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Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 4 of 2024.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series High-Value Touches and Opportunities for Week 4 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers.
With passing numbers down, we'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line, but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations.
We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.
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High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Breece Hall garnered two carries inside the 10-yard line, scoring a touchdown on one. Though Braelon Allen ate into Hall's workload over the past two weeks, Hall still garners a near-elite profile as a rusher and receiver. Hall ranks fifth in expected points per game (EP/G), accounting for a player's opportunities and high-value touches through three games.
Some mentioned that Allen won't be as involved in a closer game since the Jets led the Patriots for most of the Thursday night contest. That led me to look at the Jets' backfield splits when leading, trailing, or in a tie game.
The Jets lean more on Hall in crucial situations when they're trailing or tied, evidenced by his route percentage and target share increasing compared to when they have a lead. Regardless, Allen looks like a priority bench stash because of his offensive involvement and high EP/G scenario if Hall misses time. Be careful selling Allen because he could be a week-winner down the stretch.
Jordan Mason and Kyren Williams continue dominating the backfield touches, especially inside the 10-yard line. They each had four rushes inside the 10, with Williams scoring on two while Mason didn't score.
Williams ranks second in expected fantasy points per game behind De'Von Achane, with Mason at No. 10 through three weeks. We'll want to hold onto Blake Corum and Isaac Guerendo because there's a chance they will garner 75 percent of the team's backfield opportunities if Mason or Williams misses time.
Though Anthony Richardson struggled as a passer against the Bears, Jonathan Taylor crushed it, with four carries inside the 10, scoring on one. Taylor has been making explosive plays on the ground, evidenced by the highest explosive run rate at 11.8 percent among rushers with 25 carries.
Richardson ranks 28th in adjusted yards per attempt at 4.45 ahead of Jacoby Brissett (4.06), with the third-worst completion rate over expected (CPOE) at -7.9 percent among 35 qualified quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks. If Richardson continues to be inefficient as a passer, the Colts may lean on Taylor like they have early in the season.
All eyes were on Carson Steele on "Sunday Night Football," not Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy. Kidding aside, Steele had a serviceable role as a rusher, accounting for 51.5 percent of the team's rush attempts and a 5.1 percent target share. Three of Steele's 17 carries came inside the 10, showing the Chiefs' willingness to rely on him as a rusher in the high-value parts of the field.
The visual below shows the leaders in rush attempts inside the 10 through Weeks 1-3.
For context, Steele leads the Chiefs with five rushes inside the 10, with Isiah Pacheco garnering four through three weeks. The Chiefs have one of the worst running back matchups over the next four games against the Chargers, Saints, 49ers, and Raiders, with a bye week between the Saints and 49ers.
It might be a volume-based play for Steele, especially if they trust him with the high-value rushing attempts, meaning he'll give us RB2 value with the chance at a rushing touchdown.
Update/edit: FOUR running backs had 50% or more of the team's rush attempts & a target share of 15% or higher in Week 3 before Monday night.
Those running backs include:
-JK Dobbins (75% Rush% & 15.8% Target%)
-Aaron Jones (67.9% Rush% & 24% Target%)
-De'Von Achane (61.1% Rush%… https://t.co/cLjrab3G2g— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 24, 2024
Four running backs had a 50 percent rush share and a target share of 15 percent or higher in Week 3. That list includes J.K. Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Achane, and Najee Harris.
Jones garnered the highest running back target share in Week 3 at 24 percent. That's a near-elite workload for a running back, especially in PPR formats. If Jones earns 2-3 high-value rushes per game, plus the healthy rush and target share, we might have more week-winning performances from him.
Practice what you preach. Unfortunately, I didn't do that much by drafting Zach Charbonnet as one of the undervalued running backs. Charbonnet scored on both of his carries inside the 10 in Week 3. Over the past two games, Charbonnet ranks fifth in fantasy points, second in rush share (76.2 percent), 15th in running back target share, and 13th in carries inside the 10, while scoring on all three.
While there's a chance Charbonnet goes back to a backup role, we could envision him eating into Kenneth Walker III's workload similar to the duo of Hall and Allen. We don't expect running backs to score on all of their high-value rush attempts, but Charbonnet's workload is what we dream about for a high-end backup.
Two quarterbacks popped in Week 3, including Justin Fields and Daniel Jones having three rush attempts inside the 10. Fields scored on one of his attempts, and interestingly garnered all of the Steelers' carries inside the five against the Chargers. It's unlikely that continues with Fields and Jones, but we know both can provide additional upside as rushers.
High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Though Garrett Wilson scored a touchdown on one of his two targets inside the 10, the buying window may still be open. That's especially true because the Jets face the Broncos in Week 4, the Vikings in Week 5, the Bills in Week 6, the Steelers in Week 7, and the Patriots in Week 8.
Besides Hall, Wilson is one of the most talented receivers in the league. Furthermore, Aaron Rodgers mentioned opposing defenses have been using Cover 2, impacting their involvement in targeting Wilson. That likely suggests teams have been adjusting their coverage toward Wilson's side of the field, and rightfully so.
Most teams tend to run when they're inside the 10-yard line, so it's notable when receivers and pass-catchers garner 2-3 or more targets. Nico Collins has become a WR1, with the discussion of being drafted that way if we drafted today. Collins had four of his 10 targets come inside the 10. For context, Collins had zero targets inside the 10-yard line before Week 3.
Meanwhile, Diontae Johnson has tied with Malik Nabers for the league-high five targets inside the 10. It's likely not a coincidence that Johnson's boom game came with Andy Dalton at quarterback, earning the fourth-most targets in his career at 14.
Speaking of Nabers, he's showing us fantasy managers should've drafted him over Marvin Harrison Jr. through the early sample. Nabers leads all receivers in target share (37.8 percent) and ranks second in air yards share (52.5 percent), trailing only Terry McLaurin through three weeks. Daniel Jones and the Giants' offensive game plan involves feeding Nabers targets at all areas of the field while ranking second in first-read target share (47.9 percent).
Nabers is having a historic start to his career, with the potential to surpass Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the best rookie seasons among wide receivers since 2010. The closest comparisons using the RotoViz Screener can be seen below, with many becoming or finishing as a WR1 multiple times in their career.
After six targets in Weeks 1-2, Cole Kmet had 11 in Week 3. Kmet's snap and route rate increased from Weeks 1-2 compared to Week 3. The passing volume increased, as Caleb Williams threw 52 attempts against the Colts after 63 combined in the first two weeks. Kmet had a brutal 39.5 percent route rate and a 4.8 percent first-read target share in Weeks 1-2.
However, Kmet's usage and involvement improved in Week 3, with a 57.9 route participation and a 20.6 percent first-read target share. Kmet trailed DJ Moore and Rome Odunze with an identical first-read target share (26.5 percent) in Week 3. It might be fluky to see Kmet's slightly improved involvement, targets, and high-value receiving opportunities, especially when Keenan Allen returns.
Keep tabs on this situation because the Bears have tons of talent, but Williams hasn't helped his cause with 2.98 adjusted yards per attempt (No. 34) and -3.8 percent CPOE (No. 30) out of 35 qualified quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks.
Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities
The best leaderboards have a mix of high-end players and ones that raise eyebrows. That's the case with Week 3 receiving leaders by target share on third and fourth downs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jauan Jennings tied for the highest target share on third and fourth downs in Week 3 at 66.7 percent. It's worth noting the sample of two targets for Jennings isn't significant, but that doesn't discount his massive performance.
Jennings ranked eighth with a 42.9 percent first-read target share against the Rams, a team-high ahead of Brandon Aiyuk at 38.1 percent in Week 3. Though Jennings likely isn't available on waivers in most leagues, he probably won some matchups in Week 3, with a historic 46.5 fantasy point game.
George Pickens is the focus of the Steelers' passing offense, which we worried about with Arthur Smith as offensive coordinator. Pickens garnered a 50 percent target share on third and fourth downs, showing Justin Fields trusts him in crucial situations.
He remains the first read for Fields, targeting him 31.4 percent of the time. Pickens has underperformed his expected fantasy points (12.9) per game by over two points, making him a buy candidate as a WR3 with upside.
Speaking of breaking records with Jennings, Dallas Goedert had a career-best 170 receiving yards in Week 3 against the Saints. That's partly because the Eagles were without A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith leaving with a concussion. Regardless, that's an elite outcome, with a 30.6 percent target share in Week 3 (No. 15).
GOEDERT GETS 61 YARDS ON 3RD & 16!
📺: #PHIvsNO on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/EBe8TFImy9— NFL (@NFL) September 22, 2024
Goedert had a 36.4 percent target share on third and fourth down, including a crucial conversion on third-and-16, with just over one minute in the game. He caught a short pass and took it for 61 yards down to the 4-yard line, leading to Saquon Barkley's game-winning touchdown.
Goedert earned more usage in the coming games, especially with Smith and Brown likely to miss 1 to 2 weeks. The Eagles have the fifth-best matchup for tight ends over the next four games, including the Buccaneers, then a bye week before the Browns, Giants, and Bengals. With the tight-end position full of injuries and underperformers, Goedert might be one of the better options in the next few weeks.
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