Ellis Johnsons' Wide Receivers #11-19: Half PPR Draft Rankings

In the second part of this series, Ellis Johnson breaks down the next wide receivers in his rankings. If you're looking for some detailed analysis on some top WRs, you've come to the right place!

Last season, my wide receiver draft rankings finished 15th in the FantasyPros accuracy contest.  I have projected each player's stat lines and this is where they line up. In this series of articles, I share my top-60 receivers, with a detailed analysis of each player. 

My projections are created based on the number of passing yards, completions, and touchdowns that I believe each team will have. Using the previous year's data and the current betting lines for players' individual yards and touchdowns, I collected the data and made my projections.

Get ready as I break down why I have moved some players since my projections. I went through each team and projected statistics for each player and updated my rankings to reflect them. Here is the link to all of my rankings and projections for each position. I hope you enjoy the list!

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings #11-19

August 2022 update: I have included my pre-projection ranking in brackets

11. (9) Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF): Yes, this is low for Diggs. Despite having a huge ceiling, I have my concerns. I understand that being linked to a great QB means he could easily be top-five. However, despite Josh Allen’s amazing last two seasons, Diggs hasn’t shown top-of-the-position greatness. Last season, he might have had one of the quietest WR7 seasons in 2021. If you rostered him, it did not feel like he was the WR1 you drafted him to be. With only two games over 100 yards and only one multi-touchdown game, Diggs failed to bring the week-winning upside of other top WRs. It's hard to predict Allen having a better season than he just did, making me question why Diggs will now become that elite option so many are predicting. I expect Diggs to bounce back and regain some of the weekly upside that comes from playing on one of the league's best offenses, but I see a similar underwhelming fantasy finish to last season.

12. (15) Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND): I’ll be honest, there’s something about Pittman that I’m scared of. I’m not sure if it’s an inconsistent 2021 season or the fact that he has yet another change at QB. Either way, there’s no denying that the breakout finally happened for Pittman last season. The Colts have been desperately looking for a WR to take over from the veteran T.Y. Hilton, and Pittman seems to be that guy. The WR17 from 2021 remains practically alone on the WR depth chart. Now with the presumed upgrade of Matt Ryan under center, Pittman will be the focal point of this team's passing attack. I don’t love having him as my WR1 on my fantasy team, but it’s hard not to rank him here.

13. (17) Tee Higgins (WR, CIN): Arguably the best WR1-2 combination finishes with Higgins. Chase is electric and can make the big play; however, Higgins would be the top guy on the majority of current NFL depth charts. He has been great ever since the Bengals drafted him in the second round in 2020. His 6’4”, 215 lb frame allows him to thrive in contested catch situations and could easily take advantage of playing across from Chase. This offense should produce two top-20 receivers, and if the NFL can stop Chase in the red zone, Burrow won’t hesitate to turn Higgins’ way, which raises his ceiling.

14. (14) D.J. Moore (WR, CAR): One of these years Moore has to break out… right? Year after year, Moore has proven to be one of the best young players in the NFL but lacks the QB to make it happen. If Baker Mayfield can beat out Sam Darnold to be the starter, we will finally have hope. Regardless, we at least know the volume will be there for Moore, as last season he had the sixth-most targets in the league. With Mayfield on a mission to prove to the NFL that he is a starting QB, it would make sense for him to hyper-target Moore and Christian McCaffery. After all, Mayfield has to be an upgrade from Darnold… right?

15. (20) Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU): Cooks producing for fantasy might make it eight wonders of the world. I have him ranked right where he finished last year. The Texans appear to be turning a corner; however, they are still considered the worst team in the league. With their new defensive-minded head coach and Davis Mills under center, Cooks is unlikely to be a fantasy star but could be an incredible value if you can select him as your WR3 or late-round WR2.

16. (16) Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA): Miami paid a large price and sacrificed their 2022 draft to bring in the cheetah. Now that they have lost a 2023 first-round pick, this was huge capital to give up. Despite the price tag, I see a 1A-1B situation with Jalen Waddle. So far in camp and preseason, it appears that Hill and Tua have built some chemistry. Knowing that Tua and Waddle already have a connection, we can only hope there is enough to go around for both receivers. Hill always has the ability to return to the top-10 at the position, but the split with Waddle worries me.

17. (34) Marquise Brown (WR, ARI): Hollywood Brown is another WR I've been steadily rising on throughout the offseason. Brown was a top-10 fantasy WR over the first eight weeks of the season. Although I think Lamar Jackson's passing game is underrated, it's clear that Kyler Murray should be an upgrade. Together, these two electric players will try and spark the connection they had in college. Plus, with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six games, he could easily set the world on fire to start the season and possibly well into January.

18. (29) Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI): It’s starting to become no secret that Mooney is one of the more talented young WRs in the league. Usually, being on a bad Bears team, this is when I say the team around him limits his upside. Although that may be partly true, it’s being on this team that should guarantee his fantasy success. Seriously, who else is going to catch passes on this offense? This team should be playing from behind frequently and will have to pass the ball more than they would like. It might be a little gross, but Mooney could find his way into the top-24 this season.

19. (17) Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA): If it wasn’t for the record-breaking rookie seasons of Chase and Jefferson, the dynasty community would be losing their mind over Jaylen Waddle and his WR13 finish in 2021. Since May and July, I have cooled a little on Waddle (partly due to his current injury) and started to believe Hill can build chemistry and produce with Tua. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Waddle managed to out-target Hill and produce similarly for fantasy. In the words of his QB, get ready for Waddle to "YAC the heck out of teams" and could be the perfect mix of safety and upside as a WR2.

Stay tuned for my next article where I break down receivers #20-30!

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