnet was the only one who scored.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Welcome back to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua! Kupp had two targets inside the 10 in Week 8, scoring on one of them. Meanwhile, Nacua had zero targets inside the 10 against the Vikings yet led the team with 106 receiving yards on nine targets (26.5 percent) compared to Kupp at 51 on eight opportunities (23.5 percent).

The visual below shows the receiving leaders sorted by targets inside the 10 in Week 8.

Nacua edged Kupp in first-read target share in Week 8, with Nacua at 35 percent compared to Kupp at 30 percent. Having Kupp and Nacua healthy is positive for the Rams' offense because it boosts the already consolidated offense, which we appreciate for fantasy purposes.

We had 12 pass catchers with two or more targets inside the 10, including a few notable players like Michael Wilson, Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, and Cade Otton.

Wilson has four games with fewer than five targets and four with more than a handful. Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. headlined the Cardinals' offense, but Wilson showed up somewhat in Week 8 against the Dolphins. It's probably noisy while James Conner is healthy, but Harrison has four targets inside the 10, with Wilson at three.

#Bills rookie WR Keon Coleman is starting to really settle in. Filthy grab for the TD. pic.twitter.com/G1Bi9W9mgQ https://t.co/CsAR63pch3

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 27, 2024

Admittedly, Coleman hasn't garnered my additional attention, but he had an explosive reception and a contested catch for a score after a pass breakup by Tariq Woolen. The Bills would prefer to run the ball near the endzone, with Cook having nine carries and Josh Allen with six inside the 10 on the season.

For context, Coleman leads the Bills with four targets inside the 10, with Dalton Kincaid at three. Regardless of Coleman's high-value targets in Week 8, he ranked 11th in expected fantasy points, 31st in first-read target share, and 15th in air yards share. From Weeks 1-7, Coleman ranked 87th in expected fantasy points, which accounts for usage and possibly a positive trend.

I wrote about Ladd McConkey being a WR/CB matchup upgrade in Week 8 and a potential breakout game @RotoBallerNFL.

McConkey was impressive against the Saints, making contested catches & showing off the YAC. Wish I would’ve started him in one lineup over Jayden Reed or Deebo… https://t.co/7tJcZrEYbG pic.twitter.com/PArToVoFJJ

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 28, 2024

McConkey had a juicy matchup, which we covered in the Week 8 WR/CB matchup column. The Saints ran the 10th-highest most man coverage, and McConkey crushed against man. Add in the Chargers' throwing more off in neutral game scripts, and we saw an increase in pass volume.

Though the Chargers love establishing the run, McConkey leads the team with six targets inside the ten, with Hayden Hurst in second with two. The buying window for McConkey may have closed.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders sorted by targets inside the 10.

It has to be a typo if Worthy garnered two targets inside the 10-yard line, tying with Travis Kelce in Week 8. Worthy and Kelce scored one touchdown, with the tight end dominating the games on National Tight End Day.

The rookie saw the second-most targets (8) and target share (21.1 percent) on the team behind Kelce. Worthy sneakily ranks 15th in expected fantasy points (16.4), 12th in first-read target share (34.2 percent), and 11th in air yards share (44.3 percent) in Weeks 7-8.

That's much better than Worthy's role in Weeks 1-6, evidenced by ranking 79th in expected fantasy points (8.5), 65th in first-read target share (18.9 percent), and 43rd in air yards share (27.2 percent).

Stock up for Worthy based on the role, even without the high-value targets. That means we'll want to buy into him being more involved in the offense since DeAndre Hopkins will complement and not eat into Worthy's role and usage.

Cade Otton time. #NationalTightEndsDay

📺: #ATLvsTB on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/UKxppwoiSk

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

The question heading into Week 8 surrounded which Buccaneers receiver would benefit from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injured. It's only one week, but it looked murky. Otton led the team in targets (10) and target share (20 percent), with the running backs involved often. Bucky Irving had seven targets (14 percent target share), with Rachaad White at six (12 percent target share).

Though Jalen McMillan had seven targets (14 percent), Otton had a team-high 30.3 percent first-read target share. Maybe it's a one-week blip, but Otton leading the team in raw targets, first-read opportunities, and endzone looks in Week 8 may be a trend without Evans and Godwin. On the season, Otton ranks ninth in expected fantasy points, indicating TE1 usage.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

Once again, the leaders in targets and target share on third and fourth downs highlight fun names. That includes Mike Gesicki (6), Malik Nabers (6),  Zay Flowers (5), Otton (5), Cedric Tillman (5), Calvin Ridley (5), Tyreek Hill (4), and several others tied with four.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders on third and fourth downs sorted by targets (minimum three or more) in Week 8.

With Tee Higgins injured, Joe Burrow looked toward Gesicki six times on third and fourth downs, accounting for 75 percent of his eight targets in Week 8. Gesicki led the Bengals in receiving yards yet trailed Ja'Marr Chase in receptions (nine) and targets (11). Before Week 8, Gesicki had four consecutive games with three or fewer targets, so it's likely noisy.

Jameis finds Cedric Tillman to retake the lead!

📺: #BALvsCLE on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/sjSIvER5b5

— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2024

Tillman might've won weeks for fantasy managers, with the fourth-most PPR (28.9). Thank you, Jameis Winston, for boosting up the Browns' offense. However, we'll note Tillman finished second on the team in first-read target share (23.5 percent) behind Elijah Moore (29.4 percent). Moore notably had four targets on third and fourth downs, showing Winston trusted his receivers in crucial situations.

In 56 dropbacks, Winston ranks 12th in completion rate over expected (3.4 percent) and 32nd in catchable target rate (71.7 percent). Though Deshaun Watson's catchable target rate bested Winston at 75.9 percent (No. 20), Watson ranked 29th with a zero percentage completion rate over expected.

The visual below shows the quarterback leaders in several metrics, sorted by the players with the highest first-read pass attempts in Weeks 1-8, highlighting Winston.

The other main difference with Winston involves his 2.37 time to throw compared to Watson at 2.76. Sometimes, mobile quarterbacks like Watson can have a longer time to throw, so there's some noise. However, when we pair time to throw with first reads, Winston threw toward his first read 81.1 percent of the time compared to Watson at 69.4 percent.

The visual below shows the wide receivers and tight ends with the worst fantasy points over expected with a minimum of 25 routes run. This list shows us potential regression candidates or trade targets.

Ridley looked like a buy-low because he was one of the players with a drastic difference in expected versus actual fantasy points. Before Week 8, Ridley ranked 197th in fantasy points over expected and No. 48 in expected fantasy points. In Week 8, Ridley had the second-highest expected fantasy points behind CeeDee Lamb, teasing us at his high-end upside.

The Titans project to have the best strength of schedule for wide receivers, so fantasy managers might want to hold or buy high if you're looking to roll the dice with a team headed by Mason Rudolph and Will Levis.

We'll close out with the season-long receiving leaders in target share on third and fourth downs with a minimum of five targets.

We saw Ridley and Josh Downs explode in Week 8. Keenan Allen notably has a high target share on third and fourth downs, but the raw targets rank middle of the pack. Allen ranks second on the Bears in expected fantasy points among their receivers behind D.J. Moore.

The Bears have the fifth-best strength of schedule for receivers, so maybe there's a buying opportunity for Allen or Rome Odunze since they've seen their value sink in recent weeks. However, the Bears don't have a consolidated passing offense, with Moore and Allen garnering a 25 percent target share and Odunze at 17 percent on a team tied for 21st in neutral script pass rate (51 percent).

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