Flex Heroes and Zeroes - Week 6 Fantasy Football Picks

October 13, 2018

RotoBaller editor Pierre Camus provides his favorite sleeper picks at QB, RB, WR, and TE, as well as star players to fade for Week 6 of the 2018 NFL season for fantasy football lineup prep.

Just like there is no such thing as an announcer jinx, the same goes for writers or analysts. To call Jay Ajayi a fantasy bust and "Zero" last week, only to see him suffer another devastating injury by tearing his ACL, isn't my fault. It doesn't feel good to see it either, especially since I own him in three different leagues, including the Fish Bowl where my other running back WAS Jerick McKinnon... Even if it's a player that you railed against in the offseason, warned against days earlier, and own nowhere, we should never relish in someone else's failure or personal setbacks, especially when it comes to injury. You'd think this wouldn't happen, but if you've ever been on any form of social media, I can assure you it does.

You can go on all day about how Eli Manning has lost "it," Odell Beckham lacks leadership qualities, Jason Garrett should have been fired years ago or Tom Brady is too damn smug to ever root for (all true). The line gets crossed when fans or analysts openly cheer another player's misfortune. There's no place for that anywhere. So root for your guys and against the bad guys, mock their flamboyant personalities or crappy performance, but remember at the end of the day, it's just a game. Not just the fantasy part either, but football in general. Let's focus on being good people before the rooting interests of our imaginary teams and the rest will take care of itself.

Now, here are my fantasy flex-spot and streamer "heroes" and "zeroes" at each position for Week 6 of the NFL season. These are less obvious players that I believe will perform unexpectedly well, or bigger names that might fare poorly relative to expectations in this week's matchups. To see how our staff feels about all the players you might possibly care about, look no further than our very own RotoBaller consensus weekly rankings. And yes, I realize QBs aren't traditionally considered a "flex" position but there is such a thing as a "superflex" league. It's fun, look it up.

Week 6 Lineup Heroes

QUARTERBACK

C.J. Beathard, San Francisco 49ers

Sometimes being bad in reality makes you better in fantasy. Let me explain. Beathard being the starter in San Fran was never in the plans once Jimmy Garoppolo arrived, but here we are. Now the Niners are coming off three straight losses, two of which were starts by Beathard. In those games, he has turned the ball over seven times. It's not quite six picks in one game shocking but that's a lot of free passes for the other team. As a result, the Niners have allowed 29 and 28 points to mediocre teams and found themselves having to pass to make up for the early deficit. Having Matt Breida leave with an injury in the first half OF EVERY SINGLE GAME WHY CAN'T YOU STAY HEALTHY YOU COULD BE LEADING THE LEAGUE IN RUSHING doesn't help either. So Beathard, once again completely not intentional by Kyle Shanahan, has thrown the ball 91 times in two starts and racked up 647 yards with four touchdowns. Not bad for an almost unowned fantasy player. Far better than "franchise quarterbacks" Marcus Mariota or Ryan Tannehill. As the Niners travel to Green Bay this Monday Night, I can't help but wonder how much time will be on the game clock before Shanahan simply throws his hands up, puts five wideouts on the field every play and says "Hell, just chuck it deep and see what happens." Matt Breida is now Doubtful, in case you were wondering.

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

Is Cook, a player who jumped into the first round of many fantasy drafts by August, really in the flex conversation these days? Yes, as a matter of fact. Between injuries, ineffectiveness, and a lack of interest committing to the run by his OC, Cook hasn't even totaled 100 rushing yards on the season and is averaging 2.7 yards per carry. That's a far cry from the budding superstar we saw at the beginning of 2017. He's been out for two of the first five games this season with a nagging hamstring issue but appears to be on his way to earning a "Probable" designation this week. Just in time, as the Cardinals and their red carpet run defense. Arizona has allowed the most fantasy points (31.2 PPG) and rushing touchdowns (seven) to RBs this season. Those numbers could be even worse if Matt Breida hadn't exited the last game early with an injury, but you know it's bad when you still give up 61 yards to Alfred Morris on fewer than 20 carries. Cook will be overlooked this week since he's been less than 100% and looked terrible at times but this could be a smash spot for him.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Mohamed Sanu, Atlanta Falcons

Start all Falcons this week and any receiver that plays the Bucs the rest of the season. That's pretty much the gist of it, but here are some helpful details to embellish the point. Sanu has been criminally overlooked in spite of his pace to surpass several career highs. His 51.4 yards per game, while not terribly exciting, is solid enough to make him a weekly WR3 in deep leagues. He's caught at least four passes in four of five games and gone over 70 yards each of the last two. It would seem he's benefiting from Calvin Ridley's breakout, not suffering as you might think. Plus, he's actually caught a couple of touchdowns (shots fired, Julio Jones apologists!). Sanu and the Falcons will face the terrible, horrible, awful, no-good Buccaneers secondary that is yielding the second-most fantasy PPG to wideouts. He gets the plussiest of plus matchups in this game against rookie CB M.J. Stewart, who could develop into a solid player over time, but not this week. Start Sanu with confidence and don't look back.

TIGHT END

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams

Cameron Brate is too obvious, as he faces the Falcons' bottom-10 pass defense and gets his favorite QB, Jameis Winston back. Instead, let's go with a player that looked a lot more exciting early in the week when Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks were in the concussion protocol. But as a man of principle and inherit stubbornness, I'm sticking with him as a sleeper pick. Everett could be in play for desperate owner or Olsen owner that should know better (see below). The Broncos continue to have a problem defending the tight end position. They were third-worst last season and sit at fourth-worst this season. It's hard to put trust in a player who has six catches in five games so it's understandable if he remains unowned in most leagues. This is as good a spot as he'll get, however, to prove that he was worth a second-round pick. Tyler Higbee outsnapped Everett 53-16 in Week 5 and it's been an 80-20 split in terms of snaps this season, so Higbee seems like the more obvious choice. Higbee only has a 10-8 target advantage this season, though. The snap advantage comes down to pass protection, especially since the Rams rarely target their tight ends and run the ball more often than most teams. When Everett is on the field, it's to run routes. There's no guarantee of high volume but there is a chance he makes a big play or two. He is a viable TE streamer these days given the state of the position or as a GPP punt play.

Week 6 Lineup Zeroes

QUARTERBACKS

Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers

I've been riding the Rivers train (boat?) all season long but it's about to stop, at least temporarily. The Chargers seem to always be gunning but they're only 15th in passing offense at 289.6 YPG. Just three years ago that would have put them second in the NFL. Times are a changin', yes they are. Rivers is still a solid low-end QB1 most weeks but this week the Chargers travel to the East Coast for an early matchup with the Browns. Yes, I'm implying that this isn't a good thing. If you read my colleague Wai Sallas' wonderful column on the Browns defense being for real, you'll believe too. The Browns are exactly the '85 Bears or even the 2018 Bears but they are holding opposing QBs to a 7/8 TD/INT rate. This was a low-scoring 19-10 matchup last year and could be even more so for the Chargers now that they'll face actual resistance from NFL-quality players. What a difference a year makes.

RUNNING BACKS

Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos

As far as personal performance, Freeman has been fairly impressive in the early part of his rookie year. He is averaging 5.1 yards per carry and has punched in three rushing touchdowns behind a strong offensive line. In another situation, he might be far more valuable, however, as team context has hurt him and will continue to do so. First, Freeman is still splitting time with Phillip Lindsay and Devontae Booker. Freeman technically leads the way with a 34.8% snap share, but Lindsay is at 34.2% and Booker at 31.6%. This is a three-headed monster that won't go away. Despite being the bigger back, Freeman doesn't even lead the team in red zone carries - that 9-8 edge goes to Lindsay. When Freeman is in the game, it's fairly obvious the team plans to give him carries and not targets, so as a result he's faced the most stacked boxes in the league at a 51% clip. Freeman can still be effective, it's just harder. The last problem is his teammates. Case Keenum has turned the ball over and been inconsistent throughout the first five weeks, while the defense has followed suit by allowing huge chunk plays. In comeback mode like last week, Freeman simply won't get much volume since he's not a pass-catcher. In Week 6, the Broncos will have to try stifling the Rams' juggernaut offense. This doesn't bode well for the running game, Freeman in particular.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs

Look up "boom-bust" in the Fantasy Football Urban Dictionary and a picture of Sammy Watkins is likely to appear. He has three games of 12+ fantasy points (typical PPR scoring) and two games with five or less. He enters Week 6 with a hamstring issue that could be concerning for a speed burner like him and a tough matchup with Stephon Gilmore on the other side. The perception, which could very well be accurate, is that this will be a high-scoring shootout with multiple players reaching the end zone. This game has the highest O/U of Week 6 at 59.5. Will Watkins be one of those guys to reach the end zone? Who knows? Keep in mind too that even though the Pats defense has had some rough spots early in the year, they are 10th-best at restricting fantasy points to WRs. Watkins is always a play away from making a splash, but this week seems too risky to use a flex spot on him.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers

Don't do it. You've been missing him in your lineup while he's stashed on your bench, rolling out the likes of Ricky Seals-Jones, Geoff Swaim or (shudder) Charles Clay just to fill that TE spot. Wait it out. Olsen may, in fact, play against Washington on Sunday, so it's reasonable to think you should start him. How did that work out last year when he returned in Week 11 only to catch one pass for 10 yards? Or again in Week 13 when he saw one target and didn't haul it in? Olsen has already said he needs surgery after the season for a fractured foot but will play through it for now. That seems promising for a 33-year-old player who's logged 166 games of NFL action... While Olsen will gut it out and may somehow hobble through a few more games, his fantasy value is all but shot. Hopefully, he is spending his practice time warming up his vocal cords for a spot in the broadcasting booth very soon.

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