RADIO
If you are a regular reader of this article, you know that I prefer betting on placements versus outrights. Rafael Campos winning this week having made only two cuts in his last fifteen starts was a reminder of the binary nature of betting in that market. Top 20 bets are not impacted nearly as drastically by random outliers like Campos, as there are still 19 more spots available to cash that bet when Campos has a magical week that not even he saw coming.
We did not bet anything last week as I just don't like making bets at events with tons of wind. Bermuda's strength of field was weaker than Jets' fans belief in their team (trust me, I am one of them), which just makes predicting who plays the best out there on that windy island, that much more difficult.
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights $10
We are going to try something different and just do some short descriptions on why we like each guy in the outright market, since the more I like about them and the more I write about them the worse these dudes seem to play. We are also rolling out eachways at BetRivers on all bets except for Seamus Power (T20 bet) to make sure that we don't get close without a cigar.
Denny McCarthy +2500 $1.68 X2
Denny's dimes on the greens are what have him featuring inside the top 10 in three of his last five appearances here. He also started flashing some form on the approach side of things to end the regular season. If the irons can afford him shorter than normal birdie opportunities, the course history and putter should take care of the rest.
Seamus Power +3300 $1.29
Power has seven top-30 finishes in his last eight starts. Add the fact that he thrives on short, positional courses and his success he has had here with two top fives in his last two starts, we have solid form, great course fit and course history in our favor. No each way on him as we will be betting his top-20 number instead.
Mackenzie Hughes +4000 $1.01 X2
In his last three starts here, he has two runner up finishes to add to a win in 2017. He is also putting with a sceptre of Zeus this year, having gained strokes putting in every start since the Valspar in March (except when he lost strokes at the US Open). Over the last six months, only Max Greyserman has gained more strokes putting than Mackenzie Hughes on the PGA Tour. This course emphasizes the putter. Will the lightning of Golfing Zeus strike twice this week? I think so!
Justin Lower +5500 $0.75 X2
In his fall swing, Lower has a T7, T5 and T2 to his name. He is more accurate off the tee than he is long and his putter has gained strokes in all but one start since June. He either goes up in flames after two close calls the last two weeks, or he finally breaks through and wins this thing. We will take a gamble on the scorching form at this number!
Matt McCarty +6000 $0.70 X2
He won thrice on the KFT tour and then immediately won on the PGA tour after graduating to the tour mid-season thanks to his trio of wins. We could see another budding star make his name known at the RSM again this year, as he has the accuracy off the tee and the putting to convert the birdies needed to succeed here. He has four wins since July. Let's make it five!
Jake Knapp +17500 $0.21 X2
Knapp has actually been sneaky good on shorter courses and is a really good putter. After an 8th place at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Knapp's ball striking plummeted and it may be due to his wrist injury he rehabbed in the fall swing. This is his only event he has played in the fall, so he must feel like he is healthy enough to return and after stalking his instagram, it looks like he played a round with some buddies, so he must be ready to grab his second win on tour this year.
Placements $85
For those of you new to this article, this is really where we make our money! Betting roughly $85 a week on placements this year, we are up over $200 this year so far. Hopefully we can continue to keep that momentum going to finish out the year while adding a few outrights onto the profit side of things too! Below is how we came to the bets we are placing in the placement market.
Here is how we are allocating our funds for this segment.
The Farewell Fiver $5
This week we are just swinging for the fence with these four guys and putting all $5 on the +1517 bet!
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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