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Justin Carter's NASCAR Cup Series DFS lineup picks for DraftKings, FanDuel for the GEICO 500 at Talladega. Read our fantasy NASCAR picks.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega this weekend for what should be a thrilling race on NASCAR's longest oval. This is the kind of race where chaos tends to happen, so the available player pool expands. Every driver could be a viable play, though there are some who start too far to the front to really make sense because the thing that'll kill you here is negative place differential.
The Cup Series was last here in October, with Chase Elliott winning in what was a relatively calm Talladega race. Seven of the top 10 finishers were playoff drivers, and just four drivers had a DNF. Compare that to last spring, when we had 13 DNFs—if we get that kind of race on Sunday, then a lot of this DFS advice goes out the window because competitive cars will crash out and finish near the bottom.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the GEICO 500 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 4/23/23 at 3:18 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Chase Elliott
Starts 29th - DK: $10,100, FD: $13,000
Chase Elliott is back! Even though...he was back last week already:
But putting aside the weird marketing strategy NASCAR's got going on with Chase, he's going to be a popular DFS play this weekend. I think he'll be a little chalky for my liking in GPPs, where I might go light on him and a little heavier on someone like Kyle Busch, but he'll be in a lot of my head-to-head lineups.
Elliott starts pretty far back in 29th, offering a lot of place differential upside for the driver who won here the last time the Cup Series visited this track. Elliott, who has to win a race at this point to make the playoffs because his extended absence means he's not going to be able to get there on points, has won twice here in the Cup Series and has a top 10 in half his starts, with an average finish of 14.2.
Ross Chastain
Starts 23rd - DK: $9,400, FD: $11,500
While Ross Chastain was one of the best stories last season, he hasn't won since this race last spring, which is a little worrisome if, for example, you think 2022 was a sign that Chastain was ascending into the upper echelon of NASCAR stars.
But what better way to get back to his winning ways than a return to Talladega? He was top five here in both races last year, and while he only led the final lap in his spring victory, he led 36 of them while finishing fourth in the second race. Don't let his lack of qualifying speed worry you too much, as Chastain started 19th in his win here.
William Byron
Starts 18th - DK: $9,700, FD: $12,500
Byron's someone who I feel could go overlooked because a lot of people target guys starting 25th or worse for place differential points here. But I think Byron's an intriguing play.
He's never won here, but he's often near the front, finishing in the top 15 in five of the last six races here, with a crash in the fall 2021 race being the one issue he's had over that span. He's led double-digit laps five times in his 10 Talladega starts, including leading 38 of them in this race last spring. Byron's best Talladega finish is second. He's going to win here one of these days. Will it be Sunday?
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Brad Keselowski
Starts 20th - DK: $9,200, FD: $10,500
Keselowski finished 24th in points in his first season at RFK Racing, though a penalty impacted that. Right now, he's 12th in points through the first nine races of the 2023 Cup Series season.
And now he heads to Talladega, a place Keselowski has enjoyed a ton of success. And by a ton, I really mean a ton, as he's won here six times, most recently in 2021, when he won the spring race then finished second in the fall.
Sure, that success all came with Penske, minus his 2009 win while running part time for James Finch. But at a superspeedway, the team itself isn't really what matters. It's having drafting partners—teammate Chris Buescher, plus the other Fords—and having the know-how to survive the big one. Keselowski only has three DNFs in his 28 starts here, so you can bet that he'll be around at the end.
Austin Hill
Starts 31st - DK: $5,900, FD: $4,500
I was listening to an Austin Hill interview on SiriusXM Friday, and he was talking about what makes him so good at superspeedways, and he said he remains calm during these races and if he gets shuffled back into traffic, he doesn't worry, because he knows he can get back to the front.
That might not be as true in Cup, since he isn't in elite equipment. But Hill's patience can help him get to the end of this one. Prior to Saturday's Xfinity race, Hill had won both Xfinity races this season on superspeedways, plus he won Daytona last year. If he can get some drafting help and stays out of trouble, this can be a play that really pays off.
Note: This is written before Saturday's Talladega Xfinity race. I don't know what'll happen in it, but Hill's on the pole. His result—good or bad—doesn't impact how I feel about him on Sunday.
Todd Gilliland
Starts 32nd - DK: $5,700, FD: $4,000
Gilliland isn't in his usual car this weekend, as Zane Smith will be running the 38, which shifts Gilliland to a third FRM car. That likely means the pit crew won't be as good, which could cost him some time. But one thing Gilliland does have going for him: he's got his usual spotter, something that's especially important at a track like this that features pack racing.
At Daytona, Gilliland crashed out, but his average running position was 20th. At Atlanta, he hung around until the end and finished 15th, running as high as seventh.
Last season, Gilliland finished seventh in the fall race here after starting 34th. He's a sleeper to get a top 15, maybe a top 10, heck...maybe more depending on how much carnage we get.
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