High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 7)

October 17, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 7 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series High-Value Touches and Opportunities for Week 7 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. 

With passing numbers down, we'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line, but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The Seahawks offense struggled against the 49ers, but Kenneth Walker III delivered again. Walker had two carries inside the 10-yard line, scoring on one of them. His rushing touchdown saved the day on the ground, though he rocked a 15.4 percent target share in Week 6.

For context, Walker had two games with a target share of 15 percent or higher (13.3 percent). He already matched his 2023 total, with two games with a 15 percent target share or more (50 percent) in 2024. With high efficiency, Walker boasts the sixth-best expected points per game (EP/G). That's evident by the seventh-best fantasy points over expected (FPOE/G). That's the profile of a potential week winner, and Walker embodies that.

There were two Falcons running backs in the Week 6 leaders in rushes inside the 10-yard line. Tyler Allgeier had four and Bijan Robinson had three, with Allgeier scoring on one and Robinson landing in the end zone twice.

Their rushes inside the 10 indicate the split rushing workload. That's evident in Robinson's 39.5 percent rush share compared to Allgeier at 47.4 percent, with Robinson edging Allgeier in target share (13.8 percent vs. 3.4 percent) in Week 6.

It's likely related to the game script since Robinson garnered a 62 percent rush share in Weeks 1-5 compared to Allgeier at 30.6 percent, with a similar gap in target shares. After some concern about Robinson heading into Week 6, he and Allgeier took advantage of a weak Panthers run defense.

Besides Robinson, Derrick Henry was the only other running back with two or more carries, who scored on two. Among rushers with five carries inside the 10, Henry ranks fifth in the percentage of the team rushes inside the five at 91.7 percent. Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner, Tony Pollard, and Breece Hall had 100 percent of their team's rushes inside the five.

J.K. Dobbins barely missed the cutoff with four carries inside the 10-yard line, yet 100 percent of the team rushes inside the five. Henry keeps scoring on 42.9 percent of his carries inside the 10, a ridiculously high rate. We chase volume and efficiency, with potential outliers like Henry in fantasy football.

The visual below shows the leaders in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line in 2024.

Justin Fields had four carries inside the 10, scoring on two. Meanwhile, Najee Harris had two carries inside the 10 yet didn't score on those touches. Fields leads all quarterbacks with carries inside the 10 in 2024 at 11, with Jayden Daniels at seven. Lamar Jackson and Daniel Jones have five each, and the only other quarterbacks who made the list of rushing attempt leaders inside the 10 from Weeks 1-6. If Fields keeps up this pace, he'll reach 10+ rushing touchdowns.

On Monday, Ray Davis filled in for James Cook, who was ruled out Monday afternoon. Davis garnered three carries inside the 10-yard line and soaked up a hefty workload. For context, Cook has seven carries inside the 10-yard line, with a 70 percent rush share and 10.2 percent target share in Weeks 1-5. That suggests Davis slid into Cook's role and succeeded.

Davis ranked 10th in rush share (60.6 percent) and 17th in target share (13 percent). He rocked an elite 30 percent rate of forced missed tackles, with 2.85 yards after contact per attempt, against the Jets, who rank ninth in adjusted yards before contact, meaning they're a stout run defense.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The Seahawks had a trio of receivers with two targets inside the 10 in Week 6 against the 49ers, including Tyler Lockett (three), DK Metcalf (two), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (two). Lockett was the only one to score a receiving touchdown, and that's likely due to the Seahawks trailing and playing with a negative game script.

The Seahawks rock the highest pass rate (69 percent), with the second-fastest pace (23.4 seconds per snap). That indicates the passing volume will favor Seahawks pass-catchers, especially when there's the potential to play from behind.

Though the Seahawks' pass-catcher consistency might be frustrating beyond Metcalf and Walker, we'll have boom games from Smith-Njigba and Lockett given the high-end passing volume.

On the other side, George Kittle caught two of six targets inside the 10-yard line, scoring touchdowns on both. Kittle leads the 49ers in targets inside the 10, giving him five on the season. His uber-efficient production and role have been evident via the best EP/G and second-best FPOE/G.

The visual below shows the leaders in targets inside the 10-yard line in Week 6.

The other receivers with two targets inside the 10 include DJ Moore, Joe Mixon, Gabe Davis, Jalen Brooks, Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, Drake London, and Kristian Wilkerson. Brooks, Davis, and Wilkerson might be a noisy group. That's especially true considering Brooks averages a 6 percent first-read target share and 0.82 yards per route run, with Wilkerson slightly better (8 percent first-read target share and 1.20 yards per route run).

Davis is more notable, but he had been third on the team in target share at 16 percent behind Brian Thomas Jr. (21.8 percent) and Christian Kirk (21.2 percent) in Weeks 1-5. With Evan Engram back in Week 6, Davis had the second-highest target share at 22.9 percent behind Engram (28.6 percent), with Kirk and Thomas tied at 17.1 percent.

Since Trevor Lawrence ranks 30th in pass rate over expected at -1.92 percent and 27th in off-target rate at 18.8 percent, it's best to be weary about Davis in the Jaguars offense with their top three pass-catchers healthy.

#Bears Caleb Williams averaged 7 attempts per touchdown in Week 6 against the Jaguars. He led the league in Week 6, with Jordan Love & Jared Goff behind at 8 attempts per touchdown.

For context, Williams ranked 30th with 34 attempts per TD in Weeks 1-5 out of 36 QBs. pic.twitter.com/9uXoG5n6jR

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) October 15, 2024

There were two Bears receivers in Moore and Allen with two targets inside the 10, with Caleb Williams and the offense rolling against the softer Jaguars defense. Williams led Week 6 in the fewest attempts per touchdown (seven) ahead of Jordan Love and Jared Goff tied at eight. For context, Williams ranked 30th with 34 attempts per touchdown in Weeks 1-5 out of 36 qualified quarterbacks. Expect something in between for Williams and the Bears receivers.

McLaurin remains Daniels' top pass-catching option, though the Commanders tend to run near the goal line. He leads the team in first-read target share at 29.6 percent, with Zach Ertz having the second-highest average at 16.8 percent. McLaurin ranks 12th in target share (25.9 percent) and first in air yards share (50.3 percent). That's WR1-type opportunity shares, making him an early season value pick.

Below are the leaders in targets inside the 10-yard line in 2024.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

The Week 6 leaders in targets on third and fourth downs provide a fun list. Besides the regulars, Tank Dell, Josh Downs, Davis, David Njoku, Demario Douglas, Bub Means, Darius Slayton, and Ladd McConkey were notable. Dell had the 12th-highest target share at 29 percent in Week 6, with Dalton Schultz at 25.8 percent (No. 20). Stefon Diggs came in close behind Schultz at 22.6 percent in Week 6. For context, Dell had a brutal 11.5 percent target share in Weeks 1-5 with Nico Collins healthy.

The visual below shows the target leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 6.

Downs has been outperforming and outearning opportunities over the past two weeks with Joe Flacco as the primary quarterback. He ranks 24th in target share (25.9 percent) and 16th in PPR/G (17.7) in Weeks 5-6. Downs bested Michael Pittman Jr. in target share (16 percent) and PPR/G (13.6) over the past two games. Stock up for Downs as a WR3 with upside.

With Davis popping up on the Week 6 leaders in targets on third and fourth downs, plus opportunities inside the 10, we'll want to keep tabs on it. That suggests Lawrence looked toward Davis near the end zone and in crucial situations. Unfortunately, the opportunities will be limited and we can't expect him to score a touchdown weekly.

Let's touch on Means and Douglas. In Weeks 5-6, Douglas earned a massive 29.5 percent target share, leading the Patriots, with Ja'Lynn Polk (16.4 percent) and Hunter Henry (14.8 percent) behind Douglas. Drake Maye looked toward Douglas as his first read 33.3 percent of the time in Week 6. For context, Kayshon Boutte had a 14.3 percent first-read target share, and Kendrick Bourne was at 9.5 percent in Week 6.

The chart below shows the season-long leaders in targets on third and fourth downs.

Douglas is the discount version of Wan'Dale Robinson, with a theoretical quarterback upgrade with Maye. Speaking of Robinson, he leads the league in targets on third and fourth downs, with an eight-point lead on Wilson. 

It's a one-game sample, but Maye posted a 3.8 percent completion rate over expected and a 4.84 adjusted yards per attempt in Week 6. In Weeks 1-5, Jacoby Brissett had a -2.0 percent completion rate over expected (No. 30) and 3.84 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 33).

Means might be earning additional playing time in Week 7 on Thursday night with Chris Olave suffering a concussion and Rashid Shaheed dealing with a knee injury. In Week 6, Means had a solid 26.9 percent first-read target share while earning four targets on third and fourth downs. He bested Shaheed in first-read target share (23.1 percent) and third- and fourth-down opportunities (one).

Means profiled similarly to Deon Cain, Davis, Miles Boykin, and Equanimeous St. Brown based on collegiate production, size, speed, and draft capital. Collins was a comparison, but that's an outlier outcome with a drastic difference in draft capital.

Means could volume his way to production in Week 7 against the Broncos, especially with Patrick Surtain II dealing with a concussion and their secondary banged up. He will be a waiver-wire option mostly for deep leaguers, but he possesses the athleticism to make splash plays.

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