Free USFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 4

May 6, 2023

Free USFL betting picks, odds, predictions for Week 4 (2023). Our best bets and top USFL picks for moneylines, over/unders and more.

The 2023 USFL season is officially upon us, and we are finally getting XFL and USFL action together for our viewing pleasure this Spring football season. Sportsbooks are now available on that device in your pocket all over the world, and so this is going to be a Spring Football season like no other. I'll be here every week providing sports betting advice for USFL action, so join me here and pay homage to the original "fun" league. Be sure to also read all our other weekly USFL Fantasy Football articles.

If we ever start expanding into the realms of the European League of Football, Indoor Football League, Fan Controlled Football, and/or (I can only hope) the CPBL of Taiwan come baseball season–I'll be right here to discuss the full happenings across the board.

They might not be the #1...or #2 leagues...but damn it, we've congregated here because we love sports. So, when the powers to be in professional sports decide to supply our hungry demand for more year-round action, it would be fundamentally and morally wrong of us to not take a head-first dive into Spring Football education so that we can continue to enter DFS contests and place anxiety-inducing bets on games that most of our friends and family probably won't even know are being played--and if you're still reading this paragraph, I am fully confident that you share my sentiment on that point. Anyway, let's get to talking about the Spring Football league that started it all with the likes of Steve Young, Jim Kelly, Reggie White, Doug Flutie, and near-Congressman Herschel Walker.

Entering Week 4, we just saw a big shake-up at the top of the power rankings and a real gob-smacker from the state of Pennsylvania--so let's readjust our ways of thinking and tackle this week of the USFL with an updated view of the 2023 championship odds.

Week 4 USFL Power Rankings (With Updated Future Odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)

1. New Orleans Breakers (+400)**
2. Birmingham Stallions (+240)
3. New Jersey Generals (+400)**
4. Michigan Panthers (+500)
5. Pittsburgh Maulers (+2000)
6. Philadelphia Stars (+500)
7. Houston Gamblers (+1600)
8. Memphis Showboats (+2000)

** - Best value in respective division

Week 4 USFL MVP Ladder

1. McLeod Bethel-Thompson (QB, New Orleans Breakers)
2. Darius Victor (RB, New Jersey Generals)
3. Reggie Corbin (RB, Michigan Panthers)
4. Wes Hills/Sage Surratt (RB/TE, New Orleans Breakers)
5. De'Andre Johnson/Alex McGough (QBs, New Jersey Generals/Birmingham Stallions)

Week 4

Houston Gamblers at Philadelphia Stars (Saturday, May 6th, 1 PM)

PHI (-2.5), O/U 46.5

Best Bet: Stars (-2.5) & Over 46.5

If you would've told me after Week 1 that these teams would both be 1-2 by the time of this matchup, I would've bet both of my hands that the Philadelphia Stars must've started off 0-2--because there's no way that they take a loss to the Pittsburgh Maulers. Well, I would've been very wrong and probably struggling to type this out because the Stars got absolutely crunched by the Maulers last week.

The shabby Stars O-line got run through by the likes of Reuben Foster, as Case Cookus tossed for two INT and the team lost an additional fumble, while they mustered an embarrassing 18 total rushing yards on 18 carries (for those of you doing the math--that is 1.0 YPC). The Houston Gamblers, on the other hand, picked up their first win of the campaign in a 30-26 barn-burner with the Memphis Showboats.

In very 2022-Gambler fashion, Houston squandered their 23-10 lead in a 16-0 fourth-quarter run by Memphis, but banished a few of their demons with a late touchdown. The Memphis defense has not proven stout, but Kenji Bahar limited himself to one pick as Houston won the TO battle 2-1 and Bahar threw for 235 yards and two TD on 22/36 passing (61.1%).

The real juice is in the backfield, where a returning Mark Thompson took 21 carries for 81 yards and two touchdowns along with T.J. Pledger who added 44 in four tries; plus WR Justin Hall who ranks fourth in the USFL in receptions (16), second in receiving yards (220), and first in receiving touchdowns (four).

Despite those bright spots, this is a bad matchup for Houston. By any measure, Houston is one of the worst defenses in the USFL, ranking last in passing defense and second-last in points allowed (93). Philly is one of the league's best passing offenses, rank mid-pack in most major defensive categories, and their secondary could give Kenji headaches all Saturday long to the tune of another 2+ INT.

I think the Stars can survive the Gamblers rushing game--and the Stars don't need to run to put up 26+ on this defense. I still believe Philadelphia to be the better team (I mean, they have to be, right?), and I see this game ending in a final score range of 25-22 to 30-27. One-dimensionality will continue to haunt the Stars against the USFL's upper-echelon though.

Memphis Showboats at Michigan Panthers (Saturday, May 6th, 7:30 PM)

MICH (-6.5), O/U 45.5

Best Bet: Panthers (-6.5) & Under 45.5

The Michigan Panthers enter Week 4 with as much of a balanced, stand-out defensive core as we've been able to make out, with three players in the USFL top-five in tackles with a combined 60 (Frank Ginda, Corrion Ballard, & Noah Dawkins). For how much better Michigan has looked through three games in 2023, last week they just encountered a hungry New Jersey team coming into their own, and now the Panthers seem to occupy their own one-team tier below the top-three and above the bottom four.

Josh Love and Carson Strung combined for a super-pedestrian 163 yards, one TD, and one INT on 19/40 passing (47.5%), and while Reggie Corbin added 65 all-purpose yards to Stevie Scott III's 63 rushing yards on 12 carries, they got out-gained 377-265 and didn't capitalize on their red zone opportunity in a 28-13 trampling by the Generals three-headed running monster.

Well, they're taking on the Memphis Showboats in Week 4, the only USFL team without a win despite losing to the Stars and Gamblers by just a combined eight points (we don't have to mention the Birmingham game). The Showboats have succeeded in the passing department this year if you only judge that by a few numbers--former Memphis Tiger Brady White gave way to Southeastern Louisiana alum Cole Kelley at QB this week, and Kelley slung (somewhat inefficiently) for 307 yards, two TD, and one pick on 21/38 passing (55.3) in a furious fourth-quarter comeback attempt. But do you remember how that ended? It ended with Memphis's Swiss cheese defense giving up an easy game-winning touchdown.

They've given up a league-worst 99 points and 367.7 yards per game, and they get killed through the air and on the ground. To pile it on, their backfield situation is atrocious. Somehow, they're only second-worst in the league in total ground yardage (180) over the Stars, have a lone rushing TD through three games, and their longest single run went for 16 yards. Alex Collins leads the team with 98 yards on 33 carries, and yet he managed -2 in six tries for Week 3 while Cole Kelley gained 17 and Kerrith Whyte picked up another six in three attempts. That's not going to cut it against most of the teams in this league on most nights.

Against a one-dimensional, struggling team--the Showboats can't make it past four-point losses. Against a well-rounded, competitive team? MAYBE they score more than the Gamblers and Stars could manage if Kelley does his best Ben DiNucci impression all over the field, but Michigan is better by a much bigger margin in every other category of the game. The Panthers take this by a final score within the range of 24-10 to 27-14. I struggle to imagine a universe where anything but laying the points and going under 45.5 here is the right call.

New Orleans Breakers at New Jersey Generals (Sunday, May 7th, 3 PM)

NOLA (-2.5), O/U 44.5

Best Bet: Generals (+2.5), *ML (+140)*, & Over 44.5

I'll be attending these two games live--and I'm going to keep these analyses considerably more brief. Both of these teams scored signature wins this past week, with the Breakers thoroughly handling and gaining all over the place for a 45-31 victory over the once-invincible Birmingham Stallions, while the Generals finally got the last piece of their rushing puzzle back on the field in Trey Williams; as he, Darius Victor, and De'Andre Johnson combined for 191 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while Johnson had a low-key but very high-efficiency passing performance of 10/15 for 180 yards and two touchdowns.

The New Orleans offense has been ridiculously good in every department (see my MVP ladder for additional details), but considering how bad the Breakers defense has been in terms of points allowed when compared to that of New Jerseys, which ranks near the top in most major categories, and putting aside the difference in results against an increasingly more injury-riddled Stallions team, I have to consider this to be a 50/50 matchup between possibly the two best teams in the league, and so I feel strongly about New Jersey (+2.5) and as a ML play. The run-heavy Generals attack should drain a bit more time than the Breakers have been losing to their opponents, keeping the score lower and the ball out of McLeod Bethel-Thompson's hands for longer. I expect a final score range of 22-21 to 26-24, so I lean slightly to the over.

Birmingham Stallions at Pittsburgh Maulers (Sunday, May 7th, 6:30 PM)

BHAM (-8.5), O/U 43.5

Best Bet: Maulers (+8.5) & Under 43.5

First and foremost: in a season that has so far seen little play-making defense, at least statistically-speaking, the Pittsburgh Maulers boast arguably the most intimidating player on the defensive side in LB Reuben Foster, who has 26 total tackles, two TFL, and one INT through three games; not to mention other defensive stalwarts like Kyahva Tezino and Olive Sagapolu. That used to be the only thing worth mentioning about Pittsburgh, but in their shocking victory over Philadelphia last week, Troy Williams at QB made a big difference with 10/18 passing for 96 yards, one TD, and zero INT while he, Garrett Groshek, and Madre London combined for a respectable 135 yards on the ground.

In their 14-point loss to New Orleans last week--Alex McGough played well, and we have a large enough sample size of the Birmingham defense to trust their abilities in this weakened state while chalking the Breakers 45 points up to how good that offense is, but what I struggle with is how bad the Birmingham rushing attack has been. Initially, it didn't seem like it would be this bad with Bo Scarborough out--but last week it was virtually non-existent, and whatever CJ Marable is bringing to the table just isn't enough. If Birmingham plans on passing a lot, they can expect a lot of trouble from the Maulers defense. I haven't come so far up on Pittsburgh or so far down on Birmingham to make a bold ML play, but I think the Maulers keep this within a touchdown, with a final score range of 20-13 to 24-16.

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