April 20, 2024

RotoBrady provides his picks and analysis for betting on every game of Week 4 of the UFL season.

Why, WHY, would they put games on at the same time on the same day? Why, WHY, not just put on a game on a week day or just at a different time instead of forcing your dedicated fans to make some very difficult choices?

That is very frustrating--if you are making people work that much harder to stay on top of the games, it is an issue. Especially in this period of time following the NCAA tournament.

If you are betting these spreads and you had Arlington to cover, last week felt like a nightmare going in slow motion. It is hard to have much confidence in anything week-to-week other than the Stallions to cover and individual game over/unders. It has been a real adjustment to take this 4th & 12 rule and possible 7/8/9-point possessions into account with these point spreads, but we must adjust quickly, because spring football seasons are short, and we only get one of them in 2024.

Having said that, let's dive into Week 4 and see if we can avoid the extremely brutal beats that caused me to go 5-3 last week.

Power Rankings

1. Birmingham Stallions (+140 to win it all--still a steal)
2. Michigan Panthers (+950 is an absolute bargain)
3. St. Louis Battlehawks (+250 is a bit too lofty right now)
4. San Antonio Brahmas (+650--meh)
5. Memphis Showboats (+1300--can they turn this ship around? We need to see major improvements, but keep an eye on this number)
6. Arlington Renegades (yes, because they were the better team last week than D.C.--+2200 to win the championship? I'll take it)
7. D.C. Defenders (+550--not for team I'm watching)
8. Houston Roughnecks (+3500--let's see Mark Thompson in action)

Week 4 Picks

Memphis Showboats at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, April 20th, at 12:30PM ET)

St. Louis (-7), Over 45.5

The Memphis Showboats are in a tight spot entering Week 4. Their first loss was the first time we saw the better team lose the game this season as the result of the 4th & 12 rule, and last week they got absolutely man-handled by the Birmingham Stallions 33-14. Now, if they want to get back on a winning track, they have to do it on the road in front of 40,000 raucous fans. Case Cookus and the Showboats offense have really struggled to get their footing behind an offensive line providing awful protection. The receiving weapons to (include Vinny Papale, Sage Surratt, and Jonathan Adams) are all there, but the backfield was shockingly ineffective with the New Jersey Generals duo of Darius Victor and Trey Williams. Overall, this is a very disappointing image for a team that entered the season with one of the top rosters on paper.

The Battlehawks, on the other hand, just picked up a high-scoring 31-24 road victory over the Brahmas. UFL fans are now starting to consider them to be the XFL team that has a swinging chance to dethrone the Stallions. A.J. McCarron has been consistently money, ranking third in the league in total passing yards with five touchdowns and zero picks. The backfield that Mataeo Durant took by force has now added Jacob Saylors into the mix. Marcell Ateman, Darrius Shepherd, and Hakeem Butler have been doing significant damage in different ways week after week--and to cap it all off--Jahcour Pearson is officially active this week. The one glaring concern for this St. Louis squad is in the defense. It wasn't good to give up 18 to Michigan in Week 1, and it wasn't good to give up 48 points combined over the last two weeks. With Pita Taumoepenu inactive, they will be without the strongest defensive teeth that they had to offer.

Especially with the homefield advantage the Battlehawks have, I have not seen much from the Showboats to give me any sort of confidence that they are ready to perform up to preseason expectations. That offense is disjointed and choppy, and even though I thought them the better team vs. San Antonio, this goes back to the point that it is still up to the coaches to adjust their approach around the different UFL rules that allow for higher scoring, and John DeFilippo has been behind. I could see Memphis scoring a bit more or less than the Brahmas did last week, but I think St. Louis gets the win by at least a touchdown. I think this final score will be in the 31-21 to 34-21 neighborhood, and so the over remains the play with St. Louis.

D.C. Defenders at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, April 20th, at 7PM ET)

Birmingham (-9), Over 46.5

I understand that the brass wants to keep the games as close as possible for entertainment value, but the 4th & 12 rule allowed the Defenders to escape with a win last week against the Renegades despite getting thoroughly worked by Arlington in every major category (besides points, I suppose). If you had Arlington in any fashion last week, you were probably going berserk, and as you can see from my power rankings, I do not believe at all in D.C.'s 2-1 record. Despite Jordan Ta'amu ranking second in the UFL in passing yards, the Defenders only have one receiver in the top ten in yardage (Ty Scott), and only two more to round out the top 25. The running back room has been wildly mediocre as well, and they will be missing both Pooka Williams and Darius Hagans this week. If you go back to how they got routed by San Antonio and barely got past the Roughnecks, one can conclude that this defense has been on skates too.

I swear I could almost copy and paste the same paragraph about the Stallions every week--it would still ring true, because they keep getting better and they continued their dominance of the Memphis Showboats in Week 3 at 33-14. The amount of playmakers on both offense and defense is just staggering. You've got league-leaders and depth for days in Deon Cain, Amari Rodgers, Ricky Person Jr., Jace Sternberger, C.J. Marable, Carlos Davis, Taco Charlton, Jordan Thompson, etc. The only real question for Birmingham this week now that CB Mark Gilbert is back is how the QB situation will look early. The rushing ability of Adrian Martinez has been a constant force, and so the variation in the outcome of this game will be in how quickly and how well Matt Corral gets going as he returns to the starting lineup.

Outside of D.C.'s fantastic home environment and inside Birmingham's, I cannot fade Skip Holtz and the Stallions. I think that this will be worse for D.C. than the Brahmas loss and about as good of a win for Birmingham as last week's devastation of Memphis. The trouble I am having is in over or under 46.5. If you end up with the same score as last week, it is only covering by half a point, This final score range could end up anywhere from 31-12 to 35-17. With the way it has been trending around the league, that estimate inclines me to lean over, as Birmingham once again cruises.

Michigan Panthers at San Antonio Brahmas (Saturday, April 20th, at 7PM ET)

Michigan (-1.5), Over 41.5

The Panthers managed to put up an uncharacteristic 34 points last week behind more efficient usage of E.J. Perry, a huge play by Marcus Simms, and the continued saga of Jake Bates and his freakish leg. They also managed to allow 20 points to Houston, which I did not see coming from this defense. Considering that the Roughnecks don't have a bad defensive unit, it was surprising to see the over hit last week, and now E.J. Perry leads the UFL in rushing touchdowns (four) and has joined Wes Hills in the top six of league rushing leaders. This is still the defense that only gave up 36 combined points to the Battlehawks and Stallions in consecutive weeks, so 20 points to Houston isn't enough of an outlier to scare me off--and that is going to be vital this week against an offense dealing with plenty of turnover.

Chase Garbers is out for the year and Anthony McFarland is inactive this week. Those are blows, for sure, but the Brahmas responded by signing well-traveled QB Kevin Hogan, and Quinten Dormady will be getting the start over Hogan and Tom Flacco. In the backfield, John Lovett and Brycen Alleyne remain in place, and 2023 Seattle Sea Dragons star RB Morgan Ellison has been added to the equation (I am counting the many days until the Dragons come back). This passing attack still boasts pass-catchers Cody Latimer, Alize Mack, Jontre Kirklin, and Marquez Stevenson. From the way that Dormady was able to finish out the season as one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the XFL for the Orlando Guardians, I am pretty convinced that this is going to be an improvement under center, as many were very surprised when Garbers was announced as the starter before Week 1. Garbers had been successful in A.J. Smith's system, so not to take anything away from him, but Dormady can just do so much more. This Brahmas defense has been very middle of the road after holding D.C. to just 12 points to start the season--Jordan Mosley, Jordan Williams, and Tavante Beckett all have 20+ tackles on the year, but that might be more prescriptive of how they are forced to play due to the fast pace of the offense.

It will be very interesting to see how the changes in San Antonio's offensive personnel take shape this week, and this is by far the hardest game to make a call on this week. I think the right way to go is to opt for Michigan laying the small number. Michigan has very much looked like a top-three team all season, and while I love the additions of Dormady and Ellison for the Brahmas, I don't know how those pieces will mesh together this first time out, and I think Dormady is ultimately the reason that the over will hit. Michigan continues to find moderate offensive success behind the legs of Hills and Perry, and can walk away from any drive of any length with at least three points. I could see a final score range of 21-19 to 26 or 27-24. So go over, and lay 1.5 with the Panthers and keep close watch of how San Antonio's offense looks.

Arlington Renegades at Houston Roughnecks (Sunday, April 21st, at 2PM ET)

Arlington (-2.5), Over 46.5

I've harped on this plenty, but just to be clear: the Renegades were the better team last week. Yet, here they sit at 0-3 with Luis Perez's 737 passing yards leading the league. To make the case for their quality of play--in Week 1, before losing the fourth quarter by a tremendous margin, they had kept it tied with the Stallions at 11-11 with only a few minutes left in the third. The next week, they had to go into St. Louis for the Battlehawks home opener and lost a close shoot-out 28-26. Then, last week, they control every aspect of the game for 99% of the game and watch it slip through their grasp. This defense definitely leaves something to be desired, but the passing game has been clicking, and behind Lindsey Scott Jr., De'Veon Smith, and Leddie Brown, the ground game is finding traction too.

I will give this to the Houston Roughnecks--they still look like the worst team in the league, but they have looked better and better each week. Reid Sinnett has been quite serviceable since replacing the injured Jarrett Guarantano, and it is always possible that after this week, Kenji Bahar could have the chance to take the reigns at QB1. Say what you will about Bahar, but he is used to running an offense with these other skill players, and at his best, he can absolutely zip. Mark Thompson is no longer inactive, and is visible behind T.J. Pledger on the depth chart. It isn't like they have a bunch of time to steadily ease Thompson back in, and I don't think he wants that either. If he gets significant touch on Sunday, this is a different team. Thompson was the best running back in the UFL last year and was the main reason the Gamblers were able to stay in playoff contention for so long. The downside coming in for Houston is the loss of Oliver Sagapolu, and so you just hope that this solid Reuben Foster-led defense doesn't slip too much.

I still have to trust in how the Renegades have performed regardless of the 0-3 record. One of these teams is getting their first win of the campaign, and I don't think that the comparably weak home crowd for the Roughnecks will be enough to overcome the spread. I do think that if there is truly any rivalry aspect of this game, then that is still a fun matchup of winless teams, and I think that ingredient mixed with Houston's improvement on the scoreboard with each week is the reason that this over hits too. Dormady vs. Perez/Scott Jr. will be a blast to watch, and I think this game ends up with a final score range of 25-20 to 28-25 for the Renegades. If you think it will be too close and chaotic, I don't think there is any shame in a ML play on Arlington either.

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