Free XFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 3

March 4, 2023

Free XFL betting picks, odds, predictions for Week 3 (2023). Our best bets and top XFL picks for moneylines, over/unders and more.

The 2023 XFL season is officially upon us, and we are finally getting XFL and USFL action together for our viewing pleasure this Spring football season. Sportsbooks are now available on that device in your pocket all over the world, and so this is going to be a Spring Football season like no other. I'll be here every week providing sports betting advice for XFL action, so join me here and let's get Xtreme. Be sure to also read all our other weekly XFL fantasy football articles.

Also, don't fret...I'll be back, right here, to talk about gambling on the USFL in April; and if we ever start expanding into the realms of the European League of Football, Indoor Football League, Fan Controlled Football, and/or (I can only hope) the CPBL of Taiwan come baseball season–I'll be right here to discuss the full happenings across the board.

They might not be the #1...or #2 leagues...but damn it, we've congregated here because we love sports. So, when the powers to be in professional sports decide to supply our hungry demand for more year-round action, it would be fundamentally and morally wrong of us to not take a head-first dive into Spring Football education so that we can continue to enter DFS contests and place anxiety-inducing bets on games that most of our friends and family probably won't even know are being played--and if you're still reading this paragraph, I am fully confident that you share my sentiment on that point. Anyway, let's get to talking about the Spring Football league that could've only been originally brought to us by the minds behind the WWE. XFL 2023: let's rock. With Week 2 in the books, I'm ready to jump ships and hop on a couple of new ones, complete with power rankings and a short MVP ladder.

Week 3 Power Rankings

1. D.C. Defenders
2. Houston Roughnecks
3. St. Louis Battlehawks
4. San Antonio Brahmas
5. Arlington Renegades
6. Seattle Sea Dragons
7. Las Vegas Vipers
8. Orlando Guardians

Week 3 (Abbreviated) MVP Ladder

1. A.J. McCarron (QB, Battlehawks)
2. Brandon Silvers (QB, Roughnecks)
3. Jack Coan (QB, Brahmas)

Sea Dragons at Vipers (Saturday, March 4th, 7 PM)

Best Bet: Sea Dragons (-3)

The Seattle Sea Dragons are now 0-2, as are their week 3 opponents the Las Vegas Vipers. They each played an away game first and then a home game. After that, I start to see some key differences. Seattle faced two of the three best teams in the league in the Defenders and Battlehawks, held a lead for the greater part of each game, and between those two losses--they were only outscored by a count of 42-36 (3 per week). Vegas was able to cover +2.5 in week 1 against the Arlington Renegades, but that Renegades squad was looking offensively lackluster behind Drew Plitt's 8.6 YPC and 2:3 TD/INT ratio (but we'll get to that later). Last week, Vegas was tasked with D.C.--the top team in my week 3 power rankings, and the home field wasn't much of an advantage, as they were thoroughly outmatched with a final score of 18-6.

Seattle has been the much more competitive team against stronger competition through two games, and I don't think Rod Woodson has the coaching chops or surrounding personnel to figure things out before they are too far gone. A bright spot for the Vipers has been WR Jeff Badet (eight receptions, 87 yards, two TDs), but between Luis Perez and Brett Hundley, they don't seem able to fully utilize Badet's capabilities through the QB position. Not only that, but Vegas's running game is absolutely horrible, evidenced by the fact that Rod Smith (VGS leading rusher) ranks 17th in the XFL in rushing yards, while Ben DiNucci--the Sea Dragon with the third-most ground-yardage, ranks 16th. Beyond that production gap, DiNucci is the top yardage passer in the XFL right now with 478 yards and three touchdowns (Week 2: 19/29 passing, 196 yards, two TD, 38 yards on eight carries, one fumble lost), and he has been connecting well with the legendary likes of Josh Gordon (fourth most receiving yards in the league: 107 and a TD) and a balanced Seattle ground attack of Morgan Ellison & Brenden Knox. The third time should be the charm here for the Sea Dragons. I am not deterred at all by the game being away when Vegas got tripled-up at home by the same team that Seattle had on the ropes at their home venue in week 1. I think Seattle will end up looking just as better than Vegas as Houston did against Arlington last week.

Battlehawks at Defenders (Sunday, March 5th, 1 PM)

Best Bet: Defenders (-2)

Two of the top three teams in the XFL and the two teams that have thus far defeated the Sea Dragons square up here in an early-afternoon Sunday game in the nation's capitol, with D.C. getting the two-point home advantage from the oddsmakers. In winning a close game with Seattle and then resoundingly dismantling the Vipers in Vegas, that makes one (subjectively) quality win and another that came on the road, and their 2-0 start is largely due to the clear coaching competence of Reggie Barlow and their multi-versed running game. D.C. has three players (Abram Smith, Ryquell Armstead, & Jordan Ta'amu) in the XFL top five in rushing yards (with a TD a piece), while D'Eriq King ranks #15 in his currently rush-centric role at QB. The issue has been the so-far worst performance by an XFL QB coming from Spring Football veteran Jordan Ta'amu, who ranks eighth in passing yards with just 179, zero TD, & one INT on an unsightly 19 of 42 passing. Even with their mostly well-rounded play and success on the ground, it is tough to see them staying undefeated for long when they are so much more in the air than the rest of the league--so maybe we start to see King take on more of the total QB duties(?).

I'll eat some crow here with St. Louis: I seem to at least have been slightly to moderately off in my evaluation of this team and of A.J. McCarron at quarterback. To come out of back-to-back road games to start the season with a 2-0 record against the high-octane Sea Dragons and the ground-savvy, surprisingly competent-so-early Brahmas, who I believe are the second best team in the South Division (for now), AND A.J. McCarron is looking like the early MVP-favorite, all for a HC with shockingly little high-level experience? They've got to be happy, and I have certainly been impressed. However, a third-straight win away is a bit too much to ask. Seattle may have inexplicably been unable to stop McCarron from running all over the field, but the Defenders will not have this problem. Maybe D.C. struggles a bit running against the Battlehawks D-Line, but this D.C. team has both what it takes to control the pace of the game and to stop the Bengals backup QB-ridden offense of St. Louis with greater success than their previous two foes. Plus, realistically, the sheer odds that the Battlehawks come from behind in the fashion they did to win both of those first two games suggests that they're now flying a bit too close to the sun, and this Defenders crowd provides a fantastic environment--which for some reason, their home venue security staff seems to have an issue with. The spread is justifiably close, but I would take D.C. up to -2.5.

Guardians at Renegades (Sunday, March 5th, 4 PM)

Best Bet: Renegades (-9.5)

This was initially going to be a tough one. Drew Plitt hasn't looked good, but Paxton Lynch and the entire Orlando Guardians franchise look absolutely horrible right now, from the infrastructure and down. Not to pick on Paxton (who I actually loved in his Memphis college days), because Quinten Dormady & Deondre Francois haven't looked of professional caliber either; and while they've had some success with their backfield duo of Jah-Maine Martin & Kelvin Taylor, and this coaching staff and QB room cannot take advantage of what pass-catching weapons Cody Latimer, Andrew Jamiel, & Eli Rogers have to offer. I give Terrell Buckley very little time remaining as head coach of the Guardians, and from his demeanor, I bet many of his players won't be sorry to see him go.

I was also very, very down on the Arlington Renegades following a nine-point loss to the Houston Roughnecks where their offense looked as unexplosive & non-dangerous as I ever could've imagined, and the fact that their lone win is over Vegas gave further credence to the sentiment that they rank third in their division behind San Antonio. I had no confidence remaining in the Plitt-sburgh passing game to take me another week. Then, as if beckoned by a higher power, it was announced a day ago that Kyle Sloter will be starting at QB for Arlington in week 3. Now--why it took so long for this to happen--I have no earthly idea; but that means an All-USFL quarterback is at the reigns for a team in desperate need of an offensive boost, and "Sloter Saturdays" are back in effect to wreak havoc on the abysmal Guardians. I believe that Orlando is so bad (and indeed, getting worse) that Arlington could've covered the big number with a 13-point dump-down clinic via Plitt, but with Kyle Sloter in the game as we all expected he would be from the very beginning, I think it is most likely that this plays out very similar to Orlando's first two games, with a home advantage for the Renegades making me feel good that this game ends up 30+ to 10-12. Unless Buckley wises up in his GM and coaching duties and either resigns or signs a completely different roster, the Orlando Guardians are an easy fade moving forward.

Brahmas at Roughnecks (Sunday, March 5th, 8 PM)

Best Bet: Roughnecks (-4.5)

The opening week loss to the Battlehawks was an absolute heart-breaker and highlighted the cold reality of life in a Spring Football league with a funky set of rules. Even so, San Antonio was a millimeter away from leaving with a victory against a much-hyped organization in Hines Ward's first game as HC. One week later, the Brahmas did what they needed to emphatically take care of business against the doormat Guardians, and Jack Coan has quietly been performing and discreetly sliding into my MVP Ladder with 372 passing yards, four TDs, and just one interception on 41 of 60 (68.3% completions) passing. He is not a light-em-up QB--he is a sturdy, reliable, low-ceiling game manager (predictably from Notre Dame). But you know what? We've always known that's what he is, and in a Brahmas offense leaning on workhorse (if not quite inefficient) backs like Kalen Ballage & Jacques Patrick, that's all that he needs to be. San Antonio plays at a different pace than most of the league, which if done right, is a distinct advantage. Plus, they were about to hold St. Louis to significantly fewer points in week 1 as they lost 18-15, and they were thankfully able to put up 30 on Orlando last week while holding them to 12. I like what this team is doing overall, and until Kyle Sloter and the Renegades run Orlando off the field on Sunday, their well-roundedness and solid play from Coan paired with a pace-halting ground attack should earn them the distinction of #2 in the South.

However, the Houston Roughnecks are the best in the South Division. Granted, every game including this week has been a home contest for Wade Phillips and the Roughnecks, but they outscored Arlington and Orlando 56 to 26 in total, and Brandon Silvers (40 of 70 passing, 445 yards, four TD, two picks) might not be hitting with pinpoint accuracy, but his ability to complete a pass for 10+ yards is apparently extraordinarily rare for the 2023 XFL, and it has set Houston apart as an explosive offense. Max Borghi and Cole McDonald have been fantastic assets for rushing the ball, while Jontre Kirkland and Deontay Burnett are both top-five XFL receivers with a combined 221 yards and two scores on 16 receptions. At first, I thought San Antonio has proven enough to show that they can keep this game close, and that can certainly happen if the Brahmas ground game succeeds in controlling the flow of the game, but Houston looks so good passing the ball compared to the rest of the league that I ultimately don't think that the Brahmas can score enough points to cover this spread, because if they are forced to speed themselves up and Jack Coan has to look further down field--the offense could end up slowing to a stand-still. Even with their two wins coming in Houston over two teams far from at their best levels, another home game against an in-state rival is a nice boost to the already strong case, and I would probably roll with the Roughnecks up to -5.5. Either way, tune into this one, because we are going to learn a lot about what level these two teams are actually at.

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