Free UFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 10

June 1, 2024

RotoBrady provides his picks and analysis for betting on every game of Week 10 of the 2024 UFL season. Which matchups this week look to be good and which are not?

Here we are -- the end of the 2024 UFL regular season, a success in many ways. A work in progress in many ways, too, and the lack of motivation for all eliminated and non-eliminated teams to cap off the year will certainly make this slate of matchups difficult to call. Futures have practically been down to four teams for the last few weeks, and collision courses have been set. How did we end up with two previews of playoff matchups, an XFL Championship rematch between two teams who are otherwise finished for the year, and a Sunday night matchup between the two worst teams in the league?

Even still, there are still some stakes to these games. The Brahmas and Battlehawks are going to be playing for home-field advantage in the XFL Championship, and the winner of the Houston-Memphis matchup will end up getting the No. 1 pick in the UFL Draft (which is quite brilliant by the league -- well done). Now, how much do these players care about their franchise getting the top pick? That remains to be seen, but it is certainly motivation for the coaches and overall organizations. The Renegades and Defenders are once again playing for bragging rights with two Spring Football League legends at the helm. Throughout the entire league, there is plenty of incentive for individual players to perform if they are trying to accumulate tape for a leap to the next level or even just trying to hang around the UFL for next season.

I went 5-4-1 last week, and with that, let's finish up this regular season and pick these games. It's been another fun ride, and I am already dreading the offseason.

Power Rankings

1. Birmingham Stallions
2. St. Louis Battlehawks
3. San Antonio Brahmas
4. Michigan Panthers
5. D.C. Defenders
6. Arlington Renegades
7. Houston Roughnecks
8. Memphis Showboats

Week 10 Picks

Michigan Panthers at Birmingham Stallions (Saturday, June 1 at 2 p.m. EDT)

Birmingham (-8), Under 43.5

This is a game with truly nothing behind it other than individual players wanting to make an impact, and neither team really has a reason to put its best foot forward here and risk injury or risk giving anything away to the opposing team before it runs it back in Birmingham for the USFL Championship.

The Panthers narrowly escaped the Houston Roughnecks last week, and they will be without Matthew Colburn II and Marcus Simms in Week 10. Danny Etling will be getting the start over Bryce Perkins at QB, and the only conceivable reason for that would be Mike Nolan wanting to save Perkins for the important matchup. Birmingham will be considerably less banged up than it has been at other points in the year, and it is coming off of its worst game in years this past week in an 18-9 defeat to the San Antonio Brahmas, looking super out of sync.

If both of these teams are hiding the ball and playing it safe, then those two forces offset, and I will opt for the overall better team coming off an incredibly uncharacteristic loss -- advantage, Birmingham. Michigan is really going to be short-handed on offense, and I do not think that Etling will find too much success with so few weapons to ease the pressure.

I don't care who Birmingham has in the game on offense -- those are better choices than what the Panthers will have, and the coaching advantage always goes to Skip Holtz. This game will be at a conversational pace, and short of a bunch of defensive/special teams points, there is no reason for this to turn into a shootout. I'll say Birmingham takes this 22-10 (so go under), but this is the game I would least recommend betting in Week 10.

San Antonio Brahmas at St. Louis Battlehawks (Saturday, June 1 at 4 p.m. EDT)

St. Louis (-3), Over 44, ML (-170)

Well, these two teams could not be coming off of more different results. San Antonio pulled off the unthinkable with a defensively dominant win over the Birmingham Stallions, and the Battlehawks were upset by the Arlington Renegades in a ML win that you got from this guy.

This game has an actual consequence: the winner gets home-field advantage for the XFL Championship, and for St. Louis, this potentially means that it could have home-field advantage for the entire postseason. The Battlehawks want to play that game at home, and the Brahmas want to play it at home -- but even more so, the Brahmas do not want the Battlehawks to be playing that game at home.

Here's the issue: The Battlehawks are going to have A.J. McCarron back in the lineup, while the injury reports seem to indicate that both Anthony McFarland Jr. and John Lovett will be missing from the Brahmas backfield on Saturday -- and this is in the wake of losing TE Cody Latimer for the remainder of the season.

St. Louis does not have nearly the injury issues that San Antonio does, and at home, playing for home-field advantage (potentially starting a three-game homestand) with the Battlehawks coming off of an upset loss and the Brahmas coming off of the biggest win of the year -- the stage is set for the Battlehawks to secure their home turf.

I see this game ending in the neighborhood of 24-22 to 27-24 for St. Louis. I like the over in this game because I at least expect Chase Garbers and Morgan Ellison to make the most of their opportunities, and I think Bruce Gradkowski can at least manage that many points against Will Reed's defense with McCarron back and in front of a lot of fans. This could be a squeaker, though, so there is nothing wrong with a Battlehawks ML play.

Arlington Renegades at D.C. Defenders (Sunday, June 2 at 12 p.m. EDT)

Arlington (+0.5), Over 46.5, ML (+105)

Finally. FINALLY. The confidence in Arlington's offensive production pays off with a ML victory last week against the Battlehawks, 36-22. It was the game that we knew all year long it was capable of: Luis Perez was slinging for 259 yards and three TDs on 24-of-36 passing, Sal Cannella caught for 70 yards and a touchdown, and the backfield duo of De'Veon Smith and Devin Darrington combined for 81 yards on 18 carries. Manny Wilkins and Jacob Saylors still tore them up on the ground, but the defense stepped up big with three INTs.

The D.C. Defenders are fresh off of a solid 36-21 victory on the road against the Memphis Showboats. Gregg Williams struggled to contain RB Darius Victor, while the D.C. backfield of Darius Hagans and Cam'Ron Harris combined for a rather pedestrian 89 yards on 24 carries. In fact, the three rushing touchdowns came from Jordan Ta'amu, Keke Coutee and Jalan McClendon, who combined for 69 yards on 12 attempts. It seems like Reggie Barlow would be wise to follow this scheme again in Week 10 to keep Arlington guessing by mixing it up.

This is the last game of the 2024 UFL season for these 2023 XFL Championship Game foes, and it is at Audi Field. D.C. has probably the second-best home environment in the league, and it had a breezy game last week while the Renegades are riding high off of the Battlehawks.

In spite of those factors, I am going to have to stand by this rule and opt for Arlington if you are getting it at plus money. It should have won the first matchup of the year at home, and I have to stay confident in its year-long offensive production in this revenge spot. This line has been on the move from Arlington +3, and so if it ends up being D.C. as the underdog, I think you switch it up. Otherwise, I think the Renegades put a cap on a frustrating season for both squads with a win in the neighborhood of 22-20 to 26-24 -- leaning slightly toward the over.

Houston Roughnecks at Memphis Showboats (Sunday, June 2 at 7 p.m. EDT)

Houston (-2.5), Under 44.5, ML (-142)

The combined record of the two teams entering this game? 2-16, occupying the two lowest slots on the official RotoBrady Power Rankings (and that of many, many others). Even still, this game has some intrigue to it: the winner gets the No. 1 pick in every round of the UFL Draft, and it is at least a chance to end a miserable season on a positive note.

Last week, the Showboats got beat handily by the D.C. Defenders, as the best thing that they had going for them amidst their struggles at QB was the running of Darius Victor. Houston hung in very tough with the Michigan Panthers, losing 26-22, in a game where its quarterback play also severely lacked, but QB Nolan Henderson combined with RB Mark Thompson for 104 yards and a TD on 20 carries. Somehow, Justin Hall also caught for 109 yards and two touchdowns -- which accounts for the vast majority of the Roughnecks' Week 9 passing offense.

I do think that John DeFilippo is a better coach than C.J. Johnson, but the flow hasn't been there for the Boats all season. The Roughnecks have sported a very solid defense for the entire campaign, and what they have consistently working in their ground game is better than anything that Memphis has been able to muster. Josh Love is going to be starting for Memphis, while we are to assume that Nolan Henderson and Reid Sinnett will continue to share time at QB. Whether Troy Williams will get any burn, I do not know. If Darius Victor doesn't get going like he did in Week 9, this could be an ugly ending for Memphis.

The Roughnecks have played much more competitively throughout the course of the season, and Memphis probably has the worst home-field advantage in the league right now despite a solid venue. This could be a close one, so I like a play on Houston straight up, but I think you can lay the points with the Roughnecks, too. Realistically, I expect something in the area of a 21-18 to 24-20 victory. It could be by a lesser margin and end up 24-22 and ruin everything, but I like the majority of possible outcomes to tell us to go under.

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