High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 15)

December 11, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 15 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 15 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're in the fantasy football playoffs, hope we survive through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The Packers ranked first in neutral game script rush rate at 55 percent in Weeks 8-14, tying them with the Eagles. They're using the fourth-slowest pace of 30.5 seconds per snap in Weeks 8-14. Josh Jacobs has been the main beneficiary, with the most rushing expected fantasy points in Weeks 8-14 at 14.6 per game.

The visual below shows the team pace data in neutral game scripts sorted by rush rate.

Jacobs saw five of his 18 rush attempts inside the 10 in Week 14, scoring all three touchdowns. In previous high-value touch and opportunity articles, we discussed how touchdown regression should shift in Jacobs' favor based on his usage and high-value rush attempts.

Heading into Week 13, Jacobs had 20 rush attempts and six touchdowns inside the 10. In Weeks 13-14, Jacobs garnered 11 rush attempts inside the 10, scoring four touchdowns on those rushes. That makes Jacobs and David Montgomery the only two running backs with 30+ carries inside the 10 through Week 14. 

The visual below shows the season-long leaders in rush attempts inside the 10 in Weeks 1-14.

Speaking of Montgomery, he garnered five carries inside the 10, yet only scored on one of them. Jahmyr Gibbs had two rush attempts inside the 10, following the trend of him seeing about half of the team's high-value carries, with 16 in 2024. It was positive to see Gibbs (14.6 percent)) and Montgomery (12.2 percent) finished with a double-digit target share in Week 14. Montgomery saw a season-high in targets and target share, with Gibbs having five or more targets for the first time since Week 6.

De'Von Achane had six carries inside the 10 and -3 rushing yards, though he scored one touchdown. Achane's overall efficiency wasn't great in Week 14 against the Jets, compiling 14 attempts for 24 yards. Fortunately, Achane's receiving volume gives RB1-type usage, evidenced by his 15.5 expected fantasy points (No. 12), with the second-highest receiving EP/G.

The scatter plot below shows the leading running backs in expected points per game, with rushing and receiving EP/G included. The top right quadrant shows players with balanced profiles, with elite usage.

With Kenneth Walker III ruled out, Zach Charbonnet soaked up an elite role and produced the most fantasy points (38.3) at running back in Week 14. Charbonnet rocked a 71 percent rush share and 24.1 percent target share against the Cardinals.

Five of Charbonnet's 22 rush attempts came inside the 10 in Week 14, with one leading to a touchdown. Interestingly, Walker and Charbonnet had similar usages in the 10. Walker has 13 carries inside the 10, scoring on four. Meanwhile, Charbonnet bested him in carries (14) and touchdowns (six). Charbonnet had eight rush attempts inside the 10 in Weeks 2, 3, and 14 without Walker healthy.

The Seahawks like to use Charbonnet near the goal line, especially when Walker isn't in the lineup. It seems unlikely that the Seahawks will split the backfield usage, though some could argue otherwise.

Chuba Hubbard had five carries inside the 10, scoring one touchdown, in Week 14 against the Eagles in a surprisingly competitive game. The Panthers fed Hubbard 26 carries, and unfortunately, Jonathon Brooks tore his ACL after missing most of his rookie season. Hubbard has ranked tied for fifth in rush attempts inside the 10 with 23, handling 81 percent of the team's carries inside the five (No. 7).

The visual below shows the top 20 running backs in expected points per game in Weeks 1-14.

Hubbard ranks 13th in expected fantasy points per game, indicating a high-end workload. With Brooks injured, Hubbard's role should be secure as a volume-based RB2 after some concerns in recent weeks.

When filtering by the leading rushers inside the 10, we include quarterbacks because we know Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and other rushing quarterbacks steal touchdowns near the goal line. Allen scored 51.9 fantasy points in Week 14 after scoring three touchdowns each as a passer and rusher.

According to Stathead, Allen is the first player to throw three touchdowns and rush for three in a game. We had 19 other quarterbacks with three passing touchdowns and two rushing scores in a game.

Unsurprisingly, Allen has thrown three touchdowns and rushed for two for a second time in his career. Allen is one of the few quarterbacks who will post week-winning performances, which we need in the playoffs.

The Eagles faced one of the worst run defenses in the Panthers, allowing the seventh-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Meanwhile, the Eagles' run blocking ranks first in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Saquon Barkley had four of his 20 rush attempts inside the 10 with zero touchdowns in Week 14. Jalen Hurts had one carry inside the 10 in Week 14, with one rushing touchdown.

Though Barkley has 23 rush attempts compared to Hurts at 21 on the season, Hurts scored a league-leading 12 touchdowns, with Barkley scoring three. Though we might think Barkley should see touchdown regression inside the 10, he ranks fourth in rushing back expected points per game while averaging the most fantasy points over expected (6.9). That means Barkley is the most efficient running back in scoring fantasy points over expected and boasts an elite role.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Don't overreact to Tim Patrick, who scored two targets inside the 10 and scored on both. Before Week 14, Patrick had two targets inside the 10, with zero touchdowns. The Lions distributed the ball evenly between six players with five or more targets against the Packers. This reminds us of a college basketball team finding success by having multiple players score instead of 1-2 players carrying the load.

The visual below shows the target leaders inside the 10 in Weeks 1-14, showing potential touchdown regression candidates.

Trey McBride garnered three of his 14 targets inside the 10. None of McBride's targets inside the 10 turned into receptions. Unfortunately, the receiving opportunities inside the 10 have been limited for McBride, with six total on the season, tied with Marvin Harrison Jr. For context, Harrison scored three touchdowns inside the 10 with McBride at zero.

Calvin Ridley and Jordan Addison had two targets inside the 10 in Week 14. Ridley didn't score, but Addison had one of his three touchdowns inside the 10. Ridley had one target inside the 10 before Week 14, with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine leading the team with six in 2024.

The visual below shows the receiving advanced stat leaders sorted by expected fantasy points in Weeks 10-14.

Since Week 10, Ridley ranked 21st in expected fantasy points per game (15.3) with Addison at 23rd (15.1). Addison scored over 4.5 more fantasy points per game versus the expected numbers with Ridley underperforming by over one fantasy point. That shows us how an offensive ecosystem impacts the top options in their respective offenses.

On paper, Ridley and Addison have below-average matchups in the fantasy playoffs. However, they have week-winning performances within their range of outcomes paired with volatility every week.  

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

Adam Thielen led Week 14 with seven targets on third and fourth downs, catching five for first downs. Thielen led the team with 11 targets (32.4 percent), and the second straight with 10+ targets. He has become Bryce Young's favorite option, showing he trusts him in crucial situations.

In Weeks 13-14, Thielen ranks 14th in expected fantasy points per game among all receivers and tight ends. Put any age-related Thielen biases aside because he should feast against the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Buccaneers in Weeks 15-17.

Puka Nacua took over for the Rams. Nacua saw six of his 14 targets on third and fourth downs. It's Nacua's eighth game with 10+ targets in his brief career. Since Week 10, Nacua ranked third in expected fantasy points per game behind Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Nacua earned 43.9 percent of the first-read targets in Weeks 10-14, aligning with the elite target earning.

The visual below shows the season-long targets per route rate leaders on third and fourth downs in Weeks 1-14, with a minimum route rate of 10 percent.

Jameis Winston looked toward David Njoku six times on third and fourth downs. Njoku saw six of his 13 targets in these crucial situations, leading the team in raw targets and target share against the Steelers in Week 14. For context, Njoku ranks 40th in first-read target share while ranking sixth among WR/TE in Weeks 10-14. He continues to push himself into the elite tight-end grouping of McBride, Brock Bowers, and Travis Kelce.

Wan'Dale Robinson had five of his 11 targets on third and fourth downs in Week 14 against the Saints. Unfortunately, the Giants passing offense remains inefficient, with Drew Lock being the quarterback. Robinson leads the league in targets on third and fourth downs on the season, with the 25th-highest targets per route run rate (26 percent) among WR/TE with 25 routes.

Lock fed three pass-catchers with 10+ targets in Week 14, including Robinson, Malik Nabers, and Tyrone Tracy Jr. Nabers and Tracy will be the most reliable options moving forward. However, we use the word reliable lightly with the Giants' backup quarterback issues.

Tyreek Hill had five of his 14 targets (season-high) in Week 14 on third and fourth downs. He surpassed his season best in fantasy points (28.1), with the previous mark in Week 1 at 26 PPR. Since Week 10, Hill averaged 15.8 expected fantasy points (No. 17) compared to Jaylen Waddle at 11.8 (No. 50) and Jonnu Smith with 13.8 (No. 34) among qualified WR/TE.

If Hill's usage sticks throughout the fantasy playoffs, the Dolphins pass-catchers project for above-average matchups, including the Texans, 49ers, and Browns in Week 15-17. Maybe Hill gets hot at the right time to close the season.

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