High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 12)

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities" for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're nearly a month before the fantasy football playoffs begin, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

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High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts had two rushing attempts inside the ten each in Week 11 against the Commanders. Hurts scored one goal-line touchdown on his two carries inside the ten, with Barkley scoring zero. However, Barkley had two explosive touchdown runs of 23 and 36 yards on consecutive drives within 30 seconds.

On the season, Barkley (15) and Hurts (16) rank in the top 12 in carries inside the ten, with Hurts leading the league with 10 touchdowns during these situations compared to Barkley's three. Though fantasy managers shouldn't complain about Barkley's production, with the most fantasy points per game (PPR/G) at the running back position, maybe there's some goal-line touchdown regression in his favor.

Chase Brown had four carries inside the ten, with zero touchdowns. He ranks second among all rushers with 12 carries inside the ten in Weeks 8-11, behind Kareem Hunt (13) and tied with David Montgomery (12).

Brown ranks seventh in team rush share (71.4 percent) inside the five-yard line among rushers with five or more carries inside the ten. Besides Brown's role as a rusher near the goalline, he ranks first in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 8-11, aligning with the rushing and receiving opportunities, seen in the visual above.

The visual below shows the Week 11 leaders in carries inside the ten.

Four rushers had three carries inside the ten, with only Raheem Mostert not scoring a touchdown. The other three include Roschon Johnson, Montgomery, and Josh Jacobs. Jordan Love stole two rush attempts inside the ten and scored one rushing touchdown.

Interestingly, Mostert's only three carries came inside the ten in Week 11. De'Von Achane had the only other team rush attempt inside the ten, scoring a two-yard touchdown. Jaylen Wright took a slight edge in snap share (26.5 percent) and team rush share (19.2 percent) in Week 11 compared to Mostert's 14.7 percent snap share and 11.5 percent rush share.

Achane handles a hefty workload as a rusher (45 percent rush share) and receiver (24 percent target share) in Weeks 9-10. Meanwhile, Mostert (19 percent) and Wright (21 percent) have shared the rush attempts relatively evenly over the past few weeks.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders sorted by carries inside the ten.

There is something about the Lions' offensive ecosystem and allowing their rushers to thrive. In Ben Johnson's first season (2022) as the Lions' offensive coordinator, Jamaal Williams led the league with 17 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs had 23 total rushing touchdowns in 2023.

Montgomery leads all rushers with 25 carries inside the ten, as one of three players with 20 or more, including Derrick Henry (23) and Kyren Williams (21). Montgomery accounts for 60 percent of the team's carries inside the five and Gibbs' 11 carries inside the ten, lead him to the other 40 percent of the carries inside their five-yard line.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

In Zach Ertz's revenge game, he saw two targets inside the ten and scored a five-yard receiving touchdown. When Ertz garners the second-highest target share (21.9 percent), and Austin Ekeler leads the team at 28.1 percent, it's likely not a recipe for success.

The visual below shows the defenses sorted by the lowest adjusted yards before contact allowed in Weeks 6-10, with the differences in each defensive category.

We have to give credit to the Eagles' improved defense. They're allowing the eighth-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt while bringing the sixth-highest pressure rate in Weeks 6-10. The Commanders seem due for passing touchdown regression, ranking 19th in passing touchdown rate (3.8 percent) and first in rushing touchdown rate (5.7 percent) before Week 11.

The visual below shows the Week 11 leaders in targets inside the ten.

Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill tied with three targets inside the ten in Week 11 while scoring one touchdown each. Ja'Marr Chase, Jonnu Smith, Justin Jefferson, and Noah Gray had two targets inside the 10-yard line in Week 11. All scored a touchdown on their targets near the goalline except for Jefferson with Gray hauling in both for a score.

Since Tua Tagovailoa returned in Week 8, Smith had a 23 percent targets per route run rate, 2.21 yards per route, and 10.1 expected fantasy points per game. Smith nearly matched Hill in those numbers, evidenced by Hill's 23 percent target rate, 2.03 yards per route, and 13.2 expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 8-11.

The Dolphins advanced receiving stats since Week 8 can be seen below.

The veteran tight end showed off his yards after the catch skills, with the second-most YAC per reception among wide receivers and tight ends since Week 8. Smith is more than a streaming tight end based on his usage as the Dolphins' third receiving option close behind Hill.

Third and Fourth-Down Opportunities

After the Bears fired Shane Waldron, Rome Odunze led the team in targets (10), six on third and fourth downs against the Packers. For context, Odunze had seven targets on third and fourth downs before Week 11, with DJ Moore garnering a team-high 21 on the season.

Odunze boasted 18.2 expected fantasy points in Week 11 compared to 13.6 combined in Weeks 8-11. Theoretically, it would make sense for the Bears to lean on Odunze more with the other offensive changes under Thomas Brown as their new offensive coordinator. This feels notable with the offensive coordinator for Odunze, so we're buying the Week 11 usage.

The visual below shows the target leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 11.

Without George Kittle for the 49ers in Week 11, Jauan Jennings stepped up with six targets on third and fourth downs, leading to four first downs. Furthermore, Jennings' four receptions on third and fourth downs were contested targets, showing up on film. Jennings ranks eighth in expected fantasy points per game (18.3) since Weeks 8-11, with Deebo Samuel at 13.5.

The visual below shows the 49ers advanced receiving stats in Weeks 8-11.

Jennings' increased usage and reliability, align with the highest first-read target share over the past four weeks (Weeks 8-11), especially in crucial situations. Jennings has been the receiving spark the 49ers need with Brandon Aiyuk injured and Samuel having some health challenges recently. Jennings will have some roller coaster performances, but usage suggests backend WR1 with some upside.

Unfortunately, the stars didn't align with a Cedric Tillman smash game against the Saints. However, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore scored Jameis Winston's two passing touchdowns. Moore had six of his eight targets on third and fourth downs in Week 11 and caught four.

Since Week 8 when Winston took over as the starting quarterback, Jeudy (16.9), Tillman (16), and Moore (16.4) nearly matched each other in expected fantasy points per game. That's similar to the expected fantasy points usage before Week 11, but Tillman's 24.2 PPR/G stood out compared to Moore's (11.2 PPR/G) and Jeudy's (13.6) output.

The visual below shows the Browns' receiving advanced stat leaders in Weeks 8-11.

We saw a similar trend in first-read target shares being relatively even, with Jeudy at 25.7 percent, Tillman at 23.8 percent, and Moore at 22.9 percent. Winston doesn't seem to lock onto a specific receiver and might continue distributing the ball. However, fantasy managers can't complain with the Browns ranking second in neutral game script pass rate at 64 percent behind the Bengals.

Some wondered how Jaxon Smith-Njigba would perform with DK Metcalf returning to the lineup. Smith-Njigba had five of his ten targets on third and fourth downs, plus a team-high in receptions (10) and receiving yards (110). Geno Smith looked toward Metcalf on first-read targets 35 percent of the time, with Smith-Njigba at 30 percent in Week 11.

The visual below shows the advanced receiving data for the Seahawks' receivers in Weeks 8-11, including the one game with Metcalf and Smith-Njigba playing together.

The usage when Metcalf was healthy in Weeks 1-7 wasn't drastically different for him and Smith-Njigba in Week 11. We mainly saw the first-read target shares consolidate toward both, evidenced by Metcalf at 26.6 percent and Smith-Njigba at 22.8 percent in Weeks 1-7. Metcalf had a four-point edge in expected fantasy points compared to Smith-Njigba (19.2 vs. 14.8) before Week 11. The optimist in me thinks Smith-Njigba's usage remains this way for the Seahawks' passing offense.

The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator and Brock Bowers posted the third-highest fantasy point performance before Monday night behind Taysom Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Bowers set records with a massive 41 percent target share, 126 receiving yards, and 24.6 expected fantasy points. For context, Bowers averaged a 22.3 percent target share, 64.4 receiving yards, and 13.9 expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-11.

Bowers ranks second among tight ends in first-read target share at 27.4 percent behind Trey McBride (28.5 percent), and No. 31 when including wide receivers. If Bowers hasn't already, he should be moved into elite tight end status for redraft and dynasty formats on a team ranking 28th in EPA per pass attempt in 2024.

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